The Detroit Lions welcome the Pittsburgh Steelers to Ford Field on Sunday. Detroit is in a dogfight for a playoff spot in the NFC, while Pittsburgh has just a one-game lead over Baltimore in the NFC North.
My early Steelers vs Lions predictions lean toward the home side in a high-scoring shootout in this pivotal Week 16 clash.
Here are my NFL picks for December 21.
Steelers vs Lions predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
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Early Steelers vs Lions spread pick: Lions -6.5
The Pittsburgh Steelers are coming off back-to-back wins against Baltimore and Miami. Meanwhile, the Detroit Lions are fresh off a 41-34 loss to the first-place Rams and have gone 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
That said, this is a spot Detroit has performed very well in during the Dan Campbell era. The Lions are 14-1 ATS after a loss since the midway point of the 2022 season. They tend to perform well at home, and I expect their offense to succeed here.
Pittsburgh is 28th in the league in defensive rush EPA, which should lead to a big game for Lions Pro Bowl RB Jahmyr Gibbs. The Steelers have also struggled to defend slot receivers, and Detroit has the league's best slot WR in Amon-Ra St. Brown.
The Lions' injury-depleted secondary has been torched lately, but the Steelers aren't built to take advantage. Pittsburgh is heavily reliant on short throws to backs and tight ends, with Aaron Rodgers dead last in the NFL in average intended air yards (5.6).
With the Steelers on a short week after playing on Monday night, I'm leaning towards the Lions on the early spread before it hits that key number of 7.0.
Early Steelers vs Lions total pick: Over 51.5
The Lions lead the NFL in points per game (30.6) with that number ticking up to 33.7 ppg at home. They should be able to move the ball against Pittsburgh, who surrenders 25.4 ppg on the road and ranks 21st in the league in defensive EPA.
Detroit struggled to convert on third down for most of the year, but has improved in that area after Dan Campbell took over play-calling duties.
The Lions are ninth in the league in third-down conversion rate over the last three games (45.7%) while Pittsburgh is just 27th in third-down defense (42.4%).
That said, Detroit's stop unit has collapsed, ranking 24th in the league in defensive EPA since Week 9. That has resulted in the Over cashing in six of the Lions' last seven games.
Meanwhile, the Steelers have scored 28 points in four of their last five contests. Rodgers has also looked sharp lately, completing 75.4% of his passes for 508 yards over the last two weeks.
Steelers vs Lions odds
- Steelers vs. Lions spread: Lions -6.5 (-120)
- Steelers vs. Lions moneyline: Steelers +270, Lions -335
- Steelers vs. Lions Over/Under: 51.5
How to watch Steelers vs Lions
- Steelers vs. Lions matchup
- Date: Sunday, December 21, 2025, 4:25 p.m. ET
- City: Detroit, MI
- Venue: Ford Field
- TV: CBS
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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