We're fading pitchers with our MLB picks for today, finding value in betting against a handful of struggling starters to continue being stuck in their rough patches.
Read on to see why our baseball experts are picking on Brayan Bello, Grant Holmes, Zac Gallen... and both pitchers in Miami/Minnesota.
MLB expert picks for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 Josh Inglis: MIA/MIN o9.5 |
+122 |
 Jon Metler: PHI ML |
-138 |
 Neil Parker: CHC ML |
+117 |
 Joe Osborne: TEX ML |
-122 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Marlins/Twins Over 9.5
Price: 46¢ (+122) at Polymarket
Mother Nature should help generate some runs in Minnesota today with 19-mph winds screaming out to center field. Eury Pérez has been giving up home runs on fly balls, while Bailey Ober owns a groundball rate that ranks in the bottom half of MLB starters (in fact, both pitchers carry groundball rates below 37%). Add in a Minnesota Twins bullpen sporting a 6.93 ERA over the last two weeks, and the runs could keep coming all game long. THE BAT is projecting 10.32 total runs.
Jon Metler's expert pick: Phillies moneyline
Price: 58¢ (-138) at Polymarket
When you can get value on a team with a true ace on the mound, it’s hard not to back the Philadelphia Phillies in this spot. Zack Wheeler gives Philadelphia a major advantage because he can work deep into games — and help them avoid the weaker middle relief portion of their bullpen. The Phillies are currently trading around 58 cents, but I make them closer to a 63-cent (-170) favorite, which leaves a solid edge on the number. The matchup also sets up well offensively for Philadelphia: Brayan Bello has struggled badly against left-handed hitters this season, allowing a .366 batting average and a 1.143 OPS. Even if Jovani Moran opens the game from the left side, Bello will still eventually have to face dangerous left-handed bats like Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper.
Neil Parker's expert pick: Cubs moneyline
Price: 46¢ (+117) at Polymarket
Atlanta righty Grant Holmes had his most recent turn in the rotation skipped after an ineffective four-start stretch that went to the tune of a 5.95 ERA while allowing a healthy 53.8% hard-hit rate, so I'm expecting the Chicago bats to pick up the tempo after being blanked in consecutive games against Texas this weekend. The Chicago Cubs also have a splash of statistical correction coming at the dish with their third-ranked .346 xwOBA well above their actual .325 wOBA over the past 12 games, and also considering Chicago has the second-highest walk rate and third-lowest strikeout percentage during that stretch.
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Rangers moneyline
Price: 55¢ (-122) at Polymarket
The Texas Rangers look like the right side tonight with both starting pitchers showing extreme home/road splits and Arizona being ice-cold at the plate. Zac Gallen has been strong in Arizona but owns a 7.13 ERA on the road, while Texas starter MacKenzie Gore has been far more effective at home. Add that the D-backs have scored two runs or fewer in five of their last six games, and it’s hard to trust them tonight — especially since the Rangers' bullpen has also arguably been the best in baseball over the last month.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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