As we approach the end of May, there has been some shuffling on the AL and NL MVP odds races. While Shohei Ohtani and Manny Machado have held onto their positions as the solo favorites, they aren't exactly running away with the hardware.
Mookie Betts and Paul Goldschmidt have surged with unbelievable months at the plate in May in particular while Aaron Judge looks poised to cruise to the MLB home run crown.
Here are the latest MVP odds.
Odds to win AL MVP
|Shohei Ohtani (Los Angeles Angels)||-150|
|Aaron Judge (New York Yankees)||+350|
|Mike Trout (Los Angeles Angels)||+500|
|Jose Ramirez (Cleveland Guardians)||+1,000|
|Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Toronto Blue Jays)||+2,000|
|Byron Buxton (Minnesota Twins)||+3,000|
|Wander Franco (Tampa Bay Rays)||+3,000|
|Rafael Devers (Boston Red Sox)||+4,000|
|Yordan Alvarez (Houston Astros)||+5,000|
|Luis Robert (Chicago White Sox)||+6,000|
|Kyle Tucker (Houston Astros)||+8,000|
|George Springer (Toronto Blue Jays)||+10,000|
|Xander Bogaerts (Boston Red Sox)||+10,000|
|Giancarlo Stanton (New York Yankees)||+10,000|
Odds courtesy of SuperBook Sports as of May 25, 2022.
AL MVP favorites
Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels (-150)
Ohtani's bat still hasn't entirely awoken from its slumber, though he's hitting a respectable .256 with nine home runs and six stolen bases. He's actually been more impressive on the mound as he's authored a 3-2 record with a 2.82 ERA (2.16 FIP), 1.02 WHIP, and 53 strikeouts in just 38 1-3 innings. Will the shine of him continuing to succeed on both sides of the ball be enough to take home a second straight AL MVP? Odds are certainly in his favor.
Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (+350)
In the year of de-juiced baseballs, Judge hasn't slowed down. The slugging outfielder has 17 home runs through 41 games, leading the majors by a wide margin as three players are next in line with 12 apiece. And he's not just selling out for power, either. Judge is hitting .314 and has struck out in 26.6% of his plate appearances, which is only slightly higher than last season and otherwise below his career average.
Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels (+500)
Honestly, this might be incredible value for Trout. The three-time AL MVP is healthy and absolutely raking. The .328 batting average is great and so are the 12 home runs. But he's posted an MLB-best 223 weighted runs created plus, which takes park factor into consideration and 100 is considered league average. And while Trout finally had consecutive hitless games in mid-May, it's still a rarity that he ever takes an 0-fer. Barring injury, +500 is probably as good as you're going to get.
Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians (+1,000)
Ramirez has slowed a bit since his explosive April, but he has started running a bit more. All four of his stolen bases — a big part of his game in previous seasons — have come in May. Ramirez has struck out in just 8.2% of his plate appearances and hasn't struck out multiple times in a single game this season.
Odds to win NL MVP
|Manny Machado (Padres)||+275|
|Mookie Betts (Dodgers)||+500|
|Nolan Arenado (Cardinals)||+800|
|Bryce Harper (Phillies)||+800|
|Paul Goldschmidt (Cardinals)||+800|
|Pete Alonso (Mets)||+1,000|
|Freddie Freeman (Dodgers)||+1,200|
|Juan Soto (Nationals)||+1,400|
|C.J. Cron (Rockies)||+1,600|
|Jazz Chisholm Jr. (Marlins)||+3,000|
|Ronald Acuna Jr. (Braves)||+3,000|
|Austin Riley (Braves)||+4,000|
|Corbin Burnes (Brewers)||+4,000|
|Francisco Lindor (Mets)||+4,000|
|Ozzie Albies (Braves)||+4,000|
|Trea Turner (Dodgers)||+4,000|
|Willy Adames (Brewers)||+4,000|
|Christian Yelich (Brewers)||+5,000|
|Walker Buehler (Dodgers)||+8,000|
|Matt Olson (Braves)||+10,000|
|Cody Bellinger (Dodgers)||+10,000|
|Eric Hosmer (Padres)||+10,000|
Odds courtesy of SuperBook Sports as of May 25, 2022.
