The American League gets the spotlight again tonight, and our MLB expert picks are assessing the two compelling ALDS matchups.
They're all over the White Sox, who get a chance to take a commanding 2-0 series lead over the division rival Cleveland Guardians. Meanwhile, the New York Yankees will turn to their ace and the likely AL Cy Young winner Cam Schlittler to avoid falling down a two-game hole against the Tampa Bay Rays.
Here's how we're breaking down our MLB picks for Monday, Oct. 5.
MLB expert picks for today
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Josh Inglis: CHW team total o2.5 |
55% |
 Jon Metler: CHW ML |
43% |
 Joe Osborne: NYY ML |
54% |
Probabilities courtesy of Polymarket. For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: White Sox team total Over 2.5
Price: 55¢ at Polymarket
Give me the White Sox and their one-swing offense to score three-plus runs today at 55%, with a fair probability of 60% and a projection of 3.59 runs scored, per THE BAT.
Gavin Williams hasn’t been elite over his last 45 innings dating back to Aug. 8, pitching to a 4.37 ERA while allowing seven homers. In fact, Cleveland's Game 2 starter finished tied for the 11th-most home runs allowed overall this season, and fifth-most in the AL.
The White Sox have also seen Williams four times this year, including twice during that 45-inning stretch, with Munetaka Murakami and Miguel Vargas both taking him deep.
- Time: 5 p.m. ET
- How to watch: TBS
Jon Metler's expert pick: White Sox moneyline
Price: 43¢ at Polymarket
The Chicago White Sox are trading at 43% to win Game 2 on Monday, and I'll hit the button on that number, as I price them closer to 46% against the Cleveland Guardians. Anthony Kay will serve as the opener, with Sean Burke expected to handle the bulk of the innings.
The Guardians are stacking eight left-handed bats against the righty in a countermove, but I don't think the matchup is as concerning for Burke as it might look on the surface. The Guardians don't boast much left-handed power.
Instead, the Guardians' lefties are more focused on hitting line drives and ground balls, which plays into Burke's strengths. He should be able to use his sinker and cutter to generate weak ground-ball contact against those lefties, keeping the Guardians' offense in check.
- Time: 5 p.m. ET
- How to watch: TBS
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Yankees moneyline
Price: 54¢ at Polymarket
With both offenses limping into this series, I’m backing the better starter in Cam Schlittler of the New York Yankees. He posted a ridiculous 1.16 road ERA this season, while Tampa Bay Rays hitters own a .592 OPS against him across 82 at-bats. October hasn’t rattled him either, with Schlittler putting up a 0.87 ERA in three postseason starts.
Freddy Peralta brings more red flags, with Yankees hitters producing an .872 OPS across 113 at-bats against him. His ERA also climbs to 4.32 over nine postseason appearances. With runs potentially tough to find tonight, New York’s significant starting pitching edge makes the Yankees' moneyline the play.
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
- How to watch: TBS
More MLB picks for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yankees ML | 55% |
| Read analysis in our Yankees vs. Rays predictions | |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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