Shohei Ohtani likely won't pitch again this season and recently missed four straight games. That may not seem like much, but it could be enough to give Pete Crow-Armstrong the hardware.
MLB odds also still favor Yordan Alvarez in the AL, but the Triple Crown is slipping through his fingers. Will his MVP chances similarly erode?
For more analysis, check out our MLB MVP odds and predictions below.
- Key Takeaways:
- Witt being overlooked
- PCA has NL in the bag
Odds to win 2026 AL MVP
Junior CamineroOdds last updated on 9-8. Odds from Polymarket. Use our Polymarket promo code (COVERS) for a $20 trading bonus when you deposit at least $10 as a new user.
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Odds to win 2026 NL MVP
Odds last updated on 9-8.
MLB MVP odds favorites
Yordan Alvarez (92%)
Yordan Alvarez went deep on Sunday, hitting his first home run since Aug. 29 and just his second in 21 games since Aug. 15. His 38 home runs are tied for the AL lead with Junior Caminero, who is running a distant second in probability to win AL MVP.
A major narrative hook for Alvarez had been his pursuit of the Triple Crown, an honor that would more or less cement him as the runaway winner. While he's still positioned as the overwhelming favorite, Caminero has tied him for the home run lead, and Pete Alonso has surpassed him in the RBI category.
Bobby Witt Jr. should be closer to him in the odds. Witt is an elite defensive shortstop, and though his overall numbers haven't been quite as impressive as when he was runner-up to Aaron Judge in each of the last two seasons, it's insane that he's not garnering more attention.
If Alvarez wins the Triple Crown, fine. If not, give it to Witt, who's the more complete player.
Pete Crow-Armstrong (95%)
Shohei Ohtani missed four consecutive games this past week before returning to the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup on Monday. It seems unlikely that he will return to the mound in any capacity, either, as his focus going forward will be on hitting.
This could seal the deal for Pete Crow-Armstrong, who leads MLB in fWAR at 9.9, more than three full wins over Witt (6.5).
PCA hit his 40th and 41st home runs over the weekend and added a pair of stolen bases to reach 35, putting him within sniffing distance of a 40-40 season. With Ohtani relegated to DH duties, Crow-Armstrong's elite defense puts him over the top.
The only thing standing in his way now is an injury. And even then, it seems far-fetched that it would even derail his chances by all that much.
MLB MVP futures predictions
| Prediction | Odds | Prediction date | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
 Bobby Witt Jr. |
2% | Sept. 1 | 0.25 |
 Pete Crow-Armstrong |
22.2% | Aug. 1 | 1 |
 Mike Trout |
4.76% | April 21 | 0.5 |
 Ben Rice |
6.25% | April 21 | 0.5 |
 Gunnar Henderson |
6.25% | March 24 | 0.5 |
 Wyatt Langford |
2.44% | February 25 | 0.25 |
 Jackson Merrill |
1.79% | February 25 | 0.25 |
My MVP predictions have gone poorly, but I also haven't chased anything to make up for early mistakes.
However, the value on Witt is simply too good to pass up even if his chances are notably slim. In an age when WAR holds significant weight and voters are looking beyond the slash line, Witt does everything so well that it makes sense to go with him over Alvarez, a wonderful slugger who rarely plays defense and doesn't do it particularly well when he does.
I did snag Crow-Armstrong when he was still plus money, and I'm glad I did. I wish I got him at a better number, but better late than never.
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Previous MVP winners
Here are the last 10 winners of the AL and NL MVP Award, with Shohei Ohtani leading the way as a four-time winner, with two in the AL and two in the NL. Only Frank Robinson has also won MVP awards in both leagues.
Barry Bonds holds the record for most MVP awards (seven).
The New York Yankees have won the most MVPs in MLB history with 25, while the St. Louis Cardinals are second, leading all NL teams, with 21. No player for the Arizona Diamondbacks, New York Mets, or Tampa Bay Rays has ever won MVP.
Previous AL MVP winners
| Year | American League Winner |
|---|---|
| 2025 | Aaron Judge |
| 2024 | Aaron Judge |
| 2023 | Shohei Ohtani |
| 2022 | Aaron Judge |
| 2021 | Shohei Ohtani |
| 2020 |  Jose Abreu |
| 2019 | Mike Trout |
| 2018 |  Mookie Betts |
| 2017 |  Jose Altuve |
| 2016 | Mike Trout |
Previous NL MVP winners
| Year | National League Winner |
|---|---|
| 2025 |  Shohei Ohtani |
| 2024 | Shohei Ohtani |
| 2023 |  Ronald Acuna Jr. |
| 2022 |  Paul Goldschmidt |
| 2021 |  Bryce Harper |
| 2020 | Freddie Freeman |
| 2019 | Cody Bellinger |
| 2018 |  Christian Yelich |
| 2017 |  Giancarlo Stanton |
| 2016 |  Kris Bryant |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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MLB MVP FAQ
Houston Astros DH Yordan Alvarez is the current AL favorite.
Chicago Cubs center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong is the favorite to win NL MVP.
Of the 33 players to have multiple MVP trophies, Barry Bonds is far and away the leader with seven. Ten other players have won three and no one besides Bonds has won more.
AL and NL MVP awards are typically announced in mid-November after the World Series has been played. The 2023 awards were announced on November 16.
Since 1931, members of the Baseball Writer's Association of America (BBWAA) have submitted ranked ballots. Two writers from each MLB city vote for the awards in their respective league.
