The Houston Texans have rolled off six wins in a row and are the largest favorites of the week in their home matchup against the 2-12 Las Vegas Raiders at NRG Stadium on Sunday, December 21.
My early Raiders vs. Texans predictions and NFL picks are calling for the good times to continue for the Houston defense, and for head coach DeMeco Ryans to be one step closer to a third straight postseason berth following a convincing Week 16 win.
Raiders vs Texans predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
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Early Raiders vs Texans spread pick: Texans -14.5
My initial lean was to take the points with the Las Vegas Raiders, especially with the Houston Texans in a potential look-ahead spot. The Los Angeles Chargers are up next for Houston in an AFC tape-measuring matchup with potential postseason implications in Week 17.
Still, Vegas has lost eight straight, and six in a row on the road by an average of 22.2 points per game.
Of course, Houston also sends out an elite defense and just put 40 on the board at home in Week 15 against the Cardinals.
So, with the Texans ranking second in defensive DVOA while allowing the lowest EPA per play and fewest points per game, I’m not sure how the Raiders put enough points on the board to cover.
Additionally, Houston is only sitting seventh in the AFC standings, so I don't anticipate the Texans taking the Raiders lightly.
Early Raiders vs Texans total pick: Under 37.5
Houston holding Vegas in check should enable a comfortable lead and shorten the game by leaning on the rushing attack. There’s also potential that Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans rests starters in a blowout situation.
The Raiders rank 32nd in EPA per play and 31st in offensive DVOA while averaging just 10.7 points per game over the past six weeks, so finding a groove is asking a lot after gaining 75 total yards – 1.8 per play – during a 31-0 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles last week.
The Texans allow the third-shortest drives, while the Raiders surrender the second longest, and there’s also a sizable gap on offense, with Houston ranking 13th longest and Vegas checking in at 30th.
I expect Houston to shift into cruise control and milk the clock in the second half, which will go a long way in keeping this total Under the number.
Raiders vs Texans odds
- Raiders vs. Texans spread: Texans -14.5
- Raiders vs. Texans moneyline: Raiders +830, Texans -1400
- Raiders vs. Texans Over/Under: 37.5
How to watch Raiders vs Texans
- Raiders vs. Texans matchup
- Date: Sunday, December 21, 2025, 4:25 p.m. ET
- City: Houston, TX
- Venue: NRG Stadium
- TV: CBS
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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