Braves vs Brewers Picks and Predictions: Can Either Lineup Wake up?

May 15, 2021 |
Braves vs Brewers Picks and Predictions: Can Either Lineup Wake up?
Atlanta's Ian Anderson hasn’t quite matched his lofty rookie numbers this year, but has been a solid arm for the Braves and has recorded a quality start in three of his last four outings.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports
Atlanta's Ian Anderson hasn’t quite matched his lofty rookie numbers this year, but has been a solid arm for the Braves and has recorded a quality start in three of his last four outings.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Atlanta Braves and Milwaukee Brewers will continue their three-game set on Saturday night, one day after Marcell Ozuna and the visitors took the first game 6-3 in a one-sided performance.

Atlanta’s Ian Anderson will try and build off an outstanding rookie season and will duel against veteran left-hander Brett Anderson for the Brew Crew. The Braves’ Ronald Acuna is questionable with an ankle injury and missed yesterday’s game.

Here are our free picks and predictions for Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers for Saturday, May 15 (7:10 PM EST).

Braves vs Brewers game info

Location: American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI
Date: Saturday, May 15, 2021
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
TV: BSWI

Braves vs Brewers odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

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MLB Sharp Money and Line Movement Report

By Patrick Everson

This matchup opened as a -108 pick 'em at FanDuel on Friday night, and Atlanta got to -132 this afternoon before dialing down to -118, where the moneyline sits at 4:15 p.m. ET. The Braves are drawing 75 percent of tickets and 78 percent of money. The total toggled between 8 and 7.5 several times and is currently 7.5 (Over -118), with 69 percent of bets/72 percent of cash on the Over.

Check out the full line movement for this game

Braves vs Brewers betting preview

Starting pitchers

Ian Anderson (2-1, 3.46 ERA): The young right-hander hasn't been as dominant as his 2020 rookie season, but he's been consistently reliable over his seven starts this year. Anderson hasn’t allowed more than six hits in any start and has a K/9 north of nine. Across his four most recent starts, the former first-rounder has allowed just seven runs through 23 2-3 innings good for a 2.66 ERA.  

Brett Anderson (2-2, 3.54 ERA): It’s hard to believe that the 13-year MLB veteran is still just 33 years old. The ageless lefty is enjoying a solid campaign but is working his way back from a minor hamstring injury and tossed just three innings in his most recent start. Anderson — the left-handed one — hasn’t allowed a home run over his last 16 1-3 innings. The crafty lefty is one of the better pitchers at getting ground balls in the league — 54.5 percent.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Braves: Ronald Acuna OF (questionable), Alex Jackson C (out), Travis d’Arnaud C (out).
Brewers: Brent Suter RP (out), Christian Yelich OF (out), Eric Yardley RP (out).

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Brewers.

Moneyline pick

When we’re talking about struggling offenses, Cleveland, Detroit and Pittsburgh come to mind quickly, but the Brewers aren’t far off the league’s worst. Milwaukee and its .213/.298/.357-slashing lineup are creating runs at the third-lowest rate in the league and averaging a paltry 3.66 per game.

Things haven’t gotten any better of late either, as the last seven days heading into this weekend’s series with the Braves have the Brewers at 3-7 SU and scoring two runs per game. They were also shut out twice over that stretch.

Last night, facing one of the most generous pitchers in Drew Smyly, the Brewers managed just a single run across the game’s first eight innings before launching a pair of solo homers in the ninth versus a struggling Josh Tomlin. Without Christian Yelich and a lineup that gives you Kolten Wong, Lorenzo Cain, Daniel Vogelbach and Travis Shaw to start the game, opposing pitchers can’t wait to see the Brews.

Enter Atlanta’s Ian Anderson, who the Milwaukee batters have never seen aside for Jackie Bradley’s 0-for-2. Anderson flashed onto the MLB scene last year and posted a 2.53 ERA+ across 32 innings in his rookie season. The right-hander hasn’t matched those numbers this year, but has been a solid arm for the Braves and has recorded a quality start in three of his last four outings.

The Braves came into this series having dropped three straight to the Toronto Blue Jays but were winners of five of their last six before the sweep. In fact, if you take out the six games Atlanta has played against the Jays recently, you find a team that is 14-5 SU over the last month. Sure a lot of the bats are underperforming, but Ozuna, Ozzie Albies and Freddie Freeman all contributed in last night's victory, and needed to with the absence of Acuna. Our best guess is Acuna is more doubtful than probable for today.

The Braves’ bats will face Milwaukee’s Brett Anderson, who made his first start last Sunday after a hamstring injury sidelined him for nearly two weeks. The starter managed just three innings of quality ball and tossed only 53 pitches. We doubt the lefty goes deep in this one meaning the Braves’ bats will see plenty of the Milwaukee bullpen, which sits 24th in FIP. There are a few great arms in the Brewers’ bullpen, but expecting another five-six innings of flawless relief pitching in an Anderson start is asking for a lot.

PREDICTION: Atlanta ML (-112)

Over/Under pick

Yesterday’s game needed a bottom-of-the-ninth home run to clear the total in what can only be described as a gut-wrenching defeat to Under backers. Unphased, we’re going back to the Under in a game that features good starting pitching and a pair of struggling offenses.

Freddie Freeman, last season’s NL MVP, is hitting just .214 on the year and is joined by some other ice-cold bats — especially the middle of the order. The No. 2 through 4 spots in the Atlanta order are hitting a combined .218 with none of them posting an OPS above .790. Ozuna and Albies got into it last night, but consistency hasn’t been their thing all year. 

The Braves haven’t seen much of Brett Anderson and have struggled against lefties this season. No team strikes out more versus LHP than Atlanta. The last time this lineup faced a lefty, they managed just five hits and a single run with Acuna in the lineup.

We mentioned above about the lack of intimidation the Milwaukee lineup has. The Brewers managed just four hits off starter Drew Smyly, who leads in the NL in homers allowed. If they aren’t hitting Smyly, it doesn’t bode well for their chances against the former 2016 third-overall pick in Anderson.

PREDICTION: Under 7.5 (-105)

Braves vs Brewers betting card

  • Atlanta ML -112
  • Under 7.5 (-105)

Picks made on 5/15/2021 at 9:10 a.m. ET

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