Pete Crow-Armstrong is a 99% favorite, and Yordan Alvarez is sitting at 93% in the MLB MVP odds.
MLB odds have a few dark-horse candidates, but few seem like legitimate options to usurp our leaders, especially on the NL side.
For more analysis, check out our MLB MVP odds and predictions below.
- Key Takeaways:
- Alvarez in control of AL
- Schlittler, Alonso among dark horses
- PCA has NL in the bag
Odds to win 2026 AL MVP
Junior Caminero
Miguel VargasOdds last updated on 9-23. Odds from Polymarket. Use our Polymarket promo code (COVERS) for a $20 trading bonus when you deposit at least $10 as a new user.
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Odds to win 2026 NL MVP
Odds last updated on 9-23.
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MLB MVP odds favorites
Yordan Alvarez (91%)
Yordan Alvarez was cruising toward a Triple Crown earlier this season, and it still could happen, but it seems unlikely. He has tied Junior Caminero for the home run lead, and still paces the Junior Circuit in batting average at .314. The biggest hurdle will be RBI, which he trails Pete Alonso by six with only a few days left to play.
Alonso has jumped into dark-horse status as he's put together a rock-solid debut season with the Baltimore Orioles, and he is likely making history. Since 1920, no player has had seasons where he led both leagues in RBI. Alonso led the NL in 2022 and has a strong lead in the AL.
Still, no one has really taken the opportunity to topple Alvarez. Bobby Witt Jr. leads the AL in fWAR, but that doesn't seem to be moving the needle.
So, should Cam Schlittler get more attention? He leads all AL pitchers with 6.1 fWAR and has a 1.94 ERA over 190 2/3 innings. The last pitcher to win AL MVP (not counting Shohei Ohtani serving double-duty) was Justin Verlander in 2011, when he went 24-5 with a 2.40 ERA over 251 innings (!!). He was the first AL pitcher to win MVP since Dennis Eckersley won a weird one in 1992 as the A's closer.
Pitchers don't win MVP that often, and that may be what voters see the Cy Young as accomplishing.
Pete Crow-Armstrong (99%)
No one is challenging Pete Crow-Armstrong in this race. It's done. He's about to become the seventh player with a 40-40 season in MLB history (the third since 2023, shockingly). He needs one more stolen base to make that happen, but that shouldn't be a problem as he's done so in back-to-back games and has seven in September.
MLB MVP futures predictions
| Prediction | Odds | Prediction date | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
 Bobby Witt Jr. |
2% | Sept. 1 | 0.25 |
 Pete Crow-Armstrong |
22.2% | Aug. 1 | 1 |
 Mike Trout |
4.76% | April 21 | 0.5 |
 Ben Rice |
6.25% | April 21 | 0.5 |
 Gunnar Henderson |
6.25% | March 24 | 0.5 |
 Wyatt Langford |
2.44% | February 25 | 0.25 |
 Jackson Merrill |
1.79% | February 25 | 0.25 |
My MVP predictions have gone poorly, but I also haven't chased anything to make up for early mistakes.
However, the value on Witt is simply too good to pass up even if his chances are notably slim. In an age when WAR holds significant weight and voters are looking beyond the slash line, Witt does everything so well that it makes sense to go with him over Alvarez, a wonderful slugger who rarely plays defense and doesn't do it particularly well when he does.
I did snag Crow-Armstrong when he was still plus money, and I'm glad I did. I wish I got him at a better number, but better late than never.
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Previous MVP winners
Here are the last 10 winners of the AL and NL MVP Award, with Shohei Ohtani leading the way as a four-time winner, with two in the AL and two in the NL. Only Frank Robinson has also won MVP awards in both leagues.
Barry Bonds holds the record for most MVP awards (seven).
The New York Yankees have won the most MVPs in MLB history with 25, while the St. Louis Cardinals are second, leading all NL teams, with 21. No player for the Arizona Diamondbacks, New York Mets, or Tampa Bay Rays has ever won MVP.
Previous AL MVP winners
| Year | American League Winner |
|---|---|
| 2025 | Aaron Judge |
| 2024 | Aaron Judge |
| 2023 | Shohei Ohtani |
| 2022 | Aaron Judge |
| 2021 | Shohei Ohtani |
| 2020 |  Jose Abreu |
| 2019 | Mike Trout |
| 2018 |  Mookie Betts |
| 2017 |  Jose Altuve |
| 2016 | Mike Trout |
Previous NL MVP winners
| Year | National League Winner |
|---|---|
| 2025 |  Shohei Ohtani |
| 2024 | Shohei Ohtani |
| 2023 |  Ronald Acuna Jr. |
| 2022 |  Paul Goldschmidt |
| 2021 |  Bryce Harper |
| 2020 | Freddie Freeman |
| 2019 | Cody Bellinger |
| 2018 |  Christian Yelich |
| 2017 |  Giancarlo Stanton |
| 2016 |  Kris Bryant |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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MLB MVP FAQ
Houston Astros DH Yordan Alvarez is the current AL favorite.
Chicago Cubs center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong is the favorite to win NL MVP.
Of the 33 players to have multiple MVP trophies, Barry Bonds is far and away the leader with seven. Ten other players have won three and no one besides Bonds has won more.
AL and NL MVP awards are typically announced in mid-November after the World Series has been played. The 2023 awards were announced on November 16.
Since 1931, members of the Baseball Writer's Association of America (BBWAA) have submitted ranked ballots. Two writers from each MLB city vote for the awards in their respective league.
