There might not be a lot of scoring today, but my home run props believe keeping the ball in the yard won’t be easy for some pitchers battling workload issues, poor second halves, and even unsustainable end-of-season runs.
Munetaka Murakami knows how to take Gavin Williams deep, and if I’m doubling up on homers in one game today, it’s indoors with Cam Schlittler coming off a 117-pitch outing and Freddy Peralta due for some regression.
These are my favorite MLB player props for Monday, Oct. 5.
MLB home run props for today
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Munetaka Murakami
Junior Caminero
Home run prediction: Munetaka Murakami
I’m not getting off the Munetaka Murakami train today against Gavin Williams.
The White Sox-Guardians series is not going to be high-scoring, but the runs that do cross the plate are more than likely coming via the long ball. The Sox won Game 1 3-0, but two of those runs came on a Murakami home run. He's a buy for me today to 20%.
Williams is a great pitcher who slipped a little in the second half, but he also gives up homers at a higher rate than you might assume. Only five other pitchers this season allowed more home runs than the Cleveland starter’s 28 over 184 innings.
If I’m backing one bat in this outdoor game, it’s the Japanese slugger who might be becoming a lot of people’s favorite MLB player.
- Time: 5 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: TBS
Home run prediction: Junior Caminero
Cam Schlittler is coming off a massive 117-pitch outing in his last start and isn’t working on any extra rest. I love targeting pitchers coming off season-high workloads, and I get that chance Monday night.
Junior Caminero has seen Schlittler the most of all Rays hitters and is one of just two Tampa bats to take him deep. He’s 21% to go deep, which is one of his longest prices of the year, and there is value today with Schlittler coming off that massive workload.
I’m pushing this to a fair probability of 23%. The indoor setting only helps.
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: TBS
- HR picks: 41-158 -19.3 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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