The Milwaukee Brewers took the series opener and are 56% favorites to defend home field again in Game 2.
I have more confidence in their bats making noise against Michael King than San Diego getting to Logan Henderson, which is why I'm taking a Milwaukee-heavy approach with my Padres vs. Brewers prop picks and MLB picks.
Make sure to also read our complete Padres vs. Braves predictions for Oct. 4!
Best Padres vs Brewers props
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Brice Turang Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI |
48% |
| Jake Bauers Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI |
47% |
 Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 hits |
63% |
Prop pick #1: Brice Turang Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI
I am backing Brice Turang for 2+ H+R+RBI up to 53%.
Turang has feasted on right-handed pitchers this season, posting a .291 average and nearly a .400 OBP.
Keeping him off the bases is very difficult, and the Milwaukee Brewers have a highly potent offense that can consistently cash runners in.
Turang is 3-for-11 against Michael King so there is some track record of success. Turang also hit .370 with a .500 wOBA against fastballs, changeups, and sinkers over his final 20 regular-season games.
He was quiet in Game 1, and I’m expecting more tonight.
Prop pick #2: Jake Bauers Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI
Jake Bauers teed off on King’s pitch mix during the regular season, and I'm on his H+R+RBI to 52%.
He hit .316 with a team-leading 15.6% barrel rate against King’s three most-used pitches against left-handed hitters.
His numbers improved down the stretch. Bauers managed a .333 average and an astronomically high 23.1% barrel rate vs. right-handed changeups, sinkers, and fastballs over his final 25 regular season games.
Bauer is fantastic at working counts and patiently waiting for a good pitch. If he gets one in the right spot, that could be serious trouble.
Prop pick #3: Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 hits
I’d play Jackson Merrill for a hit up to 65%.
Logan Henderson is fantastic against batters of both handedness, but he is more vulnerable to lefties.
He allowed a barrel rate of 9.2% and a hard-hit rate of 41.2% vs. left-handed hitters, both noticeably higher than when facing righties.
Merrill will see a steady dose of fastballs and changeups, which should help. When facing right-handed arms, Merrill posted wOBAs of .374 and .458 against those two pitches over his final 30 games.
- Prop picks: 7-5, +1.25 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
