It's a full-slate Wednesday with some afternoon action, and the MLB player props and home runs are popping on the projections today.
Alec Burleson will get the afternoon party started with some of the best hitting conditions on the slate, and I'm rolling with Fernando Tatis to run the table and homer in his third straight game at Coors Field.
These are my favorite MLB home run props for Wednesday, Sept. 16.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
MLB home run props for today
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Player to hit a HR | Chance |
|---|---|
 Alec Burleson |
19.2% |
 Fernando Tatis Jr. |
25% |
 Ozzie Albies |
13.2% |
| 💲Today's HR combo | 162.43x |
Home run prediction: Alec Burleson
The Cardinals offense is circled in my notes, and the lefty bat of Alec Burleson is a buy today for a dinger at 22.2% or better.
They get wind blowing out and 90-degree temperatures, which aren't common for mid-September. That's one check for the bats.
Burleson's biggest edge is the pitching matchup. The Cards get to beat up on Anthony Molina, who is starting now and should get hit hard for 75+ pitches today.
He's allowed 12 runs over 12 innings in his three starts and has a 32% groundball rate, which means a lot of fly balls.
Lefty bats are hitting .323 against Molina over his career, with a homer every 20.25 plate appearances, while Burleson has a .550 slugging rate over his last three series with two dingers.
- Time: 1:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Cardinals.TV, NBCS BA
Home run prediction: Fernando Tatis Jr.
I'm heading to Coors to take Fernando Tatis to go yard, and there is room here with a fair probability of 29.4%. The projections are a little low on him, as he's priced as the third-most probable Padre to go deep, but he has already gone deep in each game of this series and might have his best matchup today.
Mason Adams is the day's biggest pitcher fade. In the second half of the season, he has the 20th-worst barrel rate and fourth-worst HR/FB rate among all MLB starters. He's given up five dingers in 18 innings, with only 14 of those outs coming at Coors — where he has allowed two homers.
He's also a reverse-splits pitcher and gets hit harder by right-handed bats.
Only Pete Crow-Armstrong has more homers than Tatis in the second half, and Tatis is slugging at a Top-10 rate since the break.
- Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Rockies.TV, Padres.TV
- HR picks: 38-136, -10.46 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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