Ah, MLB Opening Day. Where anything can happen. Where a home run is an out and the worst team in baseball can upset the best. Oh wait, that’s just the Colorado Rockies beating the Los Angeles Dodgers yesterday.
But before we dive into the overreaction waters for this MLB betting matchup, the Dodgers would like to remind you they're starting the defending NL Cy Young winner for Game 2, as Trevor Bauer makes his Dodgers debut .
Check out our MLB free picks and predictions for Dodgers vs. Rockies on Friday, April 2, with first pitch scheduled for 8:40 p.m. ET.
Dodgers vs Rockies odds
MLB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonFanDuel pegged Los Angeles a beefy -280 favorite late Thursday night, then dove as low as -240 and is at -255 as of 6:30 p.m. ET, with Colorado a +210 underdog. Still, it's practically all Dodgers on the moneyline, at 88 percent of bets and 94 percent of cash. And after Thursday's opening-night loss, L.A. is also getting pounded on the runline at -1.5, attracting 87 percent of bets/93 percent of money. The total opened at 11.5 flat (-110) and is up to 12 (Under -118), although the Under is getting 78 percent of tickets/74 percent of dollars.
Check out the full line movement for this gameDodgers vs Rockies betting preview
Starting pitchers
Trevor Bauer (2020: 5-4, 1.73 ERA): Bauer is coming off a fantastic season with the Reds, capturing his first Cy Young Award. Bauer led the NL in ERA (1.73) and WHIP (0.79) and had the highest strikeout rate of his career, punching out 12.3 batters per nine innings. He is primed for a big season with the Dodgers.
Antonio Senzatela (2020: 5-3, 3.44 ERA): Senzatela quietly had his best season as a Rocky and was one of the team’s bright spots in 2020. The right-hander pitched to a 3.44 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP. Senzatela relies mostly on a hard four-seam fastball that averages about 95 mph and a slider that he uses as his put-away pitch.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Dodgers: Joe Kelly RP (Out), Brusdar Graterol RP (Out), Tommy Kahnle RP (Out).
Rockies: No key injuries to report.
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 5-2-1 in the last eight meetings between the Dodgers and Rockies in Colorado. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Rockies.
Runline pick
The quick reaction to the Rockies' 8-5 victory over the Dodgers on Opening Day, is that L.A. is in full World Series hangover mode. I mean, have you ever seen a home run be called an out before? But let’s just pause before we go down that road.
First, Clayton Kershaw did not look sharp yesterday. We never want to see a legend on the downward trend of his career, but that just may be the case. Kershaw allowed six runs (five earned) on 10 hits in 5.2 innings.
I would be slightly more shocked if we saw something like that from Bauer. We already went over his Cy Young numbers, but the guy is just reaching his prime now, and only had two starts all of last year where he gave up more than four hits and three earned runs.
Senzatela is solid, but as we saw yesterday, and all of last season, the Rockies’ bullpen will be an issue. The Dodgers likely won’t cross the base paths on another home run, and when it comes to games like this, I’ve always preferred betting on good teams to play well, as opposed to bad teams playing better than they should. The Dodgers bounce back, take them on the runline.
PREDICTION: Dodgers -1.5 (-150)
Over/Under pick
As for the total, we get a bit of an elevated number thanks to, well, the elevation. Coors Field and its thin Rocky Mountain air have been home to high totals as long as they have been playing ball games there.
But over the last few seasons, the Rockies have had some better starting pitching, giving the Under a little more value in Colorado home games, and with the Rockies handing the ball to Senzatela, today is one of those days.
As noted, Senzatela is coming off a solid season, and he pitched fairly well against the Dodgers to boot. The right-hander got roughed up in his first start against L.A. last season but followed that up by limiting them to three runs on 10 hits in 11.2 innings of work over two starts.
Additionally, it's unlikely the Rockies put up eight runs this time out against Bauer. The Under 12 is the play here.
PREDICTION: Under 12 (-110)
Dodgers vs Rockies betting card
- Dodgers -1.5 (-150)
- Under 12 (-110)
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