The Detroit Tigers wrap up their seven-game homestand with a Monday afternoon tilt at Comerica Park against the Kansas City Royals.
Kansas City, sitting in first place in the Central, will look to complete the four-game sweep after winning a pair of tight contests over the weekend and is sending struggling righty Brad Keller to the hill, while Detroit counters with Spencer Turnbull.
Here are our best free MLB betting picks and predictions for Royals vs. Tigers, with first pitch scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET on April 26.
Royals vs Tigers odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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MLB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonDetroit went up a slim -110 favorite to Kansas City's -106 Sunday night at DraftKings, the moneyline flipped as far as K.C. -124, and it's Detroit -110 again at noon ET today. The Royals are taking 68 percent of bets and 58 percent of money. The total bounced between 8 and 8.5 several times, then dropped to 7.5 and is now 8, with 57 percent of bets on the Under and 51 percent of money on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameRoyals vs Tigers betting preview
Starting pitchers
Brad Keller (1-2, 12.00 ERA): Keller has had a rough go to start the 2021 year, turning in one solid performance and three duds, including his last start in which he couldn't make it out of the second inning for the second time this season. The Texas Rangers battered him around for six runs on nine hits before he was yanked after 1 1-3 innings of work. Keller's velocity and hard-hit rate are in line with where he's been the last few years as essentially a league-average pitcher, but his walk rate and inability to strand runners have come back to bite him, leading to the highest ERA in the majors among all starters who have thrown a minimum of 10 innings.
Spencer Turnbull (1-0, 1.80 ERA): The right-hander will be making his second start of the season after he was sidelined to begin the year due to COVID. He turned in a strong first outing, throwing five innings of one-run ball with six strikeouts against the Pirates. After a solid 2.9 WAR rookie season in 2019, Turnbull pitched well again during the shortened 2020 year, putting up a 3.97 ERA over 11 starts. His iffy control can hurt him, but he doesn't allow many homers and has struck out nearly a batter per inning throughout his short career.
Weather
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Key injuries
Royals: Greg Holland RP (Out), Adalberto Mondesi SS (Out).
Tigers: Nomar Mazara OF (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 9-1-1 in the last 11 meetings between the Tigers and Royals. Find more MLB betting trends for Royals vs. Tigers.
Moneyline pick
Are the Royals for real? It's too early to tell but they've certainly gotten off to a better start than many expected at 13-7, which has them sitting in first place. They've already built a six-game lead over last season's division-winning Minnesota Twins. They'll go for their fifth straight victory Monday, looking to sweep a Tigers team that they've held to three runs over the first three games of this series.
After a 6-2 series-opening win, the Royals followed it up with a 2-1 victory before blanking Detroit 4-0 on Sunday. Detroit has one of the worst offenses in baseball and a pitching staff that's nearly as bad, but the Royals deserve credit for their hot start after some difficult rebuilding years following their back-to-back World Series appearances.
While the Royals aren't doing any one thing at an elite level (outside of running the bases, as they are the top team in MLB according to FanGraphs' all-in-one baserunning stat, BsR), they are getting the job done in close games. Kansas City is 8-1 in contests decided by two runs or fewer, including a perfect 5-0 in one-run games.
Though it shouldn't surprise anyone if Turnbull puts together another strong start, it's hard to give the Tigers a vote of confidence when their offense has scored two runs or fewer in eight of the past 10 games, including getting shutout three times. With this game starting out as a pick 'em, back the Royals — who have won six of their last seven against Detroit — to complete the sweep.
PREDICTION: Royals (-110)
Over/Under pick
While Keller's struggles could be just what Detroit needs to bust out of its offensive funk, it could also be argued that the Tigers are exactly who Keller needs to turn his season around.
The Tigers are scoring fewer runs per game than any team in the majors and are dead last in batting average (.205), on-base percentage (.264), and OPS (.621). Though Keller doesn't miss many bats, Kansas City pitchers piled up 38 punchouts over the last three games against a Tigers club that strikes out more often than any team in the American League.
Kansas City, meanwhile, has hit fewer home runs than any AL team, and Turnbull's ability to limit the long ball (0.68 home runs allowed per nine innings for his career) should help him prevent one big swing from blowing this game open. This feels like a game that will be decided by the bullpens in the later innings.
Both teams have been cashing Unders consistently (Kansas City is 6-12-2, while Detroit is 7-14-1) and have shown little signs of offensive life throughout this series. The first three games produced two Unders and a push, and the Tigers have gone Over just once in their last nine contests. Overall, the Under is 9-1-1 in the last 11 head-to-head meetings, and only the Toronto Blue Jays have gone Under more frequently than these teams.
While Keller and Turnbull aren't world-beaters, they are both good enough to continue those trends.
PREDICTION: Under 8.5 (-115)
Royals vs Tigers betting card
- Royals (-110)
- Under 8.5 (-115)
Picks made on 4/25/2021 at 7:40 p.m. ET
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