Everybody loves a long ball — but we love them even more when there's a chance to make some sweet, sweet cash off them, which is exactly what we're looking to do with FanDuel Sportsbook's Dinger Tuesday promotion!
How it works: Place one $25 bet on a player to hit a home run every Tuesday... and get $5 in bonus bets for every total home run hit in that game — regardless of who hits 'em.
Today's MLB schedule isn't the most conducive for cashing in on the MLB odds for dingers, as Ballpark Pal's MLB Park Factors has just one stadium (marginally) upgraded for home runs, so I'm going more pitcher focused with the best matchups to target on this final Tuesday of May.
So who I'm fading — along with the best MLB player props and values based on FanDuel's MLB home run odds — with my favorite FanDuel Dinger Tuesday plays for May 30, 2023.
FanDuel Dinger Tuesday best values
Los Angeles Angels at Chicago White Sox (Guaranteed Rate Field, 8:10 p.m. ET)
Pitchers
| Pitcher | HR/9 | HR/FB% | FB% | Barrel % | HardHit % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Anderson | 1.29 | 9.2 | 47.2 | 6.7 | 31.2 |
| Lucas Giolito | 1.28 | 11.1 | 45 | 9.4 | 37.6 |
Hitters to target
After giving up five homers in his first three starts, lefty Tyler Anderson has allowed just two dingers in his last six outings.
However, five of his seven total home runs allowed this year have come off his fastball AND righties have hit him much harder: plus the Chicago White Sox have a couple of powerful righty bats that excel against fastballs — Luis Robert Jr. (+420), who is hitting .375 off lefties over the last two weeks, and the recently returned Eloy Jimenez (+330) — while switch-hitter Yasmani Grandal is hitting .313 during that span off southpaws as well, has also crushed fastballs, and is priced at +560.
On the other side, there's a plethora of options for the Los Angeles Angels, who are 10th in the Majors for dingers in May and face Giolito, who has given up a home run in five straight games and six of his last seven. The obvious names are Shohei Ohtani (+280) and Mike Trout (+300), but of those two I'd lean Trout due to his devastation of changeups this year (which is Giolito's weakest primary pitch).
You could also look at Brandon Drury (.324 BA, .297 ISO, 2 HR vs. RHP last two weeks) at +450, as well as the red-hot Mickey Moniak (+500), who has three homers and a whopping 68.2% fly-ball rate against righties during this span... and also crushes offspeed pitches.
Best betting value: Luis Robert Jr. (+420)
New York Yankees at Seattle Mariners (T-Mobile Park, 9:40 p.m. ET)
Pitchers
| Pitcher | HR/9 | HR/FB% | FB% | Barrel % | HardHit % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nestor Cortes | 1.66 | 11.4 | 56.8 | 7.1 | 40.6 |
| Logan Gilbert | 0.90 | 10.3 | 38.4 | 8.4 | 40.0 |
Hitters to target
OK, I understand that Logan Gilbert is really good, but the Seattle Mariners RHP has given up a home run in two straight starts and the New York Yankees are back to being the Bronx Bombers — leading all teams in dingers this month.
Gilbert's fastball is his only pitch that has shown some vulnerability, especially against righties, so the obvious name is Aaron Judge (+240), who has been a one-man wrecking crew this month.
Instead, some other viable pinstriped righties include the normally light-hitting Isiah Kiner-Falefa (+900), who is batting .321 with three homers vs. RHP over the last two weeks, although Gleyber Torres is more appealing at +450 as he is hitting .305 and also have three dingers against righties over this span... but he's hitting .321 against fastballs with eight of his nine HR coming off that pitch in 2023.
If you want to go the lefty route, the red-hot Willie Calhoun (+600) has seven hits in his last 16 ABs and a 48.3% FB rate against righties in the latter half of May.
Despite the Yanks' home-run prowess, the real juicy part of this matchup is fading New York southpaw Nestor Cortes: he's given up eight homers in his last six starts, as his fly-ball rate is almost 10 percentage points higher than last year and his fastball/cutter have been the issue — with righties doing almost all the damage.
The prominent names are Julio Rodriguez (+400), Teoscar Hernandez (+350), and Eugenio Suarez (+440), but J-Rod has just a 16.7% FB rate off lefties over the last two weeks, Suarez is in a 1-for-12 slump against LHP, and Teo has also been mediocre.
Instead, you could target Cal Raleigh, who is currently OTB but is hitting .417 off lefties in the second half of May, Jose Caballero (hitting .375 with a 50% FB rate vs. LHP last two weeks and priced at +750), or Ty France (+600) — who is hitting .385 with a 58.3% fly-ball rate against southpaws over the last 14 days.
Best betting value: Ty France (+600)
Last week's recap:
- STL at CIN: Three HR
- HOU at MIL: One HR (incl. best value)
- Game with most HR: SD/WSH (Six HR)
Not intended for use in MA.
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