The New York Mets and New York Yankees wrap up their Subway Series on Sunday Night Baseball, and a pair of lefties are toeing the rubber in the rubber match at Yankee Stadium.
While both lineups hang with the best in baseball against left-handed arms, my top Mets vs. Yankees predictions and MLB picks expect the Bronx Bombers to come out on top Sunday, May 18.
Mets vs Yankees prediction for Sunday Night Baseball
My Mets vs Yankees best bet: Yankees -1.5 (+122 at Caesars)
New York Yankees starter Max Fried has passed all tests in pinstripes to start his tenure with the storied franchise. He’s 6-0 with a sterling 1.11 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and solid 3.55 xFIP, and his Stuff+ marks are up across the board per FanGraphs.
Obviously, Fried isn’t going to limit opposing batters to a .190 batting average and .237 BABIP all season, but the pending negative regression will be minor based on his solid underlying numbers.
I’m confident the veteran will navigate his way through the New York Mets lineup without too many hiccups — even with The Metropolitans sporting a fifth-ranked .341 wOBA against southpaws.
Mets starter David Peterson, on the other hand, has his hands full with the Bronx Bombers. New York paces the majors in wOBA (.377) and ISO (.239) against lefties, and he’s surrendered a healthy 51.5% hard-hit rate.
Additionally, there’s a noticeable gap between Peterson’s ERA (2.94) and his xFIP (3.89) over the past two seasons. I’m expecting the Yankees to have success against the southpaw tonight.
Caesars QuickPick: Our Mets vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Yankees -1.5
Pete Alonso Over 0.5 hits
Anthony Volpe Over 0.5 hits
Mets first baseman Pete Alonso has faced Fried 42 times and sports a respectable .278 batting average and .853 OPS against the lefties. Of course, Alonso has also teed off against southpaws to the tune of a .360 wOBA and .848 OPS over the past three years.
Yankees shortstop Anthony Volpe has also had his way against lefties this season with a .341 average, .431 wOBA, and 1.002 OPS. As noted, I also expect Peterson to struggle a bit given the highlighted hard-hit rate.
Plus, I value Alonso snapping a mini funk with two hits in Saturday’s game following a 5-for-36 stretch (1.39 AVG), while Volpe has a hit in seven of his past 10 while sporting a .289 AVG and .825 OPS.
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Mets vs Yankees odds
Mets vs Yankees live odds
Mets vs Yankees opening odds
- Moneyline: Mets +141 | Yankees -161
- Run line: Mets +1.5 (-145) | Yankees -1.5 (-118)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Odds courtesy of Caesars.
Mets vs Yankees trend
The New York Yankees have covered the run line in 12 of their last 23 games at home (+4.20 Units / 17% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Yankees.
How to watch Mets vs Yankees and game info
| Location | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date | Sunday, 5-18-2025 |
| First pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
| Mets starting pitcher | David Peterson (2025: 2-2, 3.05ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Max Fried (2025: 6-0, 1.11 ERA) |
Mets vs Yankees latest injuries
Mets vs Yankees weather
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