Mariners vs Yankees Prediction, Picks, and Odds for Tonight’s MLB Game

The Yankees have been on fire of late but have a genuinely difficult matchup against Logan Gilbert and the Mariners. With Marcus Stroman starting for New York, runs may be hard to come by.

Chris Hatfield - Betting Analyst at
Chris Hatfield • Betting Analyst
May 20, 2024 • 14:20 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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The New York Yankees will look to keep rolling as they host the Seattle Mariners for a three-game series.

The Yankees have won seven straight, standing as the best active streak in baseball. However, our Mariners vs. Yankees predictions are more interested in the total. Seattle will look to halt New York's streak tonight, but the Mariners will arrive just playing average baseball, going 5-5 in their last 10. 

Read on for my free MLB picks on Monday, May 20th.

Mariners vs Yankees prediction

My best bet
Under 8 (-110 at DraftKings)

My analysis

The pricing on this matchup is about right. I had the New York Yankees as -130 favorites, which gives me nothing of value in the current lines. With that in mind, I'm looking elsewhere for my best bet and heading to the totals market.

Both pitchers have a good matchup and come in safely below my projection of 6.5.

Logan Gilbert will take the mound for the Seattle Mariners and should have some decent success cooling the Yankees bats. From a basic standpoint, this lineup has not had much success against Gilbert — quite the opposite. Stars Aaron Judge and Juan Soto lead the way in most career at-bats against the right-hander and have one combined hit between them in 16 plate appearances. That's hard to believe, but it highlights some of Gilbert's underlying metrics.

Gilbert has consistently produced whiffs in his relatively brief career. This season, he's in the 85th percentile of baseball in whiff rate. New York has improved its whiff rate compared to the last few seasons, but it will still be an issue tonight. The Yankees rank in the league's bottom half in this metric over the past 14 days.

I also continue to like to buy low on Yankees righty Marcus Stroman. He had a rough patch but has put it beyond him with back-to-back shutout starts. Many metrics are still unkind to Stroman, like his expected ERA, which is a run and a half worse than the actual one.

However, I don't think the Mariners can attack this area too well. Stroman maintains an elite groundball rate in the Top 8% of baseball, and he can successfully induce them here. 

Mariners vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)

Under 8

Logan Gilbert Over 5.5 strikeouts

Alex Verdugo to get a hit

Gilbert fanning six or more Yankees directly ties into my best bet. Though New York has improved the strikeout issues, it's had a decent amount of whiffs lately amid the win streak.

The last piece is Alex Verdugo to get a hit. I'm backing his substantial historical numbers against Gilbert here, along with the lowest whiff rate at 12% among Yankees hitters this season.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Mariners vs Yankees odds

Mariners vs Yankees live odds

Mariners vs Yankees opening odds

  • Run line: Seattle +1.5 | New York -1.5
  • Moneyline: Seattle +108 | New York -126
  • Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5

Mariners vs Yankees spread and Over/Under analysis

  • Bettors are up 3.8 units on the Bronx Bombers over the last 10 games. 
  • Yankees opened up as -126 favorites, and that number has gone down 10 cents already, with New York around -136 in most spots.
  • Neither team has a decisive advantage over the other as the two are 5-5 against one another in the previous 10 meetings.

Mariners vs Yankees trend

The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 14 games (+12.65 Units / 74% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Yankees

Mariners vs Yankees game info

Location: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
Date: Monday, 5-20-2024
First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
Mariners starting pitcher: Logan Gilbert
(3-2, 3.07 ERA)
Yankees starting pitcher: Marcus Stroman
(3-2, 3.33 ERA)

Mariners vs Yankees latest injuries

Mariners vs Yankees weather

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