We’ve got a busy betting slate around Major League Baseball today, including the series finale between the Toronto Blue Jays and the Kansas City Royals.
I’m eyeing Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s total bases prop at tremendous value with a plus-matchup on the mound in Seth Lugo.
Check out my free Toronto Blue Jays predictions and MLB picks for this August 3 matchup.
Blue Jays predictions for August 3
- Best bet
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases
(+115 at BetVictor) - SGP pick
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases
Joey Loperfido Over 1.5 total bases
Seth Lugo Over 2.5 earned runs
(+480 at BetVictor)
Today’s Blue Jays best bet: Lost cause for Lugo
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases (+115 at BetVictor)
The Toronto Blue Jays send veteran righty Chris Bassitt to the mound for today's series finale, while the Kansas City Royals respond with Seth Lugo, whose numbers are pretty solid so far this year with an 8-5 record to go along with his 3.03 ERA and 1.13 WHIP.
However, underlying metrics suggest regression could be ahead for the K.C. starter.
Lugo has an xERA of 4.17, which ranks him in the 17th percentile. He also ranks in the 27th percentile in xBA, while also giving up a lot of hard contact with an opponent hard-hit rate of 46.5%.
The 35-year-old veteran has a multi-pitch mix, but has the highest usage on his fastball and curveball.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. should feast on these offerings.
He owns the best xBA in all of baseball, while hitting .361 against the four-seamer with a .330 xBA against the curveball.
Guerrero Jr. also ranks in the 90th percentile in hard-hit rate, culminating in 40 extra-base hits this season, 29 of which have come against right-handed pitching.
Additionally, the Jays’ slugger has gone Over his posted total of 1.5 bases in eight of his last 12 outings, averaging 2.75 bases per contest.
Getting this number at +115 with this juicy of a pitching matchup is just great value.
Today’s Blue Jays same-game parlay (SGP)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases
Joey Loperfido Over 1.5 total bases
Seth Lugo Over 2.5 earned runs
Joey Loperfido has gone Over 1.5 total bases in three of his last five outings and is batting .373 this season, while crushing right-handed pitching with a 1.039 OPS.
Lugo's advanced numbers are way worse than his actual statistics, which suggests regression should be coming. In fact, it’s already started with his 4.56 ERA over his last four starts, conceding six home runs in the process.
Toronto’s lefty-heavy lineup should find success and score some runs to chase Lugo early.
Bet on the Blue Jays at BetVictor!
Canada's home for betting on the Toronto Blue Jays, elevate your game with BetVictor and get access to competitive odds, great daily promotions, and more — for all 162 games!
19+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Live Blue Jays odds for today
How to watch the Blue Jays today
| Location | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date | Sunday, August 3, 2025 |
| First pitch | 1:37 p.m. ET |
| TV | Rogers Sportsnet |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher | Chris Bassitt (11-5, 4.24 ERA) |
| Royals starting pitcher | Seth Lugo (8-5, 3.03 ERA) |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
