Astros vs Mets Picks and Predictions: Houston Remains a Problem for New York

The Astros have absolutely dominated the Mets through three meetings this season and they haven't even deployed ace Justin Verlander yet. That changes tonight and our betting picks remain bullish on Houston to get the job done in Flushing.

Last Updated: Jun 29, 2022 8:58 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Justin Verlander Houston Astros MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Houston Astros embarrassed the New York Mets 9-1 at home on Tuesday. It was the third consecutive loss for the Mets against the Astros this season, dropping two last week in Houston. 

It doesn’t get any easier for New York as they now have to face Houston’s ace, Justin Verlander. The Mets are countering with Taijuan Walker, so the Under is definitely in play here. 

Can the Mets break their three-game losing streak to Houston, or will the Astros make it four in a row? Find out with our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Astros vs Mets on June 29.

Astros vs Mets odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Astros opened as -130 favorites but that line has dropped to -123 at WynnBet. The Mets began at +110 and have ticked up slightly to +113 by the time of this writing. The total started at 8.5 but is now at 8.0 with the Over at -110 and the Under -105. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Astros vs Mets predictions

Picks made on 6/28/2022 at 11:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Astros vs Mets game info

Location: Citi Field, New York City, NY
Date: Wednesday, June 29, 2022
First pitch: 1:10 p.m. ET
TV: AT&T Sportsnet, SNY

Astros vs Mets betting preview

Starting pitchers

Justin Verlander (9-3, .2.22 ERA): Hard to believe, but Verlander will be making his first start against the New York Mets since 2016, and his first appearance at Citi Field since 2010. The 39-year-old right-hander is back to form after a rough start 11 days ago against the Chicago White Sox. In that game he had his shortest outing of the season, allowing seven runs (four earned) on nine hits in just 3 2-3 innings. His most recent start was against the New York Yankees, and he pitched a gem, allowing just one run on four hits in seven innings. 

Taijuan Walker (6-2, 3.03 ERA): As if  Walker wasn’t effective enough, the 29-year-old righty added new pitches to his repertoire this season — a split-changeup and slider — and he has been enjoying one of his most productive campaigns. Walker is presently on a three-game win streak, and in those games, he has allowed a total of five runs on 16 hits in 18 2-3 innings. He has also struck out 24 while walking just four in that span. 

Weather

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Key injuries

Betting trend to know

The Under is 12-3 in the last 15 meetings in New York. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Mets

Astros vs Mets picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

As good as the Mets have been this season, they just can’t seem to solve the Astros, going winless through three games against the AL West powerhouse. 

Last night’s 9-1 drubbing was the largest margin of defeat yet. Now the Mets have to face Houston’s ace, Justin Verlander. There was a discussion that Verlander would be saved and start on Thursday against Gerrit Cole and the New York Yankees but manager Dusty Baker decided against holding him back another day, potentially risking throwing off his routine. 

Verlander faced the Yankees last Friday, allowing just one run on four hits in seven innings of work. 

Part of the reason for Verlander’s success against the Yankees was an uptick in velocity. His fastball, which usually averages 94.8 mph, hovered around 95.5 mph against the Yankees. 

Verlander is hoping for the same velocity on Wednesday. He hasn’t faced the Mets since 2016 but with his last outing as successful as it was, and the Mets struggling against the Astros, it looks like Verlander could pick up his 10th win of the season. 

Walker has performed well in his last three games, but they were against teams with a record under .500. In the first two starts of June, he went up against the San Diego Padres and the Los Angeles Dodgers and the results were much worse. He gave up six runs combined and 12 hits and took the loss in both. 

Facing a lineup as potent as Houston's could spell disaster for the right-hander. We're not buying his recent success against lesser opponents as a reason to fade the Astros tonight. 

Prediction: Astros moneyline (-123 at WynnBet)

Over/Under analysis

Most of the trends point to the Over, but with these two pitchers on the mound, the Under is the play tonight. Verlander’s season ERA is 2.22 and is 2.56 in June. Throw out one uncharacteristic shelling at the hands of the Chicago White Sox and Verlander has been money in his four other starts for the month. 

Verlander has allowed nine runs (five earned) across those four games while hurling seven frames each time out. 

His counterpart, Walker, is riding a three-game winning streak. He has pitched well against inferior lineups but seems to struggle when faced with elite clubs. Still, in those two games with the Padres and Dodgers, he averaged just three runs allowed.

As strong as both offenses have been this season, pitching should win the day here. Verlander and Walker should be able to keep opposing lineups at bay just enough to keep this game Under its total.

Prediction: Under 8 (-105 at BetMGM)

Best bet

The Astros have absolutely owned the Mets in the three games they have played this season, winning by scores of 8-2, 5-3, and 9-1. 

Now, throw in Verlander on Wednesday, and this could be another lopsided victory even with the Under on the table. 

It’s not only the Mets that the Astros are dominating when they win, either. In their last seven victories, Houston has beaten the opposition by two or more runs six times. 

The Astros are 9-1 in their last 10 road games against a right-handed starter, and 8-1 in their last nine road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

In addition, Houston is 10-2 in their last 12 against a team with a winning record and 11-4 in their last 15 road games. 

With Verlander on the mound, Houston scoring runs in bunches, plus their record against the Mets, I like the run line in Wednesday’s game. 

Pick: Astros -1.5 (+140 at Caesars)

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