Astros vs Twins Picks and Predictions: Blasting the Over

Even without trash cans, the Houston Astros have been blasting off this season, making them a great MLB betting squad for Overs. Tonight they get to face one of the worst starters in the league – find out your best play with our Astros vs. Twins picks.

Posted: Jun 11, 2021 11:12 AM ET Updated: Jun 11, 2021 5:00 PM ET Est Time: 3 min
Astros vs Twins Picks and Predictions: Blasting the Over
Photo By - USA Today Sports

The Houston Astros and Minnesota Twins begin a three-game set at Target Field on Friday night. The Astros have been raking lately and look to close the gap on the Oakland A's in the AL West.

Luckily for the 'Stros they face a stumbling Twins squad that has been hit hard by injuries and is installed as a +140 home underdog tonight.

Here are our best free Astros vs. Twins picks and predictions for MLB betting action on Friday, June 11, with the first pitch scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET

Astros vs Twins game info

Location: Target Field, Minneapolis, MN
Date: Friday, June 11, 2021
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
TV: Sportsnet, BSN

Astros vs Twins odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

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MLB Sharp Money and Line Movement Report

By Patrick Everson

This moneyline bounced around quite a bit at TwinSpires Sportsbook, which opened Houston -155, rose to -167, then backed up to -152. "We've seen some respected money on the Twins," TwinSpires trading analyst Zachary Lucas said. Still, the Astros are taking 70 percent of tickets and 80 percent of money. The total opened at 10.5 and moved to 11, then back to 10.5, with the Over seeing 55 percent of tickets/53 percent of cash.

Check out the full line movement for this game

Astros vs Twins betting preview

Starting pitchers

Jose Urquidy (4-3, 3.76 ERA): Urquidy surrendered nine hits and six runs in 4 2-3 innings in his previous outing last weekend against the Blue Jays.

That performance was not reflective of his overall body of work, with the 26-year-old pitching to a solid 3.76 ERA and 1.07 WHIP across 10 starts on the year. 

Matt Shoemaker (2-7, 7.28 ERA): Shoemaker has been embarrassingly bad this season, pitching to a 1.58 WHIP and allowing opposing batters to bat .286 through 50 2-3 innings.

In his last start, the 34-year-old was shredded for nine runs in the very first inning against the Royals. 

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Astros: Aledmys Diaz SS (Out).

Twins: Byron Buxton CF (Questionable), Rob Refsnyder LF (Questionable), Alex Kirilloff RF (Questionable), Mitch Garver C (Out), Max Kepler CF (Out), Kyle Garlick OF (Out), Luis Arraez 2B (Out).

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 17-4 in the Twins' last 21 games as an underdog. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Cubs.

Moneyline pick

Houston is coming off a 12-8 loss to the Red Sox last night but has still looked good over the last couple of weeks, winning eight of their previous 11 contests. The Astros are now 35-27 and are just one game behind the A's for first place in the AL West. 

The Twins are fresh off a victory over the Yankees, but things have not been going well in Minnesota. Rocco Baldelli's squad is 3-6 in its last nine games and sits at the bottom of the AL Central with a 25-37 record. 

The Twins have been impressive at the plate, ranking sixth in the majors with an OPS of .745. That said, they have been rocked by injuries, especially in the outfield.

They've had much less success when it comes to pitching and will be sending Matt Shoemaker to the mound tonight. The right-hander has been one of the worst starters in the majors this season, going 2-7 with a 7.28 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. 

Now he'll face off against an Astros squad that leads the majors with an OPS of .780, with that number surging to .984 over the last week. 

Although Astros starter Jose Urquidy is coming off a brutal performance against the Blue Jays, he has still fared much better than his Twins counterpart. Prior to that outing against Toronto, Urquidy had pitched to a 3.02 ERA with a 0.99 WHIP through nine starts. 

With the Astros 17-7 in the last 24 meetings between these teams, there is little reason to consider fading them at a decent price of -160.   

PREDICTION: ML Houston (-160)

Over/Under pick

The possible return of Byron Buxton could be a big boost for a Minnesota outfield that has been very banged up. Buxton was performing at an All-Star level earlier in the season and smashed two home runs in a rehab assignment at Triple-A on Thursday. 

Even without Buxton for the last month, the Twins have performed well at the plate thanks to sluggers like Nelson Cruz, Josh Donaldson, and Miguel Sano. Although they rank a modest 11th in the majors in runs per game, the Twins lead the majors in barrels and are second in hard-hit percentage, analytics that suggest they are due for an offensive breakout.

From top to bottom, the Astros have an absolutely loaded lineup and rank first in the majors in scoring with 5.43 runs per game. They've been even better lately, bumping that number up to 6.5 runs per game over their last 12 contests.

Expect Yuli Gurriel (.335 BA, 45 RBI) and company to be licking their chops at the sight of Shoemaker who has allowed a whopping 14 runs in his last 4 2-3 innings pitched. 

These two squads have been among the best Over bets in the majors this year. The Astros are 23-11-1 to the Over in their last 35 games, while the Twins are 35-13-3 O/U in their previous 51 contests. Don't shy away from the high total, take the Over. 

PREDICTION: Over 11 (-110)

Astros vs Twins betting card

  • ML Houston (-160)
  • Over 11 (-110)

Picks made on 6/11/2021 at 11 a.m. ET

MLB parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed today’s MLB Astros vs. Twins picks, you could win $21.02 on a $10 bet?

Use our MLB parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

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