The Los Angeles Dodgers (58%) are healthy favorites to take Game 4 on home field and avoid a sweep against the Milwaukee Brewers.
They're in great hands, with Tyler Glasnow set to take the mound, so my Brewers vs. Dodgers prop picks focus on him.
Let's take a closer look at my MLB picks for Thursday, Oct. 15, and then check out our full Brewers vs. Dodgers predictions.
Best Brewers vs Dodgers props
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI |
50% |
| Tyler Glasnow Under 3.5 hits allowed |
58% |
| Mookie Betts Under 1.5 hits + runs + RBI |
49% |
Prop pick #1: Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI
Freddie Freeman is a play for 2+ HRR to 53%.
Freeman has made a lot of great contact in the playoffs, leading both teams with a .397 xBA while topping the charts in hard-hit percentage and barrel rate.
That has translated into modest results, mostly due to an unsustainably low .176 average on balls put in play. Freeman owns a career .341 BABIP, nearly double where it sits in these playoffs.
This is as good a spot as he’ll get to right the ship — perhaps even his last. The Milwaukee Brewers are expected to start Shane Drohan and use Dustin May in relief at some point.
Competent pitchers, sure, but not Jacob Misiorowski, Logan Henderson, or the Brewers' best. Expect Freeman to take advantage.
Prop pick #2: Tyler Glasnow Under 3.5 hits allowed
Play to 60%.
Tyler Glasnow finished in the 97th percentile in suppressing hits during the regular season, allowing a .175 batting average.
He picked up where he left off in the playoffs, allowing just one hit over 20 batters faced against the Braves.
Glasnow has a fantastic track record of limiting hits in the playoffs. He has given up an average of 2.3 hits over seven appearances in the past year and change, going Under 3.5 hits in all but one game.
This is do-or-die for the Los Angeles Dodgers, so the leash will be somewhat short. If Glasnow gets into trouble, Dave Roberts will have no choice but to pull him. That gives us an extra path to victory.
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Prop pick #3: Mookie Betts Under 1.5 hits + runs + RBI
I don’t love this spot for Mookie Betts and would play the Under to 52%.
His .238 batting average in the playoffs is nothing to write home about, and the underlyings suggest those results may be overselling his caliber of play.
Betts is sporting a .185 xBA and has put the ball in the dirt with a ground ball more than 55% of the time, which is not a recipe for success.
His numbers are poor against lefties and righties — and Milwaukee's bullpen is elite — so it’s not as if greener pastures will appear after a couple of at-bats vs. Drohan.
- Prop picks: 9-9, -1.75 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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