The Milwaukee Brewers (47%) are underdogs against the Philadelphia Phillies as they look to take another step toward clinching the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage until the World Series.
Andrew Painter has had a miserable time slowing high-end offenses, and my Brewers vs. Phillies prediction expects that to happen again tonight.
Let's break down MLB picks for Thursday, Sept. 24.
Who will win Brewers vs Phillies today: Brewers
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
The Milwaukee Brewers aren't underdogs every day, and I’m jumping on the opportunity at 52%.
Philadelphia Phillies starter Andrew Painter has pitched better lately, but that coincides with a drop in opponent quality. He has yet to put together a good performance against an elite offense.
Painter has posted a 9.81 xERA and 12.32 ERA over five starts against Top 10 teams in OBP vs. right-handed pitching. The Brewers, of course, rank first.
They are a miserable offense to slow down, and should provide their patchwork pitching game plan enough run support to get a result.
COVERS INTEL: Andrew Painter ranks in the 18th percentile in Pitching Run Value and is no match for the league's second-highest-scoring offense.
Brewers vs Phillies Over/Under pick: Over 7.5
I am on the Over to 56%.
Painter has allowed four runs or more in four of five starts against Top 10 opponents in OBP against righties. That includes a five-spot against the Brewers back in June.
I expect Milwaukee's bats to get to Painter, doing the heavy lifting towards clearing this total.
Bryse Wilson is expected to get his first major league innings in nearly a month. The bullpen backing him up ranks middle of the pack in most categories in September, and is unlikely to slam the door shut entirely on the Phillies.
Brewers vs Phillies home run prediction: Jake Bauers
Jake Bauers has hit for plenty of power against right-handed pitchers, posting a .208 ISO and 14.6% barrel rate.
Painter ranks in the 29th percentile in HR/9 when facing left-handed bats. Bauers has left the park in 28.9% of his games against a starting pitcher who sits in the 35th percentile or worse in that category.
What I love is that Bauers has even better power outputs against lefties. This is not a situation where the Phillies can manage him out of the game or neutralize his bat by targeting him with southpaws once Painter departs.
- ML/RL picks: 122-101, -2.86 units
- Over/Under picks: 117-100-6, +3.46 units
Brewers vs Phillies weather
Temperatures in the mid-60s are expected, with winds blowing in from the center. Boost to the pitchers.
Brewers vs Phillies odds
- Moneyline: Brewers 47% | Phillies 54%
- Run line: Brewers +1.5 (64%) | Phillies -1.5 (37%)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (53%) | Under 7.5 (48%)
Brewers vs Phillies trend
Philadelphia has hit the game total Over in 12 of their last 18 home games (+6.50 units, 33% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Phillies.
How to watch Brewers vs Phillies and game info
| Location | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date | Thursday, September 24, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | Brewers.TV, NBC Sports Philadelphia |
| Brewers starting pitcher | Bryse Wilson (0-0, 3.67 ERA) |
| Phillies starting pitcher | Andrew Painter (3-10, 5.59 ERA) |
Brewers vs Phillies latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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