Ben Rice is swinging the hottest bat in the New York Yankees lineup, and he leads off our Yankees vs. Rays prop picks against Freddy Peralta tonight.
My MLB picks include one home run bet, one total-bases play, and a strikeout Over, with first pitch set for 8 p.m. ET.
Best Yankees vs Rays props
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Ben Rice home run |
21% |
| Luis Garcia Over 1.5 total bases |
44% |
| Cam Schlittler Over 6.5 strikeouts |
60% |
Prop pick #1: Ben Rice home run
Assuming Ben Rice hits leadoff with the platoon edge on Freddy Peralta, I'm buying him to homer at 21%, and I'd stay with it up to 25%.
Rice finished the regular season with 41 home runs, including 30 against right-handed pitching, slugging .578 in that split. He is scorching right now, batting .348 with seven homers over his last 18 games.
The pitch matchup is the sell. Peralta throws his four-seam fastball more than half the time, and Rice slugged .844 against four-seamers this season with a hard-hit rate north of 65%.
Peralta has been vulnerable to left-handed power, surrendering 17 home runs to lefties during the regular season. Rice did plenty of that damage himself, going deep seven times in 13 games against the Tampa Bay Rays.
Rice gets an extra plate appearance as the leadoff man, and 21% is a fair price on a hitter in this form.
Elsewhere, our Josh Inglis is targeting another slugger in this matchup as part of his MLB home run props.
Prop pick #2: Luis Garcia Over 1.5 total bases
Luis Garcia Jr. had some big hits in the Wild Card series and is poised for more signature moments. I like his Over 1.5 total bases at 44% and would keep buying through 47%.
Garcia did his damage against right-handed pitching this season, batting .283 with a .551 slugging percentage. He piled up 25 doubles, five triples, and 27 home runs in the split, so he does not need to leave the yard to cash this.
Peralta's mix plays right into it. The right-hander leans on his four-seamer, changeup, and curveball, with those three pitches making up roughly 90% of his offerings. Garcia slugged better than .520 against all three, including .630 against curveballs.
This prop also gives us more margin than the Rice home run. Two singles or one double gets there, and his power can clear the number with one swing.
Prop pick #3: Cam Schlittler Over 6.5 strikeouts
The likely AL Cy Young winner has been missing Tampa Bay bats all season, so I'm happy to buy Cam Schlittler Over 6.5 strikeouts at 60%. I'd stay in up to 63%.
Schlittler struck out 239 batters across 193 2/3 regular-season innings, better than 11 per nine. He was at his best away from the Bronx, leading the majors in road ERA at 1.16 while holding opponents to a .153 average.
He also owns 21 strikeouts in 16 innings against the Rays this season. Eight came over five innings in the first meeting, eight more across eight innings at Tropicana Field in July, and five in a three-inning tuneup on Sept. 24.
Workload is no concern either. Schlittler threw 117 pitches and struck out 10 over 6 1/3 innings in his Wild Card start, so the New York Yankees will let him work deep with the series on the line.
Schlittler's dominance is also central to one of our MLB expert picks.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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