With one month left on the MLB calendar, the MVP races have narrowed down to the cream of the crop.
MLB odds favor Yordan Alvarez and Pete Crow-Armstrong in their respective leagues, but that doesn't mean they're total locks just yet.
For more analysis, check out our MLB MVP odds and predictions below.
- Key Takeaways:
- Can Witt topple Alvarez?
- PCA has the edge
Odds to win 2026 AL MVP
Odds last updated on 9-1. Odds from Polymarket. Use our Polymarket promo code (COVERS) for a $20 trading bonus when you deposit at least $10 as a new user.
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Odds to win 2026 NL MVP
Odds last updated on 9-1.
MLB MVP odds favorites
Yordan Alvarez (93%)
Is Yordan Alvarez being valued too highly?
Obviously, the Houston Astros designated hitter has earned his spot as AL MVP favorite, batting .317/.432/.605 with 37 home runs, 94 RBI, and a 181 wRC+.
But the power has slowed, and he's now tied with Junior Caminero for the AL lead in home runs, putting his Triple Crown in jeopardy.
If analytics darlings have their way, Bobby Witt Jr. may finally win an MVP, and he'd be deserving. That is, of course, unless you subscribe to the notion that a non-playoff team shouldn't produce an MVP, but that way of thinking feels increasingly antiquated — see Ohtani, Shohei when he was with the Angels.
Witt is the best defensive infielder in baseball. What he lacks in pop (only 16 home runs), he more than makes up for with elite glovework at shortstop and speed on the basepaths (36 stolen bases) while slashing .285/.361/.452.
If Alvarez wins the Triple Crown, the race is his. If Caminero takes the homer title, he could have a case, too. But Witt is a true five-tool talent who would likely have at least one MVP trophy on his mantle already if it weren't for Aaron Judge.
Pete Crow-Armstrong (79%)
Pete Crow-Armstrong leads MLB in WAR, and it's not particularly close. At 9.3 fWAR, he's nearly three full wins over Witt (6.4).
Now, Shohei Ohtani, PCA's chief competition, has been worth 6.8 WAR (3.9 as a hitter, 2.9 as a pitcher), so that's technically closer on the whole, but it's still a sizable gap. This is especially so after it was announced that his return to the mound was paused.
Ohtani seemed to be close to pitching in a major-league game for the first time since July before renewed pain in his knee forced the Los Angeles Dodgers to pull the plug. He'll remain a DH, barring further injury, but he can't be counted on to take the hill.
That puts PCA firmly in the lead, especially as he approaches the 40-home-run plateau and a potential 40-40 season (he has 32 stolen bases) while playing elite center-field defense.
MLB MVP futures predictions
| Prediction | Odds | Prediction date | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
 Bobby Witt Jr. |
2% | Sept. 1 | 0.25 |
 Pete Crow-Armstrong |
22.2% | Aug. 1 | 1 |
 Mike Trout |
4.76% | April 21 | 0.5 |
 Ben Rice |
6.25% | April 21 | 0.5 |
 Gunnar Henderson |
6.25% | March 24 | 0.5 |
 Wyatt Langford |
2.44% | February 25 | 0.25 |
 Jackson Merrill |
1.79% | February 25 | 0.25 |
My MVP predictions have gone poorly, but I also haven't chased anything to make up for early mistakes.
However, the value on Witt is simply too good to pass up even if his chances are notably slim. In an age when WAR holds significant weight and voters are looking beyond the slash line, Witt does everything so well that it makes sense to go with him over Alvarez, a wonderful slugger who rarely plays defense and doesn't do it particularly well when he does.
I did snag Crow-Armstrong when he was still plus money, and I'm glad I did. I wish I got him at a better number, but better late than never.
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Previous MVP winners
Here are the last 10 winners of the AL and NL MVP Award, with Shohei Ohtani leading the way as a four-time winner, with two in the AL and two in the NL. Only Frank Robinson has also won MVP awards in both leagues.
Barry Bonds holds the record for most MVP awards (seven).
The New York Yankees have won the most MVPs in MLB history with 25, while the St. Louis Cardinals are second, leading all NL teams, with 21. No player for the Arizona Diamondbacks, New York Mets, or Tampa Bay Rays has ever won MVP.
Previous AL MVP winners
| Year | American League Winner |
|---|---|
| 2025 | Aaron Judge |
| 2024 | Aaron Judge |
| 2023 | Shohei Ohtani |
| 2022 | Aaron Judge |
| 2021 | Shohei Ohtani |
| 2020 |  Jose Abreu |
| 2019 | Mike Trout |
| 2018 |  Mookie Betts |
| 2017 |  Jose Altuve |
| 2016 | Mike Trout |
Previous NL MVP winners
| Year | National League Winner |
|---|---|
| 2025 |  Shohei Ohtani |
| 2024 | Shohei Ohtani |
| 2023 |  Ronald Acuna Jr. |
| 2022 |  Paul Goldschmidt |
| 2021 |  Bryce Harper |
| 2020 | Freddie Freeman |
| 2019 | Cody Bellinger |
| 2018 |  Christian Yelich |
| 2017 |  Giancarlo Stanton |
| 2016 |  Kris Bryant |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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MLB MVP FAQ
Houston Astros DH Yordan Alvarez is the current AL favorite.
Chicago Cubs center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong is the favorite to win NL MVP.
Of the 33 players to have multiple MVP trophies, Barry Bonds is far and away the leader with seven. Ten other players have won three and no one besides Bonds has won more.
AL and NL MVP awards are typically announced in mid-November after the World Series has been played. The 2023 awards were announced on November 16.
Since 1931, members of the Baseball Writer's Association of America (BBWAA) have submitted ranked ballots. Two writers from each MLB city vote for the awards in their respective league.
