The Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Guardians played a very low-event series opener, combining for just nine hits.
I expect more offense in Game 2 and have isolated three likely hit targets in my White Sox vs. Guardians prop picks and MLB picks for Monday, Oct. 5.
For more analysis, read our White Sox vs. Guardians predictions.
Best White Sox vs Guardians props
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Miguel Vargas Over 0.5 hits |
58% |
 Travis Bazzana Over 0.5 hits |
58% |
| Sam Antonacci Over 0.5 hits |
63% |
Prop pick #1: Miguel Vargas Over 0.5 hits
I’m on Miguel Vargas to get a knock and see value to 61%.
Vargas has recorded a hit in 12 of 14 games against the Cleveland Guardians this season and has no trouble facing Gavin Williams.
Vargas has hit safely in six of 14 at-bats against Williams. He’s seen 88 pitches in those ABs, giving him plenty of chances to get familiar with the movement and speed and adjust accordingly.
He leads all Chicago White Sox players in total hits and OBP against Guardians relievers, making him a threat every time he steps in the box.
Prop pick #2: Travis Bazzana Over 0.5 hits
I like Travis Bazzana to get a hit to 60%.
He really put it together for the Guardians down the stretch, hitting .280 in September with a team-best .415 wOBA.
Chicago’s pitching plan works very much in his favor. Despite his underwhelming results against lefties altogether, Bazzana is 4-for-11 against starter Anthony Kay in his career.
When Kay departs, Bazzana should see more righties out of the Chicago bullpen, including usual starter Sean Burke. That's not a problem. He is much better against right-handed pitching and posted a .272 average over the regular season.
Prop pick #3: Sam Antonacci Over 0.5 hits
Sam Antonacci is the final player I’m targeting for a hit, and I like him to 65%.
He hit .359 against right-handed pitching over the final month of the season. It wasn’t smoke and mirrors, either. His xBA was actually higher at .363.
He consistently made quality contact, leading the White Sox with a 26.2% line drive rate.
Perhaps most important was his 5.6% K-rate. He was nearly impossible to punch out, which will serve him well against a high-strikeout pitcher like Williams.
The Guards hurler ranks in the 97th percentile in strikeout rate, but allows opponents to hit him hard (first percentile hard-hit rate) when they make contact.
- Prop picks: 8-7, +0.25 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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