It's been back-to-back winning days here, and it's never too late to get hot. MLB player props and dingers are still on the menu for the last Thursday of the regular season. It's been over eight units in profit this week, and I'm not done.
Jake Burger gets to crush another southpaw, and Ben Rice is showing a lot of value in a lefty-lefty matchup vs. a pitcher with reverse splits.
These are my favorite home run props for Thursday, Sept. 24.
MLB home run props for today
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
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Jake Burger
Ben Rice
Home run prediction: Jake Burger
I got this at 6.2x and have the fair price closer to 5x. It's indoor-Burger bomb time with a great matchup on Thursday afternoon. He gets a lefty in Zac Thornton, and that's good for two reasons.
Reason one: Jake Burger crushes lefties. The Texas Rangers slugger has a .902 OPS against southpaws this season and hit a homer every 13.83 plate appearances vs. lefties, compared to 29.13 PA/HR against right-handers.
The second reason is Thornton. He has the 28th-worst HR/9 among MLB starters in the second half and has a legit 90-plus-pitch leash, so Burger should see him three times. Thornton has allowed 10 home runs over the last 30 days.
I'm loading up on Burger indoors today with my MLB picks.
- Time: 2:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SNY, Rangers Sports Network
Home run prediction: Ben Rice
I got this at 6.2x and have a fair price of 4.75x. Ben Rice has seen Ian Seymour six times and taken him deep twice. It may be lefty-lefty, and that's priced in, but Seymour is a reverse-splits pitcher who allows damage to left-handed hitters, giving us some value on the long ball.
The Tampa lefty has allowed a home run to right-handers once every 25.21 plate appearances compared to 16.45 against lefties. Oddsmakers always price in the lefty-lefty matchup in the pitcher's favor, but there are spots to take advantage of it, like Juan Soto yesterday and Rice today.
This is a 6x price on a guy with 41 dingers on the season, coming off a two-homer game and facing one of the worst HR/9 pitchers on the slate as a lefty at Yankee Stadium.
- Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: YES, Rays.TV
- HR picks: 41-149, -7.2. units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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