Today's MLB expert picks cover the full slate of games, starting with the matinee between the Chicago White Sox and the Cleveland Guardians.
The nightcap between the Los Angeles Angels and Seattle Mariners caps off our MLB picks, with analyst Josh Inglis eyeing the underdog Halos to protect their home turf on Wednesday, Sept. 16.
MLB expert picks for today
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Josh Inglis: LAA ML |
45% |
 Jon Metler: ATL ML |
44% |
 Joe Osborne: PHI -1.5 |
51% |
 Dustin Saracini: CLE -1.5 |
43% |
Probabilities courtesy of Polymarket. For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Angels moneyline
Price: 45¢ at Polymarket
I have this priced at 49%.
The Seattle Mariners are done for the season, and this road trip is getting ugly. Seattle could get swept by the Los Angeles Angels after dropping its series to the Athletics.
The pitching is hitting a wall, with the fourth-worst xERA in September, and the pitching matchup might favor the home team, with Yusei Kikuchi looking sharp over his last three games, allowing three runs over 17 innings while striking out a batter per inning.
George Kirby is coming off back-to-back 100-pitch games for the first time this season and is pitching to a 6.48 ERA over the last 30 days with an ugly 1.71 WHIP.
The Mariners also have to head to Colorado after this series for a weekend set, making this one of the longer travel spots on the board and a potential getaway-letdown spot for the visitors.
- Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Mariners.TV, ABTV
Jon Metler's expert pick: Braves moneyline
Price: 44¢ at Polymarket
At 44%, give me the Atlanta Braves to defeat the Chicago Cubs, as I price them closer to 49% in this matchup.
JR Ritchie is on the mound for Atlanta, but I don't expect him to pitch deep.
Fortunately, the Braves have the bullpen depth to piece together a strong pitching performance against the Cubs' left-handed bats. Dylan Lee hasn't pitched yet in this series, Raisel Iglesias has always been tough on left-handed hitters because of his changeup, and Atlanta also has lefties Ray Kerr and Dylan Dodd available in the bullpen.
This breakdown is all about neutralizing Pete Crow-Armstrong's and Michael Busch's power, if that wasn't obvious already.
On the other side, the Cubs' bullpen ranks last in fWAR over the last 30 days, which gives Atlanta another advantage if this game comes down to the late innings.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- How to watch: BravesVsn, Marquee
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Phillies -1.5
Price: 51¢ at Polymarket
This is a disastrous setup for the Washington Nationals.
Rookie Jared Simpson opens a bullpen game after allowing three earned runs without recording an out in his last outing. Behind him? A bullpen with an embarrassing 8.39 ERA and MLB’s worst FIP over the last two weeks.
Meanwhile, Zack Wheeler is rounding into form at the right time, allowing just three total runs across his last three starts. He gets a Nationals lineup ranked 28th in OPS against righties over the past two weeks.
Expect the Philadelphia Phillies to win comfortably and cover the -1.5.
- Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
- How to watch: NBC Sports Philadelphia, Nationals.TV
Dustin Saracini's expert pick: Guardians -1.5
Price: 43¢ at Polymarket
Honey, wake up, Parker Messick is on the mound again, and with a price as low as 43 cents, it's time to invest.
Yes, the Cleveland Guardians rookie has done an incredible job this year, posting a 3.07 xERA and 4.8% barrel rate, putting him in the conversation for AL Rookie of the Year. It helps that he has a pretty strong history against the Chicago White Sox, who own just a .212 xBA across 76 plate appearances against the young lefty.
With the Guards gunning for a playoff spot, he's the guy you want on the mound. Cleveland has something special cooking, and I'm expecting that to continue with Anthony Kay going for Chicago — he's coughed up 13 earned runs across his last 14 innings pitched.
I have this priced closer to 48%.
Check out Jason Wilson's complete White Sox vs. Guardians predictions.
- Time: 1:10 p.m. ET
- How to watch: ESPN
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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