The Philadelphia Phillies had their nine-game winning streak snapped in their series opener against Seattle.
With an enticing matchup against the struggling George Kirby, my Phillies vs. Mariners predictions and MLB picks for Tuesday, Aug. 25 see value in backing Philadelphia to get right back on track.
Who will win Phillies vs Mariners today: Phillies moneyline (-105)
Seattle Mariners starter George Kirby has struggled to limit quality contact, ranking in the 20th percentile in hard-hit rate. That has led to plenty of trouble when facing offenses squaring the ball up.
Kirby owns a 5.52 ERA over 11 starts against Top-10 teams in hard-hit rate vs. right-handed pitching, and has conceded at least three earned runs in six straight.
The Philadelphia Phillies not only sit sixth in hard-hit rate this year, but are red-hot with the second-highest scoring offense in August.
Look for the bats to lead the way. Play to -115.
COVERS INTEL: Kirby ranks last among today's qualified starters with a 5.57 SIERA over the past 30 days.
Phillies vs Mariners Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (-115)
Kirby has had an especially difficult time getting left-handed bats out, allowing a .358 average and .455 wOBA over his past five starts.
The Phillies are perfectly built to take advantage. They have six lefties in their projected lineup, including Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, and Luis Arraez.
Aaron Nola sits in the 18th percentile in barrel rate and has allowed 2.04 HR/9. His inability to limit power makes it hard to get out of games unscathed even when making few mistakes.
I see value in playing Over 7.5 to -125.
Phillies vs Mariners home run prediction: Bryce Harper (+380)
Kirby attacks lefties most prominently with a fastball-sweeper combination, and that’s a recipe for disaster against Bryce Harper.
He has absolutely crushed those two pitches this season, posting ISOs of .536 and .875 against right-handed pitching while hitting 15 homers.
Harper enters this contest in great form as well. Isolating Kirby’s pitch mix, Harper owns a 72.7% hard-hit rate and 98.8 mph average exit velocity over his past 25 at-bats.
He is a very patient hitter and won’t be forced into making a mistake. Play this down to +350.
- ML/RL bets: 89-81, -10.30 units
- Over/Under bets: 86-78-6, -3.29 units
Phillies vs Mariners weather
Temperatures in the high 70s are forecasted with winds blowing out. Boost to the bats.
Phillies vs Mariners odds
- Moneyline: Phillies +100 | Mariners -120
- Run line: Phillies -1.5 (+160) | Mariners +1.5 (-190)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-110) | Under 7.5 (-110)
Phillies vs Mariners trend
Philadelphia has hit the Over in 19 of the last 30 games (+10.25 units, 31% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Mariners.
How to watch Phillies vs Mariners and game info
| Location | T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA |
| Date | Tuesday, Aug. 25, 2026 |
| First pitch | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBCSP, Mariners.TV |
| Phillies starting pitcher | Aaron Nola (5-9, 5.12 ERA) |
| Mariners starting pitcher | George Kirby (8-10, 4.18 ERA) |
Phillies vs Mariners latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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