Happy Monday! A lot to get into with too many games to break down, so I’ll keep this intro as brief as humanly possible. The Orioles host the Blue Jays, the Tigers host the Nationals, and the Giants host the Twins. Yup, massive slate.
Here are all of my thoughts and insights for Monday’s MLB Moneyline Predictions, which are part of our MLB picks for this evening’s slate.
MLB moneyline picks for Sept. 21
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Blue Jays
Orioles
Nationals
Tigers
Twins
GiantsPrices courtesy of Polymarket as of Sept. 21.
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for Sept. 21
Blue Jays vs Orioles: Orioles
Orioles win probability: 50%
Tonight's matchup features the return of Toronto Blue Jays right-hander Trey Yesavage, who has been out since early August. Prior to the injury, he posted a 4.97 ERA over his last five starts, along with a sub-16% walk rate and a 1.38 WHIP.
On the other end, the Baltimore Orioles send out Shane Baz, who has been pretty serviceable at home, sporting a 3.81 ERA while limiting hitters to a barrel rate under 7%. The Orioles' bats have also been solid over their last few games, especially Pete Alonso. Over his last five games, he owns a .600 SLG, .450 ISO, and a near-30% barrel rate.
With the Blue Jays' hitters sporting an 81 wRC+, .285 wOBA, and .108 ISO over their last six games, I want the Orioles in this spot.
I'm leaning toward the Over here, too.
Nationals vs Tigers: Nationals
Nationals win probability: 44%
Another matchup that should feature a lot of runs is this one between the Washington Nationals and Detroit Tigers.
Detroit sends out River Ryan, though Keider Montero is expected to still pitch the bulk of the game in a piggybacking role. He's been struggling a ton over his last three starts, posting a 7.50 ERA and 1.75 WHIP. The right-hander draws a Nationals lineup looking to end the season strong. Over its last six games, Washington owns a 105 wRC+, sub-20% strikeout rate, and .732 OPS.
Washington sends out DJ Herz to make his first start in two years. The 25-year-old posted a 4.16 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 2024. It's tough to back a guy who hasn't started since Sept. 25, 2024. But Montero hasn't been great, and the Nationals are getting the second-highest-rated offense today on Batters-Box.
Twins vs Giants: Twins
Twins win probability: 52%
Minnesota Twins or nothing here, as San Francisco Giants starter Blade Tidwell continues to struggle. The right-hander owns a 4.60 ERA and 6.02 xERA over his last three starts. The Twins feature a few hitters in their lineup who should be able to spark some rallies, namely Josh Bell and Kody Clemens, who have been playing some great ball over their last few games.
Additionally, Twins starter Zebby Matthews has been very solid over his last five starts, putting up a 3.45 ERA, 3.35 xERA, and 0.94 WHIP.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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