Mets vs Yankees Props Picks & Best Bets for Sunday Night Baseball

The Subway Series will look for a weekend winner as the New York Yankees and New York Mets meet on Sunday Night baseball with a three-game set tied up, 1-1.

I see some value in Yankees star SP Max Fried in my Sunday Night Baseball player props and MLB picks for May 18.

Mets vs Yankees Sunday Night Baseball props

• Fried o18.5 outs (+133)
• Alonso 1+ RBI (+180)
• Grisham 1+ hits (-142)

Mets vs Yankees props for Sunday Night Baseball

Max Fried Over 18.5 outs recorded (+133 at Caesars)

I've backed Max Fried in every start this season, and my confidence in him remains unwavering. There's no reason to shy away now in his biggest outing yet — at least the most significant start possible in mid-May.

The 18.5 outs prop Over may seem ambitious, but Fried has cleared it in two of his last three starts and six of nine overall. He also did so comfortably against the New York Mets last year. His elite ground-ball rate is the key.

Fried has evolved from his earlier days as a slightly more strikeout-dependent thrower to a more efficient one. His K-rate has dipped from 27% two years ago to 23% this season, reflecting a shift toward inducing quick outs. With a 52% ground-ball rate — among the league's best — and an average of 97 pitches per start, Fried has become even more of an innings-eater than before. 

The Mets' 45% ground ball rate ranks 10th in MLB. In four starts since April against teams with similar or higher rates, Fried has averaged 6.6 innings (19.8 outs). 

Additionally, Fried's fastball, yielding a .140 batting average, should exploit the Mets' surprising weakness against high velocity this year (beyond their Top 3 hitters).

Pete Alonso 1+ RBI (+180 at Caesars)

I don't think either team scores a ton tonight, making RBI bets tough. However, with my fair price of +162 on Pete Alonso's RBI prop, I'm inclined to be involved with a slight edge.

Alonso is one of a handful of Mets with a lengthy history against Fried. The Polar Bear has had 36 head-to-head duels with him, with some impressive success: Two homers, seven RBI, and a .853 OPS.

Add in situational aspects of things like the wind blowing out to center close to 20 mph and the platoon splits, and you'll see that there's at least an increased chance that Alonso will collect an RBI completely by himself with a longball. 

He usually bats third behind Juan Soto, which holds a lot of weight. 

The Yankee villain hasn't made his mark on this series yet with just one hit in six plate appearances. Part of that is that he's been pitched well, but he's also been pitched carefully with four walks. He also has a strong history with Fried.

The chances for Pete to step into the box with at least one Met on base are elevated today. There won't be many chances for runs to be scored based on how we see the pitcher opposing them performing. However, this represents the best chance. 

Trent Grisham 1+ hits (-142 at Caesars)

This price feels like a steal, and my -172 projection backs it up. 

Like Fried, David Peterson thrives as an elite ground-ball pitcher, with his success tied to inducing weak contact. Aside from Cody Bellinger, today's Yankee lineup has no hitter in it with a lower career ground-ball rate than Trent Grisham. That should make him a tough matchup.

Grisham brings plenty to like. Against lefties, he boasts a .178 ISO, a .270+ batting average, and a .292 BABIP. Like we've previously noted, a high fly-ball rate pairs well with the brisk winds expected tonight, too. That gives him an elevated chance for home runs and RBI.

Peterson leans heavily on his sinker (28% of pitches), and while Grisham's actual numbers against sinkers this season are underwhelming, his .348 xBA and .538 xSLG scream positive regression. I'm betting it starts here.

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