The game with the biggest playoff implications this weekend could be the Jacksonville Jaguars at the Denver Broncos, something I'm sure every football fan saw coming in Week 1.
Trevor Lawrence and the Jags are flying high since their bye week and have shot to the top of the AFC South. Meanwhile, the Broncos and Bo Nix hold the top spot in the AFC, but also have the Chargers nipping at their heels.
Here are my early Jaguars vs Broncos predictions and NFL picks for Sunday, December 21.
Jaguars vs Broncos predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
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Early Jaguars vs Broncos spread pick: Jaguars +3
The Jacksonville Jaguars have been hard for oddsmakers to figure out. After failing to cover in a four-game span by an average of 9.5 points, they’ve now covered in five straight by an average margin of 16.6.
The biggest key to their success on defense has been their ability to get to the quarterback, but the Denver Broncos feature the lowest sack rate allowed in the NFL. Bo Nix has thrived in an offense designed to get the ball out quickly, with 18.5% of his throws going to targets behind the line of scrimmage and nearly 63% going less than 10 yards.
But for all their impressive metrics, the Broncos are giving up yards on defense of late. While they came back this weekend from a nine-point hole against the Packers, it’s worth noting the rash of injuries Green Bay suffered in the second half.
In the seven games since Jacksonville’s bye week, Trevor Lawrence has thrown for nearly 1800 yards and 18 touchdowns against just six interceptions. Liam Coen is scheming receivers open, and will use the run game to slow the Denver pass rush.
Nix’s inability to throw downfield negates Jacksonville’s coverage issues. Combine that with Jacksonville’s highly-ranked rush defense and dangerous pass rush, and Cam Little drilling kicks in the thin air at Mile High, and I’m banking on the Jaguars once again being undervalued in a spot where I’m getting an even three points.
Early Jaguars vs Broncos total pick: Over 45.5
Jacksonville hasn’t been held Under 25 points since the bye week, but four of those six games have seen the game total stretch past the 50-point mark. That has led to the Over hitting in five of the last seven games.
And I’m expecting this game to breach the 50-point mark as well, which has me squarely on the Over. Denver’s run defense has been leaky the past few weeks, and that will let the Jaguars move the ball. Add in Little’s leg, and they should score anytime they get near midfield.
Nix won’t push the ball downfield as some teams do against the Jaguars, but Denver’s quick-pass scheme will help keep drives alive and negate some of the Jags' pass rush. He’ll also put together enough drives against a defense that struggles to get stops on third and five or less.
These two offenses are too good to be held below 24 points. Take the Over and enjoy what could be the game of the weekend.
Jaguars vs Broncos odds
- Jaguars vs. Broncos spread: Broncos -3
- Jaguars vs. Broncos moneyline: Jaguars +138, Broncos -164
- Jaguars vs. Broncos Over/Under: 45.5
How to watch Jaguars vs Broncos
- Jaguars vs. Broncos matchup
- Date: Sunday, December 21, 2025, 4:05 p.m. ET
- City: Denver, CO
- Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
- TV: FOX
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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