Diamondbacks vs Dodgers Prediction, Picks, and Odds for Tonight’s MLB Game

There's a lot to love about the seasons Brandon Pfaadt and Gavin Stone have had thus far and with them both taking the mound tonight, our MLB picks expect offense to be hard to come by.

JD Yonke - Contributor at Covers.com
JD Yonke • Contributor
May 21, 2024 • 10:50 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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Gavin Stone Los Angeles Dodgers MLB
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The Los Angeles Dodgers grabbed a 6-4 victory over the Arizona Diamondbacks in Game 1 on Monday. Attention shifts to Tuesday’s Game 2 featuring two young, promising starting pitchers in Brandon Pfaadt and Gavin Stone. 

According to MLB odds, the Dodgers are -175 on the moneyline while the total resides at 8.5. I break it all down in my Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers predictions and MLB picks below.

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers prediction

My best bet
Under 8.5 (+100 at BetMGM)

My analysis
Arizona Diamondbacks starter Brandon Pfaadt made a name for himself in the postseason when he put forth a 3.27 ERA and 1.09 WHIP while striking out 26 batters and walking five across 22 IP. Impressive numbers for anyone, let alone a 24-year-old. All eyes were on the young hurler entering 2024 to see how he’d follow up such a strong showing under the brightest lights.

He has a 4.17 ERA through nine starts, although his 3.07 xERA and 3.37 FIP are both strong underlying numbers. He does a great job limiting free passes (4.5% walk rate) and has dropped his barrel rate from 11.7% a year ago to 5% in 2024. He’s not a perfect pitcher, but there’s a lot to like about what he brings to the table. 

The Bellarmine University project has settled in lately, allowing no more than three earned runs in each of his last six starts. He has his work cut out for him against a tough Los Angeles Dodgers lineup, but it’s worth pointing out Big Blue’s relative struggles at the dish lately. 

On the year, the Dodgers rank second in wRC+ (122) and third in wOBA (.339) against right-handed pitching, but across the last 15 days, those ranks drop to 23rd in wRC+ (93) and 24th in wOBA (.297). This is a dangerous lineup, but it’s not operating at anywhere near peak effectiveness.

On the flip side, Dodgers starter Gavin Stone has been a revelation lately. After allowing just a single earned run in each of his last four starts, the 25-year-old sits with a pretty 3.27 ERA, 3.97 xERA, and 3.81 FIP. He’s allowed just eight earned runs across his last 36 IP. 

Arizona has gone Under the total in four of Pfaadt’s last five starts and I’m betting on another one to come through given the strong recent performance of both respective starting pitchers.

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)

Under 8.5

Gavin Stone Over 4.5 strikeouts

Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 total bases

This may seem like a contrarian SGP at first glance, but it makes more sense following a close inspection and offers juicy plus money odds. 

Stone hasn’t generated many strikeouts this season, averaging just 5.9 Ks per nine innings. That being said, I’m interested in buying low for a few reasons. He has a strong record for Ks in the Minors (more than 10 Ks per nine innings at every level from 2021 through 2023), generates plenty of swings and misses (12.2% swinging strike rate, 73rd percentile chase rate), and the projection systems are buying his strikeout potential (8.8 Ks per nine innings, per ATC DC). 

While I’m a fan of the Under, I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention that Pfaadt has been knocked around in the past by some of the Dodgers’ hitters. Chief among the suspects has been Freddie Freeman, who is 4-for-6 with a home run and a 2.167 OPS off the youngster. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers odds

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers live odds

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers opening odds

  • Run line: Arizona +1.5 (-140) | Los Angeles -1.5 (+120)
  • Moneyline: Arizona +145 | Los Angeles -170
  • Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers spread and Over/Under analysis

  • L.A. has won four straight games when Stone starts. Arizona is just 2-6 across Pfaadt’s last eight starts. 

  • The Dodgers are 19-9 at home while the Diamondbacks are 10-13 on the road. 

  • L.A. has covered the first-five run line in 20 of its last 27 home games. 

  • The Diamondbacks have cashed their team total Over in just 15 of their last 39 games.

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Diamondbacks vs Dodgers trend

The Dodgers have cashed the Over in 17 of their last 26 games at Dodger Stadium. Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers game info

Location: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
Date: Tuesday, 5-21-2024
First pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
TV: ARID, SportsNet Los Angeles
Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Brandon Pfaadt
(1-3, 4.17 ERA)
Dodgers starting pitcher: Gavin Stone
(4-1, 3.27 ERA)

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers latest injuries

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers weather

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