Baseball all day long! We have so much to get into from the MLB player props market today. Let's dive in!
Join me as I break down three of my favorite MLB picks for Wednesday, Sept. 16, including why the Riley Greene is going to pop off against Max Scherzer.
Our best MLB player props for today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Luis Garcia Jr. |
Over 1.5 Total Base | -104 |
 JR Ritchie |
Over 2.5 Walks Allowed | +141 |
 Riley Greene |
Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBI | -115 |
Luis Garcia Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (-104)
Run Luis Garcia Jr. BACK!
The New York Yankees first baseman did cash his hits, runs and RBI prop last night, but failed to go over 1.5 total bases. This afternoon against Minnesota Twins right-hander Zebby Matthews should get him back on track.
Garcia, over his last 10 games, has a .486 SLG, .550 xSLG, while generating just a 32% ground-ball rate, a hard-hit rate over 57% and a near-18% barrel rate.
Matthews has been struggling against left-handed hitters as of late. The last 30 he has faced are owning him, producing a 50% hard-hit rate, 13.6% barrel rate and 31.8% ground-ball rate. They also have a .304 xBA, .627 xSLG and .572 xwOBA.
If you like multiple Yankees, take their first-five team total. However, for this prop, do not take it below -105.
- Time: 1:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: YES, MNNT
JR Ritchie Over 2.5 Walks Allowed (+141)
We cashed Martin Perez over 1.5 walks allowed in the first inning last night, and now we are running it right back with another Atlanta Brave struggling to give up walks, that being right-hander JR Ritchie.
We are sweating out an extra walk, but Ritchie owns a 15.63% walk rate over his last five starts. Overall on the season, he is still at 14%. Against the last 30 left-handed hitters faced, Ritchie owns a 23.3% walk rate. The Chicago Cubs lineup will have five left-handed hitters this evening. Smirk
So far this season at home, the Cubs own the highest walk rate in baseball. Over their last 12 games, they have maintained an 11% walk rate, which ranks third-best.
Three is a lot of walks, but with how much Ritchie has been struggling to find the zone, this could be a fun sweat at +141.
Take this down to +120.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: BravesVsn, MARQ
Riley Greene Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBI (-115)
One of the most stressful teams to back for me personally is the Detroit Tigers, but Mr. Riley Greene is in a great spot against Toronto Blue Jays veteran Max Scherzer, who has been playing some great ball as of late.
However, the last 30 left-handed hitters he has faced do own a .333 xBA, .562 xSLG and .369 xwOBA, while generating a 46.2% hard-hit rate and 76.9% elevation rate.
Greene, across his last ten games, owns a .925 SLG, .907 xSLG and .450 ISO, while making 51.6% hard contact, 25.8% barrel rate and just a 19.4% ground-ball rate.
According to Batters-Box, through 77 elite ratings over the last three seasons, Greene has covered this prop 54.55% of the time.
Take it down to -120.
- Time: 3:07p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Sportsnet, DSN
- Prop picks: 513-992, +16.7 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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