Blue Jays vs Orioles Prediction, Odds & Home Run Pick for Today's MLB Game

Dustin Saracini -  - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Dustin Saracini • Betting Analyst 14+ years betting experience
Updated: Sep 21, 2026 , 11:15 AM ET • 4 min read

Shane Baz has struggled against the Blue Jays, who own a .290 xBA and .446 xSLG across 73 at-bats against Baz - that should put them in a good position to win tonight.

mlb

Match starts: 3 hrs
Trey Yesavage Toronto Blue Jays MLB
Photo By - Reuters Connect. Troy Taormina-Imagn Images - Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Trey Yesavage (39) delivers a pitch during the second inning.

Can the Toronto Blue Jays string consecutive wins together and keep their season alive? I'm backing them to do just that on the road in my Blue Jays vs. Orioles predictions.

The Blue Jays visit the Baltimore Orioles at Camden Yards tonight as -105 underdogs at BET99 with Trey Yesavage back on the mound. Will he get some run support after the Jays registered 11 hits just a night ago?

Here are my free MLB picks for Monday, Sept. 21.

Blue Jays vs Orioles predictions

Blue Jays vs Orioles best bet: Blue Jays moneyline (-105)

Happy Trey Yesavage Day to those who celebrate.

Yes, it's his first start since undergoing meniscus surgery in August. Even though he likely won't pitch deep into the game because of the layoff, he still has some quality numbers against the Baltimore Orioles, who are hitting just .154 against him. Pete Alonso and Gunnar Henderson are a combined 1-for-10 against the righty.

On the other side, Shane Baz has struggled against the Toronto Blue Jays, who finally put together a strong offensive performance yesterday in Texas. Toronto owns a .290 xBA and .446 xSLG across 73 at-bats against Baz, which should put them in a good position to win.

I'll ride with the Jays and play this up to -110.

Covers COVERS INTEL: To say it's been a down season for Baz would be an understatement, as he comes into tonight with the lowest K rate (20.5%) and highest xERA (4.21) of his career.

Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account Add as a preferred source on Google

Blue Jays vs Orioles same-game parlay (SGP)

Baz is struggling, and I'm on two guys who can take advantage. Cheers to Nathan Lukes — who makes my same-game parlay for the first time this season — he owns a .307 xBA vs. the Orioles' righty, while Kazuma Okamoto has a .346 xBA against him. If these two have an impact, expect the Jays to win their second straight.

Blue Jays vs Orioles SGP

  • Blue Jays moneyline
  • Nathan Lukes 2+ hits+runs+RBI
  • Kazuma Okamoto 2+ hits+runs+RBI

Covers Alberta: Sports betting is now live!

Regulated Alberta sports betting has officially launched, allowing sportsbooks to operate under provincial oversight.

You can sign up and join BET99 — one of the best Alberta betting apps — now to get in on the Blue Jays action!

Blue Jays vs Orioles home run pick: Nathan Lukes (+900)

Let's double down on Lukes. At this value, he's absolutely the best bet on tonight's board. Aside from owning a .307 xBA in this matchup, Lukes has a .551 xSLG against Baz, which is the highest on the team for everyone not named Vladimir Guerrero Jr. He's seeing the ball well, too, coming off a 2-for-3, two-RBI night.

I'll ride with him to stay hot one more time as he's hit nine of his 10 homers this year off righties.

2026 Transparency Record
  • Best bets: 12-14, -0.87 units 
  • SGPs: 5-23, -0.40 units

Blue Jays vs Orioles odds

  • Moneyline: Toronto (-105) | Baltimore (-115)
  • Run line: Toronto -1.5 (+160) | Baltimore +1.5 (-190)
  • Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-110) | Under 7.5 (-110)

Blue Jays vs Orioles trend

The Over is 8-1 in the Blue Jays last nine overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Orioles.

How to watch Blue Jays vs Orioles and game info

Location Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, Md.
Date Monday, Sept. 21, 2026
First pitch 6:35 p.m. ET
TV Sportsnet, MASN
Blue Jays starting pitcher Trey Yesavage
(5-5, 3.65 ERA)
Orioles starting pitcher Shane Baz
(6-15, 4.11 ERA)

Blue Jays vs Orioles latest injuries

Blue Jays vs Orioles weather

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.

Pages related to this topic

Dustin Saracini
Betting Analyst

Dustin Saracini is a betting analyst at Covers with over 14 years of experience in the sports betting industry. Throughout his career, Dustin has hosted multiple betting shows- breaking down NBA, NFL, PGA, and MLB markets alongside top handicappers - and has appeared as a Super Bowl consultant for CNN. A disciplined daily bettor who extensively line-shops across FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, and Caesars, his sharpest edges lie in MLB and the NFL (followed closely by the NHL and NBA). A self-proclaimed NRFI guru targeting his second straight +10u MLB season, Dustin holds a Broadcast Journalism degree from Western University (2014). For daily picks, market strategies, and insights, follow him on X (Twitter) @DustinSaracini.

Popular Content

Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo