Blue Jays vs Red Sox Picks and Predictions: Ray Stays Hot

The Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox will wrap up their three-game set Sunday afternoon at Fenway Park as a couple of lefties do battle with Robbie Ray opposing Martin Perez.

The Jays would be looking for the sweep if it weren’t for another bullpen implosion in the opener. Offensively, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been a force in this series, having launched tape-measure shots in each game and becoming the first player to reach 20 home runs this season.

Despite trailing the Red Sox by 5.5 games, the Jays come into Sunday’s match as a -120 favorite with the total opening at 10.

Here are our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Blue Jays vs. Red Sox for Sunday, June 13.

Blue Jays vs Red Sox game info

• Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
• Date: Sunday, June 13, 2021
• Time: 1:10 p.m. ET
• TV: TBD

Blue Jays vs Red Sox odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

MLB Sharp Money and Line Movement Report

By Patrick Everson

As of 12:15 p.m. ET, Toronto is out to a -134 favorite at FanDuel, after opening -118 Saturday night. Moneyline ticket count is almost dead even, and the Blue Jays are drawing 60 percent of moneyline cash. The total moved from 10 to 10.5 a couple of times and is now 10 (Over -112), with 57 percent of tickets on the Under and 60 percent of money on the Over.

Check out the full line movement for this game

Blue Jays vs Red Sox betting preview

Starting pitchers

Robbie Ray (3-2, 3.36 ERA): Ray leads the Jays’ rotation in punchouts with 82 over 64 innings. He hasn’t lost a start in 10 straight games and is coming off a 13-K performance in his most recent start against the White Sox. Ray always had incredible stuff but it was his control that was an issue. Those problems seem to have been fixed as the lefty has just 14 free passes this year.

Martin Perez (4-3, 3.88 ERA): Perez got knocked around for six runs over two-plus innings last Tuesday and this will be his first start since. He was riding a four-game winning streak before the six-run meltdown. In eight of his 12 starts, the southpaw has allowed two or fewer earned runs. He won’t strike many out but clearing the fence against him is a tough task, as he has surrendered just five home runs in 60 innings.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Blue Jays: A.J. Cole RP (Out), Danny Jansen C (Out), George Springer OF (Out).
Red Sox: Xander Bogaerts SS (Questionable), Kevin Plawecki C (Questionable).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Red Sox are 1-7 SU in their last eight when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Red Sox.

Moneyline pick

The Jays were slight underdogs in the series’ first two games but are favored on Sunday. A big reason for that has to do with who is on the mound for Toronto.

Ray is enjoying one of the best seasons of his career. He currently sits fourth in the AL in K/9 at 11.47, is stranding runners at the second-highest rate, and is third in swinging-strike percentage. Ray is making a lot of batters miss and faces a Boston lineup that sits 20th in wRC+ versus lefties and could possibly be without Xander Bogaerts for the third straight game.

Bogaerts leads the Boston offense in AVG (.324) but has sat out both games of the series due to a knee injury and seems to be more doubtful than probable for Sunday’s game. His replacement, Marwin Gonzalez, has gone 0-for-6 with four strikeouts in the shortstop’s absence. 

The Toronto lineup should be at full strength, though. The Jays are second in the league in home runs and own a .759 OPS which is good for the second-best mark in the AL. In Friday’s loss, every starter had a hit and the Jays went a combined 16-for-42 (.380 AVG). The Jays followed that up with a seven-run performance that included five home runs from five different players. There are no breaks in this lineup.

The Jays’ bullpen is always a scary thing to take into account when riding on the Toronto ML. They bounced back after a disastrous Friday with 3 1-3 innings of one-run ball Saturday and Ray has become reliable to get 18 or more quality outs.

The Red Sox may be a popular ML pick Sunday paying plus money at home, but it's for a reason.

PREDICTION: Toronto (-120)

Over/Under pick

Neither team has been profitable to the Over this year and both clubs are a combined 58-64-3 O/U on the season. Yesterday’s nine-run game just hit the Under (9.5), and if it wasn’t for a bullpen collapse on Friday the Jays would be 0-6-1 O/U across their last seven.

Ray has been giving up the long ball this year but he has minimized the damage with his lack of traffic on the bases. He is stranding an incredible 93 percent of his runners this season, which is a huge advantage for Under bettors when having action on a starter that likes to give up home runs. Ray’s swing-and-miss stuff is also elite this year and left-handed hitters are hitting just .196 with a .579 OPS off the pitcher in 2021. 

Perez will be in tough against the Jays’ lineup, but he has a few things going for him. He's in a bounce-back spot after a rough previous outing. He's pitching on extra rest. The Jays hit right-handed pitching much better and Perez has performed better than most expected this season. He had an impressive 3.06 ERA heading into his last start and Toronto batters are 14-for-63 against Perez over his career — good for a .222 AVG.

Much like taking the Jays on the ML, we have to consider the bullpen in the total. The Toronto bullpen hasn’t been perfect but the management of it can certainly be better. Fans feel that manager Charlie Montoyo has cost his team too many games with his mismanagement of the relievers. They have lost 14 games out of the bullpen and a few of those losses could be tagged to the skipper. Montoyo seemed to be in a better place yesterday after a fairly clean 3 1-3 innings from the 'pen. Friday’s loser, Rafael Dolis, has pitched in two straight days and could be unavailable which wouldn’t be a terrible thing.

We love playing full numbers on totals and are giddy getting a flat 10 on Sunday after Saturday closed at 9.5.

PREDICTION: Under 10 (-110)

Blue Jays vs Red Sox betting card

• Toronto (-120)
• Under 10 (-110)

Picks made on 6/13/2021 at 8:38 a.m. ET

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