It’s the rubber match of a three-game set that somebody’s gotta win, as the Miami Marlins visit the Detroit Tigers on May 15.
Miami is baseball’s worst team, and my Marlins vs. Tigers prediction explains why I'll happily drink the juice take Detroit moneyline. Find out all about it in my MLB picks ahead.
Marlins vs Tigers prediction
My best bet
Pick (-168 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
Neither team is coming into this one on a particularly stellar streak, with each club putting up just three wins in the last 11.
While the Miami Marlins scored the lone run in a 1-0 game that went 10 innings Tuesday, much of its woes comes from a pop-gun offense. The Marlins have scored the fourth-fewest runs in the league and are 29th in on-base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS.
It’s not likely to get much help on the mound either. Lefty Trevor Rogers has had a nightmarish start to 2024, going 0-6 with a 6.57 ERA and 1.86 WHIP. The Marlins have lost all eight of his starts.
The Detroit Tigers are almost as bad offensively, ranking Bottom 10 in runs scored, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS.
What sets them apart — and what’s kept them at 21-21 — is an above average pitching staff, which boasts aseventh-best 3.36 team ERA. Detroit’s staff is holding opponent's bats to a .223 average (eighth), while tied for fourth fewest walks allowed this year.
It'll hand the ball to righty Casey Mize, who is 1-1 this season with a 3.58 ERA. Detroit has won five of his seven starts, and Mise has allowed two or fewer earned runs in five of them.
Miami’s six road wins on the year are the third fewest in the bigs, and its win in Detroit was just the second away win in the last 11 outings.
Take the Tigers at home Wednesday.
Marlins vs Tigers same-game parlay (SGP)
Tigers moneyline
Spencer Torkelson Over 1.5 total bases
Casey Mize Under 5.5 hits allowed
Tigers first baseman Spencer Torkelson picked up a hit in Tuesday’s loss, giving him a base knock in nine straight contests — his longest streak of the season. He’s -260 to get a hit off Rogers to make it 10, but those odds would really take some steam out of a three-legged SGP.
Instead I'm targeting total bases, and a more digestable +105 odds to go Over 1.5. Torkelson had homered in back-to-back games prior to Tuesday, and has picked up at least two bags in five games during this run. He hasn’t faced Rogers this season, but I’ll always take the hot hitter against the struggling pitcher.
Let’s wrap this with Casey Mize, who has a total set of 5.5 hits allowed against the Marlins.
I’ve already talked about Miami’s offensive ineptitude, but Mize has held his own this season too, making it a good match to jump on the Under. In seven starts this year, Mize has only allowed six or more hits in two starts, with every other start sticking at exactly five.
Only two Marlins have ever faced him and they are a combined 0-for-7, with a pair of strikeouts. This one is cutting it tight, but look for Mize to handle one of the worst hitting teams in the league.
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Marlins vs Tigers odds
Marlins vs Tigers live odds
Marlins vs Tigers opening odds
- Run line: Miami +1.5 (-155) | Detroit -1.5 (+125)
- Moneyline: Miami +140 | Detroit -165
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-105) | Under 8.5 (-115)
Marlins vs Tigers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Marlins have won six of the last eight head-to-head meetings, but rightfully come into this matchup as the underdog.
- The total opened up at 8.5, was bet down to 8.0, but has since returned to 8.5.
- The Over has gone 6-3-1 in the last 10 matchups between these teams and has hit in four of Miami's last five contests.
Marlins vs Tigers trend
Miami has lost 11 straight as road underdogs following a win. Find more MLB betting trends for Marlins vs Tigers.
Marlins vs Tigers game info
| Location: | Comerica Park, Detroit, MI |
| Date: | Wednesday, 5-15-2024 |
| First pitch: | 1:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSFL, BSDET |
| Marlins starting pitcher: | Trevor Rogers (0-6, 6.57 ERA) |
| Tigers starting pitcher: | Casey Mize (1-1, 3.58 ERA) |
Marlins vs Tigers latest injuries
Marlins vs Tigers weather
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