Cal Raleigh came alive last night to mash not one, not two, but THREE home runs. With the Philadelphia Phillies trotting out home run machine Aaron Nola, more fireworks are expected in Seattle tonight.
Josh Inglis is targeting the Over in that game as one of our three MLB expert picks for Tuesday, Aug. 25.
MLB expert picks for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 Josh Inglis: PHI/SEA o7.5 |
+100 |
 Jon Metler: LAD ML |
-150 |
 Dustin Saracini: TOR ML |
-122 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Phillies vs. Mariners Over 7.5
Price: 50¢ (+100) at Polymarket
This Over is trading at 50 cents on Polymarket but is much shorter at traditional books. Even then, it still isn't enough at this total. The fair price is 60 cents, and I wouldn't be surprised if this number moves to a flat 8 before first pitch.
This might be the best pitching matchup in the series to target the Over. Aaron Nola remains one of the hardest-hit pitchers in baseball and is coming off a 100-pitch outing, his highest workload in 21 starts. He's also allowed more home runs than any pitcher in baseball this season.
George Kirby hasn't been much better lately, allowing 19 runs over his last five starts while failing to record 16 outs in four of them.
Cal Raleigh has an offensive pulse after three dingers last night, and only the Red Sox have scored more runs in August than the Philadelphia Phillies.
THE BAT is projecting 9.35 runs tonight in Seattle.
Todd Cordell has a full breakdown waiting with his Phillies vs. Mariners predictions.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- How to watch: NBC Sports Philadelphia, Mariners.TV
Jon Metler's expert pick: Dodgers moneyline
Price: 60¢ (-150) at Polymarket
This series is worth keeping an eye on, with two of the National League's top teams potentially giving us a preview of a postseason matchup.
Bryce Elder gets the ball for the Atlanta Braves, and the matchup sets up well for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Elder relies heavily on his sinker at the bottom of the zone to generate ground balls and get outs, but that's a difficult pitch to live on against this lineup.
Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and Max Muncy are three of the most dangerous left-handed bats in baseball, and they all have swing paths designed to elevate pitches down in the zone. If Elder misses his spot and the sinker leaks over the inner half, the Dodgers can turn that mistake into damage.
The Dodgers are trading at 60 cents on Polymarket, but I price them closer to 63 cents, giving us a meaningful edge at the current number.
Check out Jason Wilson's Dodgers vs. Braves predictions for an opposing take.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- How to watch: TBS
Dustin Saracini's expert pick: Blue Jays moneyline
Price: 55¢ (-122) at Polymarket
If the Toronto Blue Jays want to earn the second Wild Card — they're currently 2.0 games back — they need to beat teams like the Kansas City Royals.
While the Royals have won eight straight, the Jays are catching them with the struggling Seth Lugo on the bump tonight. The former ace has allowed five earned runs in three of his last four starts and is in the middle of the worst season of his career, sporting a career-high 5.18 xERA and .280 xBA.
He's simply not missing bats, and the Jays are about to take advantage at home.
I'd play this up to 58 cents at Polymarket, and ride with a bounce-back performance from Max Scherzer.
- Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Royals.TV, Sportsnet
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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