Game 3 of the ALCS between the Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians is a high-pressure matinee, with first pitch scheduled for 1 p.m. ET at Progressive Field on Thursday, Oct. 15.
Our Rays vs. Guardians expert picks are somewhat at odds. One analyst likes Cleveland's offense to do damage against Tampa's bullpen while another can't pass up an opportunity on the Rays as underdogs.
More MLB picks follow ahead of this pivotal postseason clash.
Rays vs Guardians expert picks for Game 3
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Josh Inglis: CLE TT o3.5 |
xx% |
 Jon Metler: TB ML |
46% |
 Joe Osborne: Jose Ramirez 2+ TB |
40% |
 Dustin Saracini: Junior Caminero 2+ TB |
37% |
Probabilities courtesy of Polymarket. For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Guardians team total Over 3.5
Price: 47¢ at Polymarket
The Cleveland Guardians get the Tampa Bay Rays away from the Trop and can pick on this team's primary weakness: its bullpen.
Griffin Jax gets the ball for the Rays and has thrown just two relief innings since Sept. 27. His leash will be short, opening up 15-plus outs for this Tampa bullpen to cover.
It's a unit that finished in the bottom half of the league in WAR and posted the eighth-worst FIP among all bullpens this year. The Guardians have already tagged Tampa's relievers for six runs on eight hits across six innings.
Cleveland can score from start to finish. Fair probability is 53%.
One such bat who may do damage is Jose Ramirez, whom Quinn Allen highlights as a big-fly threat in his Game 3 home run predictions.
Jon Metler's expert pick: Rays moneyline
Price: 46¢ at Polymarket
The Rays as underdogs? Sign me up.
I'll gladly take Tampa at 46%, as I project it as a 51% favorite in Game 3 of the ALCS against the Guardians.
Runs could be hard to come by with a 1 p.m. start, temperatures reaching just 56 degrees, and the wind blowing in. I like how these conditions favor Tampa Bay's patient left-handed bats against right-hander Gavin Williams.
In what I expect to be a low-scoring, tightly contested game, I'll take the Rays' bullpen coming off a day of rest.
Dustin Saracini is also bullish on the underdog angle in his Rays vs. Guardians predictions.
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 total bases
Price: 40¢ at Polymarket
I expect an ultra-locked-in Jose Ramirez after his costly error in Cleveland’s Game 2 loss.
The best way to make amends? Let his bat do the talking.
He’s riding a five-game playoff hitting streak, with three multi-hit performances during that stretch. Returning home should help, too. Ramírez hit .260 with a .748 OPS in Cleveland this season, compared to .211 and .632 on the road.
Dustin Saracini's expert pick: Junior Caminero Over 1.5 total bases
Price: 37¢ at Polymarket
Junior Caminero owns an .812 OPS in the postseason, and while he's had only 10 at-bats against Williams in his career, he's already taken him deep.
He hit 34 of his 42 homers against righties this season and owns a .842 OPS in day games. With Game 3 moved up a few hours due to inclement weather, that bodes well for us.
The slugging third baseman ripped a double in Game 2. Let's see him do it one more time in a massive road tilt. Play this to 45%.
Todd Cordell's Rays vs. Guardians Game 3 player props also like Caminero to do some damage.
How to watch Rays vs Guardians Game 3
| Location | Progressive Field, Cleveland, Ohio |
| Date | Thursday, Oct. 15, 2026 |
| First pitch | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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