It's the last Monday to find those pitcher edges and angles to profit from, but there's still time to hit the MLB player prop markets that are harder to price as the season winds down.
DJ Herz will likely get a longer leash than expected after eight minor-league starts, and his strikeout and out props look great on a small slate. Zebby Matthews can rack up significant numbers in the K department, so he's always an Over look at his modest total.
These are my favorite strikeout and pitcher props for Monday, Sept 21.
Best MLB strikeout props and starting pitcher picks today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 DJ Herz |
Over 3.5 strikeouts | -110 |
 Zebby Matthews |
Over 4.5 strikeouts | -116 |
| DJ Herz |
Over 11.5 outs | +100 |
Strikeout prop: DJ Herz Over 3.5 strikeouts (-110)
DJ Herz is coming off Tommy John surgery, but he's expected to be around 75 pitches and threw 65 in his last minor-league start. He's made eight starts during his path back to the Majors while allowing one or fewer runs in all but one of those contests.
He's been better than a strikeout-per-inning pitcher over his career and registered 106 Ks in 88-plus innings back in 2024 for the Washington Nationals before his injury.
The Tigers are a great strikeout matchup, and I don't think the new arm is priced right here. Four Ks in four innings is the floor today, and it's a +EV K prop on a three-game slate. I'd buy this to -130.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Detroit SportsNet, Nationals.TV
Strikeout prop: Zebby Matthews Over 4.5 strikeouts (-116)
It's slim pickings on the K front today, but Zebby Matthews is still getting 95-plus pitches and is coming off an eight-strikeout start. His workload hasn't been massive this year, so I don't expect the Twins to scale him back in what will be his last start of the season.
The Minnesota Twins' starter also gets the confines of Oracle Park and a San Francisco Giants' lineup that's posted a top-10 K% all season. I wouldn't be running this much past -125 today, but if you want to take a swing, the Alt Over is in the range of outcomes for Matthews, who has collected 7-plus Ks in 30% of his last 10 starts.
- Time: 9:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Twins.TV, NBCS BA
Pitcher outs prop: DJ Herz Over 11.5 pitcher outs (+100)
With a projected pitch count of 75 pitches after 65 in his last start for Herz, the fair price for this prop should be around -140, with 12.7 innings forecasted.
Herz is coming back from Tommy John surgery, but he's also started eight games in the minors. So his arm is built up, and the Nationals will give him one go before the season ends. He can miss bats, posting a 10.76 K/9 in 2024 with a 28% K rate. He doesn't throw gas, but he offers a changeup that Herz throws 30% of the time and complements it with a slider and knuckle curve. He can get quick outs with all his offspeed offerings.
To add to my trust in this, the Tigers' offense has scored more than one run just once in the team's last five games. This is a great prop on a full slate and a plus-plus prop on a three-game slate.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Detroit SportsNet, Nationals.TV
- Prop picks: 40-34, +9.34 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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