The New York Yankees are -145 home favorites against the Houston Astros in their series opener.
With their offense struggling to put together hits, my Astros vs. Yankees predictions and MLB picks are backing the road team to keep this one close on Tuesday, Aug. 25.
Who will win Astros vs Yankees today: Astros +1.5 (-155)
Limiting power continues to be the biggest source of struggle for Will Warren.
He ranks in the 12th percentile in hard-hit rate (43.7%) and his numbers are getting worse. Warren sits dead-last among today’s projected starters with a 53.7% hard-hit rate over the past month.
The Houston Astros are ninth in SLG and second in HR/FB against righties this season. They hit for power.
The New York Yankees rank 24th in wOBA vs. righties in August, and are unlikely to score enough to separate.
Back Houston +1.5 to -165.
COVERS INTEL: Warren has allowed 40 hard-hit balls over the last month, the highest total among today's starters.
Astros vs Yankees Over/Under pick: Under 9.5 (-131)
These are not offenses I want to buy right now.
The Yankees are hitting just .210 against right-handed pitching this month, making it difficult to string together runs.
Ethan Pecko was effective limiting the long ball in the minors (0.80 HR/9), and he should be fine against the all-or-nothing Yankees if he continues to do so.
The Astros sit 27th in xwOBA against righties in August, and don’t have many bats going beyond Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez.
I’d play Under 9.5 to -152.
Astros vs Yankees home run prediction: Yordan Alvarez (+220)
Warren has allowed a .297 ISO and 2.28 HR/9 over his last 10 starts. He is really struggling to keep the ball in the park, and playing at Yankee Stadium won’t help the cause.
Alvarez is the most likely candidate to take advantage. He owns a .313 ISO and 13.8% barrel rate against Warren’s two most-used pitches vs. lefties, the fastball and change-up.
He also strikes out infrequently, and won’t hand Warren a get-out-of-jail-free card by chasing pitches out of the zone.
Play to +210.
- ML/RL bets: 89-81, -10.30 units
- Over/Under bets: 86-78-6, -3.32 units
Astros vs Yankees weather
The forecast calls for temperatures in the mid 70s with slight winds blowing out. Neutral impact on the offenses.
Astros vs Yankees odds
- Moneyline: Astros +125 | Yankees -145
- Run line: Astros +1.5 (-155) | Yankees -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under: Over 9 (+105) | Under 9 (-125)
Astros vs Yankees trend
New York has hit the Under in 30 of its last 45 games (+13.80 units, 28% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Yankees.
How to watch Astros vs Yankees and game info
| Location | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date | Tuesday, Aug. 25, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | SCHN, YES |
| Astros starting pitcher | Ethan Pecko (0-0, 4.91 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Will Warren (8-6, 4.43 ERA) |
Astros vs Yankees latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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