It's an extremely short slate with just three games on tonight's schedule, but we've got every game covered in our MLB expert picks for Monday, Sept. 21.
The Minnesota Twins headline the day as they wrap up their series at Oracle Park tonight against the San Francisco Giants, and we like them to come away with a win in these MLB picks.
MLB expert picks for today
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Josh Inglis: WSH ML |
42% |
 Jon Metler: MIN ML |
52% |
 Dustin Saracini: TOR ML |
50% |
Probabilities courtesy of Polymarket. For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Trade on MLB at Polymarket!
Sign up now using our exclusive Polymarket promo code 'COVERS' (on your mobile app only) and get a $20 trading bonus after you deposit $10 to trade on any other event contracts — including MLB expert picks!
*Eligible locations only
Josh Inglis' expert pick: Nationals moneyline
Price: 42¢ at Polymarket
There is a lot of variance in this game, and I never like paying juice when the range of outcomes is massive. The fair probability for the Washington Nationals is 51%.
Both teams are sending starters to the mound who are coming off lengthy injuries. Washington's DJ Herz is coming back from Tommy John but is up to 65 pitches in his last start and has allowed one or fewer runs in all but one of his 11 games before the promotion.
I don't see that as a disadvantage vs. Detroit Tigers starter River Ryan, who is up to just 2 2/3 IP and pitched to a 4.46 ERA at Triple-A. This is a lot closer to a coin toss, especially with the Tigers scoring just one run in four of their last five games.
Check out Quinn Allen's full Nationals vs. Tigers predictions.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Nationals.TV, DSN
Jon Metler's expert pick: Twins moneyline
Price: 52¢ at Polymarket
Give me the Minnesota Twins at 52% on the moneyline, as I make them closer to a 57% favorite against the San Francisco Giants.
Zebby Matthews gets the ball for Minnesota after a strong outing against the Yankees, where he tossed six scoreless innings and struck out eight. Matthews is a fly-ball pitcher who isn't afraid to attack the strike zone and challenge hitters, which has contributed to a 16.1% HR/FB rate this season.
However, this matchup at Oracle Park plays directly into his hands. The pitcher-friendly dimensions, heavy coastal air, and nighttime conditions should help suppress the home-run risk that comes with his fly-ball profile, making the Twins more appealing at this price.
Check out Quinn Allen's full Twins vs. Giants predictions.
- Time: 9:45 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Twins.TV, NBC Sports Bay Area
Dustin Saracini's expert pick: Blue Jays moneyline
Price: 50¢ at Polymarket
Happy Trey Yesavage Day to those who celebrate.
Yes, it's his first start since undergoing meniscus surgery in August. Although he likely won't pitch deep into the game because of that, he still has some quality numbers against the Baltimore Orioles, who are hitting just .154 against him. Pete Alonso and Gunnar Henderson are a combined 1-for-10 vs. the righty.
On the other side, Shane Baz has struggled against the Toronto Blue Jays, who finally put together a strong offensive performance yesterday in Texas.
Toronto owns a .290 xBA and .446 xSLG across 73 at-bats against Baz, which should put it in a good position to win tonight. I'll ride with the Jays at a fair-priced 50% and will play it to 53%.
Check out Dustin's full Blue Jays vs. Orioles predictions.
- Time: 6:35 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Sportsnet, MASN
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
