This NL East series continues this afternoon with the Philadelphia Phillies hosting the New York Mets at Citizens Bank Park. MLB odds have New York as a -116 favorite, while the total sits at 8.5.
My Mets vs. Phillies predictions are bullish on New York, primarily due to the pitching matchup.
Mets vs Phillies prediction
My best bet
Mets -1.5 (+142 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The Philadelphia Phillies will call up left-hander Kolby Allard from Triple-A to provide a needed spot start before returning to the top of the rotation.
Through four appearances in the MLB this season, Allard is 2-0 with a 3.50 ERA.
If he qualified, the southpaw would rank in the bottom half of the league in average exit velocity and barrel rate. This expected regression is likely to come against the New York Mets, a team that ranks Top 10 in runs scored per game and OPS.
Meanwhile, right-hander Luis Severino gets the ball for New York. Severino is 10-6 through 28 starts with a 3.74 ERA and 1.25 WHIP.
His analytics are equally strong as the right-hander ranks in the top half of the league in xERA, and hard-hit rate. Entering this matchup in particularly good form, Severino has allowed one or fewer runs in four of his past five starts.
He is 3-0 over that stretch with a 1.95 ERA, and all three of those wins came by at least a two-run margin.
Mets vs Phillies same-game parlay (SGP)
Mets -1.5
Kolby Allard Under 3.5 strikeouts
Brandon Nimmo Over 0.5 hits
We are also going to fade Allard in the prop market as he ranks, if he officially qualified, in the bottom half of the league in both whiff and strikeout rates. If we are simultaneously fading Allard and the Mets to win by two or more runs, then a highly correlated outcome would be for members of the Mets to record some hits.
Enter Brandon Nimmo, who has recorded at least one hit in 11 of his past 17 games. While he has never faced Allard, I’m not too concerned considering that the southpaw possesses a .258 xBA.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mets vs Phillies odds
Mets vs Phillies live odds
Mets vs Phillies opening odds
- Moneyline: New York -118 | Philadelphia +100
- Run line: New York -1.5 (+140) | Philadelphia +1.5 (-170)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-124) | Under 8.5 (+102)
Mets vs Phillies moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- New York opened as a -118 favorite and has since been bet down to -116.
- The total opened at 8.5 and remains at that number at the time of writing.
- It's more likely that this total moves to 9.0 rather than 8.0, given that both teams rank in the top half of the league in runs scored per game, OPS, and home runs.
Mets vs Phillies trend
New York has won by at least two runs in 10 of its past 13 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Phillies.
Mets vs Phillies game info
| Location: | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Saturday, 9-14-2024 |
| First pitch: | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SNY, NBCSP |
| Mets starting pitcher: | Luis Severino (10-6, 3.74 ERA) |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Kolby Allard (2-0, 3.50 ERA) |
Mets vs Phillies latest injuries
Mets vs Phillies weather
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