One hit was all the New York Yankees could muster in the ALDS opener, but my Yankees vs. Rays predictions expect a much different result in Game 2.
Cam Schlittler gets the ball with New York trying to even the series, while Tampa Bay counters with a resurgent Freddy Peralta. In a matchup that could once again be decided on the mound, I’m siding with the Yankees’ young right-hander. Check out my other postseason angles in today’s MLB picks.
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Yankees vs Rays prediction: Yankees moneyline
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I'm backing the New York Yankees to 58%.
It's difficult not to back Cam Schlittler in the postseason, and even harder given the Yankees trail 1-0 in the series. Schlittler’s 2.85 xERA ranks in the 93rd percentile, and his improved command lets him attack without handing out the free baserunners that turn singles into crooked numbers.
The Tampa Bay Rays' underlying contact quality also gives me confidence. Their 30-day hitting snapshot produced just a .293 xwOBA, compared with New York’s .314.
Even though the Rays pose a unique issue against Schlittler, not being a high-strikeout team against a pitcher that is strikeout-reliant, the recent sample size doesn't make me a believer that they can attack him well enough. For instance, his sinker allowed just a .321 xSLG this year, an aspect that looms a little larger in the postseason.
On the other side, the Yankees finished the year ranking third in hard-hit rate (41.6%) and first in barrel rate (9.6%), making Freddy Peralta’s merely above-average contact suppression is a concern. A very viable scenario is that Peralta can pitch well and still surrender the extra-base damage that decides this matchup.
COVERS INTEL: Schlittler’s four-seamer held hitters to a .163 average with a 34.8% whiff rate this season.
Yankees vs Rays combo
Peralta’s contact management supports a quiet opening inning. He allowed barrels on just 5.8% of batted balls this season. Pair that with Schlittler’s command, and I prefer letting these starters settle in before looking for New York’s offense.
I priced the NRFI closer to 62%.
The other leg here is dependent on Ben Rice. His .378 xwOBA backs up the production, while a 12.7% walk rate gives him another way to reach base and contribute a run. I like that plate discipline against Peralta, who walked 63 hitters this season.
Yankees vs Rays combo
- Yankees moneyline
- NRFI
- Ben Rice Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI
Yankees vs Rays home run prediction: Ben Rice
Rice’s power matches up directly with Peralta’s primary pitch. He slugged .843 against four-seam fastballs, with a .760 xSLG supporting the damage. Peralta throws his four-seamer 53% of the time, and opponents generated a 46.8% hard-hit rate against it.
That gives Rice a clear pitch to hunt. His 14.3% barrel rate nearly doubles the league average, and his power has held up across consecutive seasons rather than appearing in one hot stretch. Peralta can mix in his changeup, but his reliance on the fastball should give Rice opportunities to attack something firm in the zone. This is the matchup I want for New York’s home-run target.
Yankees vs Rays player prop: Freddy Peralta Over 5.5 strikeouts
Even though I see New York getting the best of Peralta, this price is too good to pass up.
The Yankees' perpetual swing-and-miss profiles gives Peralta a path to getting there. The Yankees struck out in 30.5% of their plate appearances during the last two weeks of the regular season, then struck out another 12 times in the series opener.
Peralta’s curveball is the pitch I’m watching. It generated a 31.6% whiff rate this season, giving him a finishing option when hitters gear up for the fastball. His changeup adds separation, and another way to pull swings below the zone.
- ML/RL picks: 56-50, +10.69 units
- Over/Under picks: 60-43, +19.30 units
Yankees vs Rays weather
Dome.
Yankees vs Rays odds
- Moneyline: Yankees 53% | Rays 47%
- Run line: Yankees -1.5 | Rays +1.5
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 | Under 6.5
Yankees vs Rays trend
Yankees are 4-0 in Schlittler's last four starts vs. the American League East. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Rays.
How to watch Yankees vs Rays and game info
| Location | Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL |
| Date | Monday, Oct. 5, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Cam Schlittler (14-6, 1.95 ERA) |
| Rays starting pitcher | Freddy Peralta (10-11, 4.42 ERA) |
Yankees vs Rays latest injuries
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