The postseason is around the corner, but there are still a couple more days to smash some MLB player props and cash some dingers, even on these small-slate days.
Drew Gilbert's price is tough to overlook vs. a righty pitcher, Coby Mayo might get three at-bats vs. a tired Blue Jays bullpen, and CJ Abrams is putting the final touches on a breakout season.
These are my favorite home run props for Monday, Sept. 21.
MLB home run props for today
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Home run prediction: Drew Gilbert
This is the best +EV homer on the board, with a fair price of 7.8x. Drew Gilbert gets Zebby Matthews, whose HR/9 numbers over the last two years make him a great HR target, even on the small slate.
Gilbert has cashed some long-odds homers over the past two weeks at 10x and better. He's a righty-platoon guy who doesn't see many left-handed pitchers, but Matthews has a 100-pitch leash, and the Twins' bullpen has stronger righty options than lefties.
On a three-game slate, it's time to trust the projections even more.
- Time: 9:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBCS BA, Twins.TV
Home run prediction: Coby Mayo
Coby Mayo has some batter-vs.-pitcher numbers in his favor as the only Oriole to take Trey Yesavage deep over five plate appearances. The Toronto starter is coming off the 15-day IL after being out since early August and has made just one rehab start. The Jays are desperate, and Yesavage might not be in the best form after going just two outs in his only rehab game. His leash could be three innings at most.
Mayo is hitting out of the four-hole and has five homers over his last 12 games. This is a hot stick at a great price on a short slate against what could be 21 outs from the Toronto bullpen, which used seven arms yesterday. The wheels are falling off the Jays as the finish line approaches.
- Time: 6:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MASN, Sportsnet
Home run prediction: CJ Abrams
It's tough for me to say no to CJ Abrams at 6x or better today. River Ryan is starting for the Tigers and was a key piece in the Tarik Skubal deal, but also missed three months with a hamstring injury. With a short leash, Ryan is more of an opener for Keider Montero. Ryan pitched to a 4.46 ERA for the Dodgers at Triple-A before the trade and was giving up more than one hit per inning.
I don't understand the Tigers' love on this moneyline today, but it is giving value to Washington run props because of a projected lower team total.
Abrams might be the biggest ROI home-run hitter in baseball this year, and one more day to add to those breakout numbers with 12-mph winds blowing out to his pull side sure makes this 6x or better home run on a small slate look good.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Detroit SportsNet, Nationals.TV
- HR picks: 39-145, -16.3 units
Best home run combo for September 21
 Drew Gilbert |
Trade Now 342.3x |
 Coby Mayo |
|
 CJ Abrams |
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