NL MVP favorites
Manny Machado, San Diego Padres (+275)
Who leads MLB in FanGraphs WAR? No, not Mike Trout or Aaron Judge. Not even Shohei Ohtani when accounting for his performance on both sides of the ball. That's right, Machado is tops at 3.5 thanks to an MLB-leading .368 batting average paired with a modest eight home runs and seven stolen bases. Paul Goldschmidt is his closest competition for the NL batting title with an impressive .344 average that is still 24 points below Machado's. The power might not be there, but Machado's the toughest out in the game. Let's not forget that he's a big reason why the Padres are staying afloat while Fernando Tatis Jr. continues to work his way back from injury, and that could also lend its hand to the narrative of Machado being "most valuable" even if San Diego isn't necessarily the best team.
Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers (+500)
At the end of April, Betts — one of the presumptive favorites to win MVP before the season — was hitting .230 with just five extra-base hits under his belt through 19 games played. His odds cratered and other, shinier, perhaps newer names took his place atop the odds board. Well, May has been a different story. In 21 games this month, Betts is batting .345 with nine home runs and eight doubles. He's only gone hitless three times and has multiple hits in nine of those 21 games. He's been the ultimate table-setter, batting leadoff and scoring 25 runs this month alone. He's back, baby.
Nolan Arenado, St. Louis Cardinals (+800)
Going in the opposite direction, Arenado has considerably cooled on the whole since the calendar flipped to May. Part of it may be a course correction on his batting average on balls in play. He had an unsustainable .415 BABIP in April. Similarly, he won't post a .214 BABIP the rest of the season like he has in May. Arenado is still batting .288/.351/.545 on the season, and if he maintains that baseline — or something close to it — he may have a high enough floor to make noise come October, especially if the Cardinals make the postseason.
Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies (+800)
Again, the question must be asked: is Bryce Harper underrated? Obviously, after winning his second career NL MVP in 2021, the answer would appear to be a resounding "no," but he dipped out of the favorites pool on the odds board for a brief spell a couple of weeks ago. That was the time to strike on his odds as they fell beyond 10/1. Harper, who is still under 30, is batting .302 with 10 home runs and six stolen bases through 38 games. If maintained, this would be the first time in his career where he's hit .300 in back-to-back seasons. He's not drawing as many walks with a career-low 6.7% walk rate, but he hasn't seen his strikeouts go up. He's simply making contact... and virtually none of it's of the soft variety. Nevertheless, the Phillies remain below .500 despite Harper's best efforts, which may hurt his chances at a repeat MVP performance regardless of his individual results.
Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis Cardinals (+800)
Next to Betts, there hasn't been a hotter hitter in May than Goldy. Just two weeks ago, the veteran first baseman's odds to win NL MVP were +6,000. That has understandably shortened after he's hit .402/.462/.768 with six home runs and 23 RBI in 21 games. He's also riding a 16-game hitting streak that has helped pull him within striking distance of the NL batting title. This has been music to the Cardinals' ears as Arenado has hit the skids a bit and the likes of Tyler O'Neill and Dylan Carlson have landed on the IL.
Understanding MLB MVP odds
Most sportsbooks will display odds in the American format as listed above. When Trout ran away with the MVP award in 2019 his odds had a minus (-) sign ahead of the number for a large part of the season.
- Mike Trout -1,000
That means that a bettor in August had to wager $1,000 to win $100 by betting on Trout to win MVP. Before the season starts, almost every player will have a plus (+) sign ahead of their odds.
- Jacob deGrom +3,300
That means a bettor would have profited $3,300 for a $100 wager on deGrom before the season started.
If American odds aren't your thing, simply use a tool like our odds converter to switch the odds to decimal or fractional format. Most online sportsbooks also give you the option to change the odds format that you see.
MLB MVP FAQ
Los Angeles Angels SP/DH Shohei Ohtani is the solo betting favorite to win AL MVP at -150.
San Diego Padres third baseman Manny Machado is the NL betting favorite at +275.
Los Angeles Angels two-way player Shohei Ohtani won the 2021 AL MVP. Toronto Blue Jays teammates Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Marcus Semien finished second and third, respectively.
Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Bryce Harper won the 2021 NL MVP. Washington Nationals outfielder Juan Soto finished second in voting.