The St. Louis Cardinals face off against the Pittsburgh Pirates in the second game of a three game set at PNC Park on July 23. Pittsburgh is sending rising superstar Paul Skenes to the mound, and my Cardinals vs. Pirates predictions are betting on another sterling start from the rookie hurler.
Here are my best free MLB picks for this NL Central showdown.
Cardinals vs Pirates prediction
My best bet
Pirates first five innings run line -0.5 (-130 at Bet99)
My analysis
There's a big discrepancy on the mound in this matchup with the St. Louis Cardinals starting Lance Lynn and the Pittsburgh Pirates giving the pill to Paul Skenes. Lynn has a 4.39 ERA with a 1.39 WHIP through 19 starts, and he ranks in the Bottom 20th percentile in xERA (4.91), xBA (.269), and barrel rate (10.2%).
The Pirates have struggled at the dish for most of the year, but they've picked things up this month, ranking ninth in the majors in batting average (.261) with an OPS of .745 in July. They should be able to have more offensive success than St. Louis will against Skenes.
The 22-year-old is 6-0 with a 1.90 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 89 strikeouts in 66 1-3 innings. He's pitched to an incredible 1.14 ERA in his last six starts, and that span began with a June 11 outing against the Cards, where he threw six innings of shutout ball.
Skenes does a terrific job of making batters miss, and while he's around the league average when it comes to hard-hit rate and exit velocity, that shouldn't hurt him much against a St. Louis lineup sitting Bottom 7 of the majors in both categories.
I'm hesitant to back the Pirates on the ML at -185, given how much better the Cardinals bullpen has been, but I like the Buccos to have a lead after five frames.
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Cardinals vs Pirates same-game parlay (SGP)
Pirates first five innings run line -0.5
Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBI
Lance Lynn Over 4.5 strikeouts
Bryan Reynolds leads the Buccos in slugging percentage (.486), and he slugs better at home (.515 compared to .459 on the road). He's been red-hot since the start of June, slashing .339/.395/.598 with 29 runs and 31 RBI in 43 games.
Lynn has struggled on the hill, but he does a good job of generating strikeouts. He's fanned at least five batters in 10 of his last 12 starts and the Pirates are 25th in the majors in strikeout rate.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cardinals vs Pirates odds
Cardinals vs Pirates live odds
Cardinals vs Pirates opening odds
- Run line: St. Louis +1.5 (-155) | Pittsburgh -1.5 (+130)
- Moneyline: St. Louis +145 | Pittsburgh -170
- Over/Under: Over 8 (+100) | Under 8 (-120)
Cardinals vs Pirates spread and Over/Under analysis
- Early money has come in on the Pirates and the Under, shifting their line to -185 and slimming the total to 7.5.
- The Pirates beat the Cardinals 2-1 last night and they've gone 9-2 in their last 11 games.
- The Cards are 4-6 in their last 10 and are now just one game ahead of Pittsburgh for second place in the NL Central.
- St. Louis was terrible at the plate at the beginning of the season but it's improved throughout the year, now batting .282 with an OPS of .773 this month.
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Cardinals vs Pirates trend
The Under has cashed in 23 of Pittsburgh's last 35 games (+10.15 Units / 27% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Pirates
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Cardinals vs Pirates game info
| Location: | PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date: | Tuesday, 7-23-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Midwest, SportsNet-Pittsburgh |
| Cardinals starting pitcher: | Lance Lynn (5-4, 4.39 ERA) |
| Pirates starting pitcher: | Paul Skenes (6-0, 1.90 ERA) |
Cardinals vs Pirates latest injuries
Cardinals vs Pirates weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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