It's an all-day MLB slate with a lot of edges and angles to look for, with playoff races, workloads, and paternity listers. MLB pitcher props are looking ripe, and strikeout props are always the first place to look.
Both Max Scherzer and MacKenzie Gore might be short leashes thanks to recent form and their teams' playoff stance, and Keider Montero has been busy between his last start and today and is worth the fade in his walk market.
These are my favorite MLB player props for Wednesday, Sept. 16.
Best MLB strikeout props and starting pitcher picks today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Max Scherzer |
Under 4.5 strikeouts | +100 |
 MacKenzie Gore |
Under 4.5 strikeouts | +117 |
 Keider Montero |
Over 1.5 walks allowed | +141 |
Strikeout prop: Max Scherzer Under 4.5 strikeouts (+100)
After giving up nine runs over his last two starts, and with the Jays' playoff hopes clinging to a thread seemingly every day, Max Scherzer's leash could be closer to 70 than 90 today in a must-win game.
Mad Max went 15 outs in his last start but was pummeled for six runs over the first two innings. He was still pushed to eat some innings, but failed to hit five Ks for the 13th time in 15 starts.
The Tigers' K% is heavily priced into this line today, and it's too much. Scherzer is on his last legs and isn't getting the punchouts he used to, even on 90-pitch leashes.
The Jays' bullpen was used heavily yesterday, but they should be able to make a move and bring up another arm for today. Spencer Miles can also eat multiple innings if needed.
The matchup is too heavily priced in for a pitcher at the end of his career, and I have this fair price at -125/-130, with the projections putting that fair price closer to -105.
- Time: 3:07 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Sportsnet, Detroit SportsNet
Strikeout prop: MacKenzie Gore Under 4.5 strikeouts (+117)
The Rangers have to make a quick decision with MacKenzie Gore today as they sit two games back of the final Wild Card spot with a dozen games to go.
Gore is approaching a career-high in innings pitched and has gone 76 and 68 pitches over his last two starts as he stumbles toward the finish line. The command has been an issue, with 14 walks over his last 16 innings against just 11 Ks.
It has caught up to him with nine runs allowed over his last two starts, which lasted a combined 21 outs with three total punchouts.
The projections like his Over here, but I'm not expecting that projected 91-pitch leash. I have this priced a little better than a coin flip, as that pitch leash has a wide range of outcomes and the projections are the ceiling.
The Rangers have all their long relievers available and will be on standby with everything on the line.
- Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Rangers Sports Network, NESN
Pitcher walks prop: Keider Montero Over 1.5 pitcher walks (+141)
The short leash is factored in here, and the projections love this Over at +141, with 81 pitches projected and 1.49 walks, with a fair price of +115/+120.
Keider Montero has at least one walk in eight straight starts despite not throwing more than 88 pitches. He's been profitable to this Over since August, but there is another angle that isn't being priced in.
Now, this might be a little subjective, but pitchers are creatures of habit, and betting against them when that schedule is disrupted is something I'm always looking for.
Montero just came back from the paternity list. He was put on it four days ago, has been to Venezuela and back, and was just there for the birth of his first child. His routine is off, and his focus in a lost season might be at its lowest of the season. To me, the command might be the first thing to go.
The Jays take a lot of pitches, and the price is worth the ride for an afternoon wager.
- Time: 3:07 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Sportsnet, Detroit SportsNet
- Prop picks: 35-33, +4.29 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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