The MLB betting board features 11 games Monday, including the series opener between the Atlanta Braves and Chicago Cubs at 7:10 p.m. ET.
Both teams were shutout Sunday and enter the contest on two-game losing skids. Atlanta will send Charlie Morton to the mound in an effort to get back on track, while Chicago counters with struggling right-hander Zach Davies.
Here are our best free picks and predictions for Cubs vs. Braves on April 26 at Truist Park.
Cubs vs Braves odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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MLB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonThe Braves opened -165 Sunday afternoon at PointsBet USA and sprinted to -200 by lunch hour today. As of 4 p.m. ET, the moneyline remains -200, and it's actually two-way action, with Atlanta landing 55 percent of bets and 53 percent of money. The total moved from 8.5 to 8 and back to 8.5, currently priced at Under -115, with 65 percent of bets on the Over and 58 percent of money on the Under.
Check out the full line movement for this gameCubs vs Braves betting preview
Starting pitchers
Zach Davies (1-2, 8.80 ERA): Davies is having a rough go in his first season with the Cubs, as the soft-tossing righty has a 2.09 WHIP to go along with an inflated 8.80 ERA. He limited the Mets to two runs in his last start but only went four innings, a number he’s eclipsed once in four starts. He has issued more walks than strikeouts and is taxing the Cubs’ bullpen every time he gets the ball.
Charlie Morton (1-1, 3.91 ERA): No surprise, but Morton has adjusted well to life in the National League, going six innings in each of his last three starts and striking out nearly four times as many batters as he walks. He had six Ks last game, nine before that, and seven in his second start of the season. It should be more of the same against a Cubs team that gets punched out a lot.
Weather
The temperature is expected to be 73 degrees Fahrenheit and sunny for first pitch, with southeast winds of 4 mph and wind gusts of 6 mph. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Cubs: Joc Pederson OF (Out), Rowan Wick RP (Out), Shelby Miller RP (Out).
Braves: Chris Martin RP (Out), Ender Inciarte OF (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 4-0 in Morton's last four starts as a home favorite. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Braves.
Runline pick
The Braves were embarrassed Sunday, losing both ends of a doubleheader against Arizona and getting shutout in each loss. They allowed a down and out Madison Bumgarner to fire seven hitless innings to turn in his best start with the Diamondbacks after Zac Gallen held them to one hit earlier in the day. It was a brutal day for the Braves.
The good news for Atlanta is that it will have Morton on the hill for the series opener against the Cubs. Though the Braves have only won one of his four starts, that has had little to do with Morton's pitching, as the veteran right-hander has allowed three runs or fewer three times and his rate stats are all in line with where he's been the last few seasons as a highly valuable arm for the Tampa Bay Rays and Houston Astros.
Morton has been piling up the strikeouts, averaging 10.57 K/9, and should continue sitting down batters Monday against a Cubs team that is striking out more often than any NL club outside of the Milwaukee Brewers. He doesn't issue many free passes, either, which is another area the Cubs excel in (they have the sixth-highest walk rate in the majors).
In other words, this is a good spot for Morton to get the Braves back on track. With the Cubs sending out an untrustworthy Davies, we'll go for the better value and take Atlanta on the runline, as the moneyline has gone from a -158 opening for Atlanta to as high as -190.
PREDICTION: Braves -1.5 (+115)
Over/Under pick
These teams met just over a week ago at Wrigley Field, with Atlanta winning the series opener before the clubs exchanged 13-4 victories.
Atlanta is getting high-end production out of NL MVP odds favorite Ronald Acuna Jr., but little from other key pieces such as Marcell Ozuna and shortstop Dansby Swanson. Freddie Freeman, the 2020 MVP, hasn't broken out yet, either, but any team's bats can come to life with Davies on the mound.
Davies has been a punching bag, allowing 15 runs and 21 hits over 15 1-3 innings, and has routinely forced the Cubs to turn to their bullpen for bulk innings each time he gets the ball. And it's a bullpen that could use a breather, as Cubs relievers have thrown the second-most innings in the NL.
The Braves are tied with the Cubs at 28 homers (trailing only three teams), led by Acuna's seven. The dynamic outfielder is hitting a robust .371/.457/.786 for an Atlanta team that has the third-best isolated power percentage in the majors (Chicago is fourth). Though Morton does a good job at keeping the ball in the yard, Chicago — led by Kris Bryant, Wilson Contreas, and all-or-nothing free-swinger Javier Baez — can certainly bash them out and the team has scored 13-plus runs in three of its last eight games.
Atlanta has been one of the best Over bets this season with a 12-8-1 O/U record, including a sizzling 8-1-1 mark at home. With Davies on the mound and both teams' ability to go deep, another Braves Over is the play for tonight.
PREDICTION: Over 8.0 (-115)
Cubs vs Braves betting card
- Braves -1.5 (+115)
- Over 8.0 (-115)
Picks made on 4/26/2021 at 9:45 a.m. ET
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