Padres vs Cubs Picks and Predictions: Machado Leads Friars to Victory

Chicago's offense came out firing last night, putting up five runs... only to lose by 14 to San Diego. Will the bats on both sides be able to stay hot? Find out in our MLB betting picks and predictions for Padres vs. Cubs.

Last Updated: Jun 16, 2022 10:13 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Manny Machado San Diego Padres MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The San Diego Padres earned a blowout win over the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field on Wednesday. The two teams will now meet for a little afternoon baseball on Thursday, and San Diego will be searching for its fourth win in a row. 

Will the Friars stay hot with a road win over Chicago? Find out in our MLB betting picks and predictions for Padres vs. Cubs on June 16. 

Padres vs Cubs odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The best price you’ll get on San Diego to win this game is -190, but some sportsbooks have it all the way up at -215. That means you can get the Cubs as high as +180 on the moneyline, but this is definitely a game in which the run line comes into play. 

The total in this game is insanely high, as it opened at 10.5 despite the Padres having Joe Musgrove on the mound.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Padres vs Cubs predictions

Picks made on 6/16/2022 at 8:40 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Padres vs Cubs game info

Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
Date: Thursday, June 16, 2022
First pitch: 2:20 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports California, Marquee Sports Network-Chicago

Padres vs Cubs betting preview

Starting pitchers

Joe Musgrove (7-0, 1.50 ERA): If the season were to end today, Musgrove would likely be the NL Cy Young Award winner. The 29-year-old hasn’t yet pitched a game in which he has given up more than two earned runs, and he has actually had four outings in which he has blanked his opponents. The Padres have also won in 10 of Musgrove’s 11 trips to the mound, and he’s 4-0 with a 1.58 ERA in road games. 

Matt Swarmer (1-1, 4.24 ERA): Swarmer had allowed just two earned runs in his previous 12 innings before giving up six earned on seven hits against the New York Yankees in just five innings in his most recent start. The Yankees hit six solo homers off of him, and the righty has now allowed nine homers over three starts this season. He’ll need to do a better job of keeping the ball in the park moving forward. 

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Padres: Wil Myers OF (Out), Mike Clevinger P (Out), Matt Beaty 1B (Out), Pierce Johnson P (Out), Austin Adams P (Out), Fernando Tatis Jr. OF (Out).
Cubs: Drew Smyly P (Out), Jonathan Villar SS (Out), Seiya Suzuki OF (Out), Wade Miley P (Out), Yan Gomes C (Out), Alec Mills P (Out), Sean Newcomb P (Out), Michael Hermosillo OF (Out), Ethan Roberts P (Out), Adbert Alzolay P (Out)
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Padres are 11-3 in their last 14 games as road favorites. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Cubs

Padres vs Cubs picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Run line analysis

This is a game that should be extremely high scoring, which is why the oddsmakers set the total at 10.5 — even with a legitimate Cy Young candidate on the hill for San Diego. With that in mind, it’s highly unlikely that this game will end up being decided by one run.

The Padres have a Top 10 offense in baseball this year, and they now get a crack at a pitcher that has allowed nine homers over his last three starts. There’s just no ceiling on how many runs San Diego can score in this game, but the same can’t be said for Chicago. 

While the Cubs will likely score a few against Musgrove, it’s much easier to trust the Friars righty to keep things from getting out of hand. Even if he lets up three or four runs in six innings here, the Padres have the ability to cover for him with the way they’ll be able to hit Swarmer — in case you haven’t looked, San Diego has a team total of 6.5 runs at Unibet today. 

The Padres are also 11-3 in their last 14 games as road favorites, and they’re 10-2 in their last 12 games against teams with winning percentages of 40% or less. With that said, back them to cover the 1.5 runs and try not to overthink this. 

Prediction: Padres -1.5 (-128 at FanDuel)

Over/Under analysis

These two teams combined to score 24 runs on Wednesday, with the Padres chipping in 19 on their own. San Diego will now look to turn in yet another big offensive performance, and it’s hard to see the team not doing that.

Swarmer gave up three homers over his first two starts this season, but he then gave up six solo shots against the Yankees in his third. That proved that his mistake-prone start to the year was far from a fluke, and the Padres will now look to beat up on him a bit. Meanwhile, the Cubs are capable of scoring a few on Musgrove, even if the pitcher is locked in right now. 

Of course, the total on this game is extremely high, which can definitely scare bettors off on occasion. But taking the Over when the number looks higher than it should is normally the right way to go. And the Over is 7-3 in San Diego’s last 10 games against a right-handed starter, and 17-7-3 in Chicago’s last 27 games as a home underdog. 

Prediction: Over 10.5 (-112 at Unibet)

Best bet

You don’t often see a player with a total of 2.5 total bases, but it’s fitting for Machado in this meeting with the Cubs. There aren’t many players in the league that have Machado’s power, and he now gets to face a pitcher that has allowed nine home runs in only three starts this season. 

Machado’s home run prop isn’t a bad play at +270 on FanDuel, but we’re going with the safer option and taking him to just hit three total bases. That protects you in the event that Machado gets two hits, with one being an extra-base hit. The slugger was 3-for-4 with a homer and four RBI last game, so he should feel pretty good up at the plate this afternoon. 

Pick: Manny Machado Over 2.5 total bases (+110)

MLB parlays

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Use our MLB parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

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