Pete Crow-Armstrong is a 99% favorite, and Yordan Alvarez is sitting at 97% in the MLB MVP odds.
MLB odds have some dark-horse candidates listed, but none seem like legitimate options to usurp our leaders, especially on the NL side.
For more analysis, check out our MLB MVP odds and predictions below.
- Key Takeaways:
- Alvarez in control of AL
- Caminero a long-shot dark horse
- PCA has NL in the bag
- MVP winners will be announced on Thursday, Nov. 12
Odds to win 2026 AL MVP
Junior CamineroOdds last updated on 10-28. Odds from Polymarket. For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
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Odds to win 2026 NL MVP
Odds last updated on 10-28.
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MLB MVP odds favorites
Yordan Alvarez (99%)
Yordan Alvarez was cruising toward a Triple Crown but ultimately finished behind Pete Alonso in home runs and RBI, though he crushed the Polar Bear in batting average en route to a batting title.
Overall, it was an underwhelming season in the Junior Circuit. Several players had very good years, but no one was transcendent. Bobby Witt Jr.'s defense helped him pace the league in fWAR, but he likely won't even be an MVP finalist.
Despite coming up short in the Triple Crown race, Alvarez had the most eye-popping season in the American League, and he'll be rewarded.
Pete Crow-Armstrong (99%)
No one is challenging Pete Crow-Armstrong in this race. It's done. He's the seventh player to post a 40-40 season in MLB history (the third since 2023, shockingly) and was a true five-tool threat in 2026.
PCA led MLB with 10.6 fWAR and fully gained separation in this race once it was clear that Shohei Ohtani would not return to the mound in any capacity.
Even if he had, Crow-Armstrong was incredible, slashing .280/.372/.570 with an MLB-leading 45 home runs and 41 stolen bases.
MLB MVP futures predictions
| Prediction | Odds | Prediction date | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
 Bobby Witt Jr. |
2% | Sept. 1 | 0.25 |
 Pete Crow-Armstrong |
22.2% | Aug. 1 | 1 |
 Mike Trout |
4.76% | April 21 | 0.5 |
 Ben Rice |
6.25% | April 21 | 0.5 |
 Gunnar Henderson |
6.25% | March 24 | 0.5 |
 Wyatt Langford |
2.44% | February 25 | 0.25 |
 Jackson Merrill |
1.79% | February 25 | 0.25 |
My MVP predictions have gone poorly, but I also haven't chased anything to make up for early mistakes.
However, the value on Witt is simply too good to pass up even if his chances are notably slim. In an age when WAR holds significant weight and voters are looking beyond the slash line, Witt does everything so well that it makes sense to go with him over Alvarez, a wonderful slugger who rarely plays defense and doesn't do it particularly well when he does.
I did snag Crow-Armstrong when he was still plus money, and I'm glad I did. I wish I got him at a better number, but better late than never.
Popular MLB futures markets
Previous MVP winners
Here are the last 10 winners of the AL and NL MVP Award, with Shohei Ohtani leading the way as a four-time winner, with two in the AL and two in the NL. Only Frank Robinson has also won MVP awards in both leagues.
Barry Bonds holds the record for most MVP awards (seven).
The New York Yankees have won the most MVPs in MLB history with 25, while the St. Louis Cardinals are second, leading all NL teams, with 21. No player for the Arizona Diamondbacks, New York Mets, or Tampa Bay Rays has ever won MVP.
Previous AL MVP winners
| Year | American League Winner |
|---|---|
| 2025 | Aaron Judge |
| 2024 | Aaron Judge |
| 2023 | Shohei Ohtani |
| 2022 | Aaron Judge |
| 2021 | Shohei Ohtani |
| 2020 |  Jose Abreu |
| 2019 | Mike Trout |
| 2018 |  Mookie Betts |
| 2017 |  Jose Altuve |
| 2016 | Mike Trout |
Previous NL MVP winners
| Year | National League Winner |
|---|---|
| 2025 |  Shohei Ohtani |
| 2024 | Shohei Ohtani |
| 2023 |  Ronald Acuna Jr. |
| 2022 |  Paul Goldschmidt |
| 2021 |  Bryce Harper |
| 2020 | Freddie Freeman |
| 2019 | Cody Bellinger |
| 2018 |  Christian Yelich |
| 2017 |  Giancarlo Stanton |
| 2016 |  Kris Bryant |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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MLB MVP FAQ
Houston Astros DH Yordan Alvarez is the current AL favorite.
Chicago Cubs center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong is the favorite to win NL MVP.
Of the 33 players to have multiple MVP trophies, Barry Bonds is far and away the leader with seven. Ten other players have won three and no one besides Bonds has won more.
AL and NL MVP awards are typically announced in mid-November after the World Series has been played. The 2023 awards were announced on November 16.
Since 1931, members of the Baseball Writer's Association of America (BBWAA) have submitted ranked ballots. Two writers from each MLB city vote for the awards in their respective league.
