With Shohei Ohtani on the injured list, you can put a bow on the NL MVP race. Pete Crow-Armstrong is a 99% favorite in the MLB MVP odds, and that even feels light.
MLB odds also still favor Yordan Alvarez in the AL, but the race should be closer than his 91% probability suggests.
For more analysis, check out our MLB MVP odds and predictions below.
- Key Takeaways:
- Witt being overlooked
- PCA has NL in the bag
Odds to win 2026 AL MVP
Junior CamineroOdds last updated on 9-15. Odds from Polymarket. Use our Polymarket promo code (COVERS) for a $20 trading bonus when you deposit at least $10 as a new user.
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Odds to win 2026 NL MVP
Odds last updated on 9-15.
MLB MVP odds favorites
Yordan Alvarez (91%)
Yordan Alvarez is having an incredible season, slashing .310/.427/.589 with 38 home runs and 96 RBI in 146 games. It wouldn't be insane if he were named AL MVP after the season.
However, I don't think he should win it. Bobby Witt Jr. may not exhibit the same power (18 home runs), but he's stolen 40 bases and is arguably the best defensive shortstop in MLB. That multi-faceted talent should count for something.
It's not merely because Witt has been worth more fWAR than Alvarez, but that helps paint the picture. Witt's defensive prowess is the element that ultimately puts him over the top.
Alvarez is one of baseball's most fearsome sluggers. This is very true, but much of his early hype was that he was on track to win the Triple Crown. Well, he has since given way to Junior Caminero in home runs (40-38) and Pete Alonso in RBI (100-96). He still leads in batting average, but only by a few percentage points over Chandler Simpson.
Take two legs of the Triple Crown away from someone who doesn't play defense often, and certainly not at an elite level when he does, and that's simply not an MVP to my eyes.
If your argument is "MVP should mean a player elevates his team into contention," well, that just hasn't been consistently applied through recent years. Otherwise, Shohei Ohtani wouldn't have won any with the Angels (or Mike Trout before that).
Alvarez is also batting .206 with just one home run in September and has gone deep only thrice since Aug. 1. The overall numbers remain impressive, but I'm surprised that he's held onto such lofty a favorite status despite a prolonged slump (by his standards).
Pete Crow-Armstrong (99%)
Shohei Ohtani won't pitch again this season and may not even hit until the playoffs. No one else will challenge Pete Crow-Armstrong in this race. Even if the Cubs rested him from here on out, PCA is the eventual NL MVP winner. Shut it down.
MLB MVP futures predictions
| Prediction | Odds | Prediction date | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
 Bobby Witt Jr. |
2% | Sept. 1 | 0.25 |
 Pete Crow-Armstrong |
22.2% | Aug. 1 | 1 |
 Mike Trout |
4.76% | April 21 | 0.5 |
 Ben Rice |
6.25% | April 21 | 0.5 |
 Gunnar Henderson |
6.25% | March 24 | 0.5 |
 Wyatt Langford |
2.44% | February 25 | 0.25 |
 Jackson Merrill |
1.79% | February 25 | 0.25 |
My MVP predictions have gone poorly, but I also haven't chased anything to make up for early mistakes.
However, the value on Witt is simply too good to pass up even if his chances are notably slim. In an age when WAR holds significant weight and voters are looking beyond the slash line, Witt does everything so well that it makes sense to go with him over Alvarez, a wonderful slugger who rarely plays defense and doesn't do it particularly well when he does.
I did snag Crow-Armstrong when he was still plus money, and I'm glad I did. I wish I got him at a better number, but better late than never.
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Previous MVP winners
Here are the last 10 winners of the AL and NL MVP Award, with Shohei Ohtani leading the way as a four-time winner, with two in the AL and two in the NL. Only Frank Robinson has also won MVP awards in both leagues.
Barry Bonds holds the record for most MVP awards (seven).
The New York Yankees have won the most MVPs in MLB history with 25, while the St. Louis Cardinals are second, leading all NL teams, with 21. No player for the Arizona Diamondbacks, New York Mets, or Tampa Bay Rays has ever won MVP.
Previous AL MVP winners
| Year | American League Winner |
|---|---|
| 2025 | Aaron Judge |
| 2024 | Aaron Judge |
| 2023 | Shohei Ohtani |
| 2022 | Aaron Judge |
| 2021 | Shohei Ohtani |
| 2020 |  Jose Abreu |
| 2019 | Mike Trout |
| 2018 |  Mookie Betts |
| 2017 |  Jose Altuve |
| 2016 | Mike Trout |
Previous NL MVP winners
| Year | National League Winner |
|---|---|
| 2025 |  Shohei Ohtani |
| 2024 | Shohei Ohtani |
| 2023 |  Ronald Acuna Jr. |
| 2022 |  Paul Goldschmidt |
| 2021 |  Bryce Harper |
| 2020 | Freddie Freeman |
| 2019 | Cody Bellinger |
| 2018 |  Christian Yelich |
| 2017 |  Giancarlo Stanton |
| 2016 |  Kris Bryant |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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MLB MVP FAQ
Houston Astros DH Yordan Alvarez is the current AL favorite.
Chicago Cubs center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong is the favorite to win NL MVP.
Of the 33 players to have multiple MVP trophies, Barry Bonds is far and away the leader with seven. Ten other players have won three and no one besides Bonds has won more.
AL and NL MVP awards are typically announced in mid-November after the World Series has been played. The 2023 awards were announced on November 16.
Since 1931, members of the Baseball Writer's Association of America (BBWAA) have submitted ranked ballots. Two writers from each MLB city vote for the awards in their respective league.
