Cardinals vs Padres Picks and Predictions: So Wrong It's Wainwright

39-year-old Adam Wainwright is off to a solid start this season, pitching to a 1.22 WHIP to go along with a 3.80 ERA, and is coming off a near complete-game shutout against the Rockies.

Last Updated: May 15, 2021 6:15 PM ET
Adam Wainwright MLB St. Louis Cardinals
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

It looks like the St. Louis Cardinals and the San Diego Padres will be two of the better teams in the National League all season long, and Game 2 of this series is shaping up to be an awesome battle as Adam Wainwright toes the rubber against Chris Paddack.

The Padres will be slight betting favorites for this matchup, but is the value with the underdog Cards and their crafty veteran on the mound? Find out in our MLB free picks and predictions for Cardinals vs. Padres on Saturday, May 15, with first pitch scheduled for 8:40 p.m. ET.

Cardinals vs Padres game info

Location: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
Date: Saturday, May 15, 2021
Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
TV: Fox Sports 1

Cardinals vs Padres odds

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MLB Sharp Money and Line Movement Report

By Patrick Everson

San Diego hit the FanDuel odds board at -136 Friday night, dipped to -130 a couple of times, rose to -148 late this morning, then scaled back to -130, where the moneyline rests at 6:15 p.m. ET. The Padres are attracting 59 percent of tickets and 54 percent of money. The total moved from 7 to 6.5 multiple times and is now 7 (Under -112), with the Over landing 71 percent of tickets and money.

Check out the full line movement for this game

Cardinals vs Padres betting preview

Starting pitchers

Adam Wainwright (2-3, 3.80 ERA): Age is just a number for the veteran Wainwright. The 39-year-old is off to a solid start this season, pitching to a 1.22 WHIP to go along with a 3.80 ERA, and is coming off an impressive outing, nearly getting the complete-game shutout against the Rockies. He ended up going 8 1-3 innings allowing no runs on just three hits at the hitter-friendly Coors Field.

Chris Paddack (1-3, 3.42 ERA): Paddack pitched just three innings in his return from the IL, but he held the Giants scoreless on four hits and his fastball velocity looked better than it has for most of the season. Admittedly, Paddack knows he has to do a better job of keeping runners off the bases and improve on his 1.41 WHIP.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Cardinals: Andrew Miller RP (Out), Daniel Ponce de Leon RP (Out), Jordan Hicks RP (Out), Paul DeJong SS (Out).
Padres: Eric Hosmer 1B (Questionable), Jurickson Profar LF (Questionable), Drew Pomeranz RP (Out), Wil Myers RF (Out), Fernando Tatis (Out), Taylor Williams RP (Out), Dan Altavilla RP (Out), Keone Kela RP (Out).

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 5-1 in Adam Wainwright’s last six starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Padres.

Moneyline pick

The Padres are favorites in this game because, well, I’m not exactly sure why. Yes, they are a talented team, have a solid starter on the bump, and are at home. But there’s more to it than that.

The Padres are also dealing with a COVID outbreak with star Fernando Tatis Jr. and outfielder Wil Myers both testing positive, while first baseman Eric Hosmer is also questionable to play because of contact tracing. 

That is a huge chunk of the Padres’ production from a lineup that was already off to a slow start this season, and now they have to go up against veteran starter Adam Wainwright, who is in a groove right now. The right-hander has pitched at least seven innings and has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts.

On the other side, as mentioned, Paddack has allowed too many baserunners, and while the Cardinals don’t hit for a great average, they can take advantage of mistakes, ranking ninth in home runs. Paddack also allowed six runs on eight hits in 2 1-3 innings in a playoff game against the Cards last season.

With the Padres missing all those impact bats and the Cardinals having the edge in starters, the value is with the underdogs in this one.

PREDICTION: Cardinals (+120)

Over/Under pick

The total opened for this NL matchup at a nice-and-low 7.0 and for good reason. We already talked about all the production the Padres are missing from their lineup, but even with a healthy lineup, San Diego ranks 23rd in scoring at just 4.09 runs per game and 22nd in OPS.

While the Cardinals rank 12th in scoring at 4.58 runs per game, they rank 24th in batting average against right-handers and have scored two runs or fewer five times in the last eight games.

Plus, if Paddack does get in trouble, he hands the ball off to one of the best bullpens in the MLB. The Padres’ relievers rank second in ERA and third in WHIP. Bet on this one to be low scoring.

PREDICTION: Under 7 (-110)

Cardinals vs Padres betting card

  • Cardinals (+120)
  • Under 7 (-110)

Picks made on 5/15/2021 at 5:40 a.m. ET

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