Shohei Ohtani still isn't pitching, and Pete Crow-Armstrong has closed the gap in the MLB MVP odds.
MLB odds haven't completely shifted in PCA's favor, but he's drawn far closer than anyone may have expected.
For more analysis, check out our MLB MVP predictions below.
Odds to win 2026 AL MVP
Junior Caminero
Bobby Witt Jr.Odds last updated on 8-17. Odds from Polymarket. Use our Polymarket promo code (COVERS) for a $50 trading bonus when you deposit at least $20 as a new user.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Odds to win 2026 NL MVP
Pete Crow-ArmstrongOdds last updated on 8-17.
MLB MVP odds analysis
If Yordan Alvarez doesn't win AL MVP at this point, then something will have to go seriously wrong for him between now and September. Nick Kurtz, his chief competition for much of the year, likely won't play again this season, and Bobby Witt Jr.'s Kansas City Royals aren't competitive enough to get him the attention he probably deserves.
But the race between Shohei Ohtani and Pete Crow-Armstrong is shaping up to be something special, even if it is only close by circumstance.
Ohtani hasn't pitched in almost two months due to a lingering knee issue. The injury hasn't taken him out of the lineup, but he's also not hitting to his past potential. That .289/.388/.540 with 27 home runs in mid-August is "disappointing" shows the standard he's set, and he'd have odds akin to Alvarez if PCA didn't exist.
Crow-Armstrong is batting .276/.374/.533 with 28 home runs and 30 stolen bases. He may not reach 40-40, but 35-35 feels almost assured. And yes, those offensive numbers are comparable, even a little worse, than Ohtani's, but he's also the best defensive center fielder in baseball. Ohtani doesn't play the field, so when he can't pitch, he's basically a DH.
Will that be the deal-breaker? If Ohtani can return to the mound effectively for the last month, then maybe he ultimately pulls away. If not, then PCA has a legitimate claim as a true five-tool player.
MLB MVP futures predictions
| Prediction | Odds | Prediction date | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
 Mike Trout |
+2000 | April 21 | 0.5 |
 Ben Rice |
+2500 | April 21 | 0.5 |
 Gunnar Henderson |
+1500 | March 24 | 0.5 |
 Wyatt Langford |
+4000 | February 25 | 0.25 |
 Jackson Merrill |
+5500 | February 25 | 0.25 |
Previous MVP picks thread
4/21: Trout + Rice
You might say jumping on Mike Trout and Ben Rice now is chasing a ghost, but I don't think either one can be discounted as fool's gold. Trout has the history to back it up, and he's simply healthy. I think we need to see an uptick in his batting average for him to be a real contender here, but he's got the second-best walk rate in the AL and has been burned a bit by BABIP. Rice leads MLB in wRC+ and is in contention for the AL batting title in the early going. His advanced metrics are through the roof, and his offensive numbers are, at least for now, better than Aaron Judge's. If you want to be cautious, wait it out, but you risk the +2500 odds to shorten even more.
3/24: Henderson
Baltimore Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson won AL Rookie of the Year in 2023, establishing himself as one of baseball's brightest young stars. He then finished fourth in MVP voting in 2024 after hitting .281/.364/.893 with 37 home runs and 92 RBI. Injuries slowed his start in 2025, and his stat line was disappointing relative to what had preceded it, but he still hit .274 with 17 homers in 154 games. While his power was sapped by a shoulder impingement for much of the year, he leaned into his wheels, stealing 30 bases. Fully healthy, we could be looking at a 30-30 season as a baseline. I'm putting half a unit on him at +1500, which is only a touch shorter than the +1600 it was earlier in the month. A hot start, and that number flies out the window.
2/25: Langford + Merrill
Wyatt Langford is a legitimate five-tool talent, not unlike Boston Red Sox outfielder Roman Anthony. The difference is Anthony is +1700 entering his second season (first full year), while Langford is +4000 entering his third. I expect Langford to take strides in his strikeout rate, which was a high but not catastrophic 26.4% last season. He doesn't have a history of high K%, and we shouldn't expect it to be the norm now.
Langford also rips the shit out of the ball. He ranked in the 87th percentile in barrel rate, 82nd in average exit velocity, 81st in hard-hit rate, and 90th in walk rate. He has patience and makes good, hard contact with consistency. He also plays strong outfield defense and was in the 88th percentile in sprint speed. A 40-40 season isn't the craziest outcome to consider.
On the National League side of things, San Diego Padres outfielder Jackson Merrill was just shy of winning Rookie of the Year in 2024, and expectations were sky-high. But injuries limited him to 115 games, and he stole only one base after swiping 16 as a rookie. He also saw his strikeout rate spike from 17% to 22.4%. As with Langford, we can anticipate positive regression based on past performance in the minors.
He was still an above-average hitter (116 wRC+, 3.0 FanGraphs WAR), but it was a step down. His expected slugging was still in the 86th percentile, and he lifts the ball at an elite level, rarely hitting grounders. If he can push his hard-hit rate and exit velocity back to where they generally sat in 2024, a much better outcome is in the cards.
Popular MLB futures markets
- MLB World Series odds
- MLB Cy Young odds
- MLB Rookie of the Year odds
- MLB playoff odds
- MLB HR title odds
Previous MVP winners
Here are the last 10 winners of the AL and NL MVP Award, with Shohei Ohtani leading the way as a four-time winner, with two in the AL and two in the NL. Only Frank Robinson has also won MVP awards in both leagues.
Barry Bonds holds the record for most MVP awards (seven).
The New York Yankees have won the most MVPs in MLB history with 25, while the St. Louis Cardinals are second, leading all NL teams, with 21. No player for the Arizona Diamondbacks, New York Mets, or Tampa Bay Rays has ever won MVP.
Previous AL MVP winners
| Year | American League Winner |
|---|---|
| 2025 | Aaron Judge |
| 2024 | Aaron Judge |
| 2023 | Shohei Ohtani |
| 2022 | Aaron Judge |
| 2021 | Shohei Ohtani |
| 2020 |  Jose Abreu |
| 2019 | Mike Trout |
| 2018 |  Mookie Betts |
| 2017 |  Jose Altuve |
| 2016 | Mike Trout |
Previous NL MVP winners
| Year | National League Winner |
|---|---|
| 2025 |  Shohei Ohtani |
| 2024 | Shohei Ohtani |
| 2023 |  Ronald Acuna Jr. |
| 2022 |  Paul Goldschmidt |
| 2021 |  Bryce Harper |
| 2020 | Freddie Freeman |
| 2019 | Cody Bellinger |
| 2018 |  Christian Yelich |
| 2017 |  Giancarlo Stanton |
| 2016 |  Kris Bryant |
MLB MVP FAQ
Houston Astros DH Yordan Alvarez is the current AL favorite
Los Angeles Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani is the favorite to win NL MVP.
Of the 33 players to have multiple MVP trophies, Barry Bonds is far and away the leader with seven. Ten other players have won three and no one besides Bonds has won more.
AL and NL MVP awards are typically announced in mid-November after the World Series has been played. The 2023 awards were announced on November 16.
Since 1931, members of the Baseball Writer's Association of America (BBWAA) have submitted ranked ballots. Two writers from each MLB city vote for the awards in their respective league.
