The Atlanta Braves will look to build on a weekend sweep of the Twins as they host the St. Louis Cardinals for the start of a three-game series on Monday night.
We’ve got an excellent pitching matchup for the first game of the series, and that’s why I’m taking the Under in my Cardinals vs. Braves predictions below.
Read on to see the full analysis of tonight’s game in my free MLB picks for Monday, April 21.
Cardinals vs Braves prediction
My Cardinals vs Braves best bet: Under 8.5 (-105 at Caesars)
While the Atlanta Braves come into tonight’s game as the betting favorite, that’s not due to their offensive production. The Braves are averaging just 3.55 runs over their first 20 games, which ranks 24th in the majors — a surprisingly low rank for a team that was at least able to put together an average offense to complement its outstanding pitching staff.
In 2025, the Braves are hitting .229 with a .685 OPS overall. At some point, the return of Ronald Acuna Jr. might spark recovery in those numbers, but that’s likely still at least a month away. Austin Riley (.265, 5 HR, 12 RBI) and Marcell Ozuna (.304, 3 HR, 8 RBI) have done their best to keep the offense afloat, but this is a thin lineup at the moment.
This Braves lineup will face a difficult test in St. Louis Cardinals starter Erick Fedde. Ever since returning from his stint in Korea in 2023, Fedde has been excellent, posting a 3.31 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over 35 starts in the last two seasons. Fede has never been a great strikeout pitcher, and his control has been shaky to start the season, but he has three great starts in four appearances for St. Louis this year.
The Cardinals have been off to a far better offensive start, averaging 4.71 runs per game in 2025. Brendan Donovan, Nolan Arenado, and Lars Nootbaar are all posting on-base percentages over .390, consistently putting opposing pitchers into pressure situations with runners on base all year long.
However, St. Louis has averaged only 2.17 runs per game over their last six games, losing five of those contests. And while some of that struggle has been the product of excellent opposing pitching, we can’t expect a rebound tonight against Braves starter Spencer Schwellenbach.
There’s been no sophomore slump for Schwellenbach, who is 1-1 with a 2.55 ERA this season. With a 0.851 WHIP, he has done a great job of keeping runners off the bases, which has allowed him to go 6+ innings in three of his first four starts.
I have confidence in both pitchers tonight, while both offenses have been shaky at best — recently for St. Louis, and all season long in the case of Atlanta. With these strong starters likely going deep into tonight’s game, I’m expecting a low-scoring affair, in contrast to the relatively high total I’m seeing at many sportsbooks.
Caesars QuickPick: Our Cardinals vs Braves same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 8.5
Cardinals +1.5
Cardinals 3 or fewer runs conceded after 6 innings
I trust both pitchers to help us get to the Under tonight, which should also lead to a close game. That’s why I’ll be throwing in a bet on the Cardinals to cover the run line in my same-game parlay.
While St. Louis has lost four straight, Fedde is a dependable starter who has held three of his four opponents to one earned run or less, and that should be enough to at least keep the Cardinals close, and that’s all I need to take the underdog on the run line.
On that note, I’m also taking Cardinals pitching to give up three runs or less in the first six innings of tonight’s game. That’s really just a bet on Fedde, who has reached the six-inning mark in three of his four starts this year.
Outside of one disastrous start in Boston, Fedde has only allowed two runs total in his three other outings on the season, and I think he can keep an underperforming Atlanta lineup in check.
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Cardinals vs Braves odds
Cardinals vs Braves live odds
Cardinals vs Braves opening odds
- Moneyline: St. Louis +155 | Atlanta -185
- Run line: St. Louis +1.5 (-140) | Atlanta -1.5 (+120)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Odds courtesy of Caesars.
Cardinals vs Braves trend
The Under is 6-3 in the Cardinals' last nine games. Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Braves.
How to watch Cardinals vs Braves and game info
| Location | Truist Park, Atlanta, GA |
| Date | Monday, 4-21-2025 |
| First pitch | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | FDSN - Midwest, FDSN - South |
| Cardinals starting pitcher | Erick Fedde (1-2, 3.43 ERA) |
| Braves starting pitcher | Spencer Schwellenbach (1-1, 2.55 ERA) |
Cardinals vs Braves latest injuries
Cardinals vs Braves weather
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