The Boston Red Sox had won seven straight games heading into this three-game series with their AL East rival Toronto Blue Jays. With the two so close in the divisional standings, Boston had plans to continue their red hot winning streak and gain some separation.
The Blue Jays had other plans. Toronto has taken each of the first two games of this series and will go for a sweep tonight at Rogers Centre.
Check out our MLB picks and predictions for the Boston Red Sox and the Toronto Blue Jays on Wednesday, June 29.
Red Sox vs Blue Jays odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Toronto opened at -140 but money has come in on them, moving the line so the Blue Jays can now be had from between -156 and -175 depending on the book. The total opened at 8.5 across all books and has not moved as of Wednesday morning.
Red Sox vs Blue Jays predictions
Picks made on 6/29/2022 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
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Red Sox vs Blue Jays game info
• Location: Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON
• Date: Wednesday, June 29, 2022
• First pitch: 7:07 p.m. ET
• TV: NESN, Sportsnet
Red Sox vs Blue Jays betting preview
Nick Pivetta (8-5, 3.25 ERA): Pivetta has enjoyed a bounceback year for the Red Sox, posting the best ERA of his career. A 4.06 xERA indicates some regression is due, but his 3.56 FIP is solid. His strikeouts are down from 10.2 per nine innings a year ago to 8.7 this year, but he’s made up for it by issuing the fewest walks of his career (2.9 per nine).
Alek Manoah (9-2, 2.05 ERA): What a season it’s been for the massive 6-foot-6, 260-pound youngster. Manoah has been superb across his first 14 starts and will look to drop his ERA below 2.00 in this matchup. We saw encouraging signs a year ago across 111 2-3 innings, so he’s only been magnificent since joining the big leagues. His 4.39 K/BB ratio is stupendous and it’s buoyed mainly by a minuscule walk rate of 5.2%. Additionally, his 2.0% barrel rate is one of the best in the league.
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Betting trend to know
The Blue Jays are 38-18 in their last 56 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Blue Jays
Red Sox vs Blue Jays picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
The starting pitching edge in this matchup has to go to Toronto. Manoah has been one of the best pitchers in the MLB across 14 starts and has a very encouraging profile. He does a fantastic job of limiting walks and is tops among all starters with over 200 batted ball events in barrel rate (2.0%). Simply put, he avoids issuing free passes and is an expert at limiting hard contact.
Pivetta has been a good arm for the Red Sox this season, he’s just not in the same class as Manoah. I worry about his .259 BABIP, which is the lowest mark of his career by .29 points. His HR/FB ratio is also the lowest mark of his career by 5%. Eventually, those are both due to regress and Pivetta will start to have a run of bad luck, right? His 4.06 xERA likely paints a more accurate picture — not terrible, but not what he's been to date.
Both lineups have been red hot in recent games. Over the last 10 days, the Red Sox rank second in wOBA and fourth in wRC+. The Blue Jays are directly behind, ranking third in wOBA and fifth in wRC+ during that same span.
I don’t see a huge edge at the plate for either team, but I see a definite edge for Toronto in the starting pitching department, and the line movement in the Blue Jays’ favor is warranted. Manoah is one of the best pitchers in MLB until further notice. Some may be expecting a drop-off to come, but his peripherals are all superb and we have a decent sample size of over 200 innings across the last two seasons.
The Blue Jays are 38-18 in their last 56 home games vs. a right-handed starter and 4-1 in their last five during Game 3 of a series.
Prediction: Blue Jays moneyline (-156 at WynnBET)
Yesterday I selected the Over 9.5 as my best bet and it cashed in a 6-5 Blue Jays victory. Line movement knocked the total down from 10 to 9 in some spots. These teams didn’t care about a full run’s worth of line movement and cashed the Over anyway.
Both lineups have been among the best in the MLB over the last 10 days. In that span, both teams rank within the top 5 in both wOBA and wRC+.
Boston was hot both at the plate and on the mound during a seven-game winning streak heading into this series. They’ve scored seven runs across the first two games but have dropped both contests. They get a stiff test here in Manoah, who is the best starter they’ve faced in the last 10 days.
The Blue Jays have cashed the Over in eight of their last nine games. They have a decent matchup against Pivetta and the Over is 22-5 in their last 27 games vs. a right-handed starter.
The Over is 13-3 in the Blue Jays’ last 16 home games. That trend has been too hot to go away from now, so I lean toward the Over.
Prediction: Over 8.5 (+100 at WynnBET)
I want to target Manoah and the Blue Jays with my best bet. He’s been one of the game’s best pitchers in 2022 and I fancy Toronto’s chances of completing the sweep with him on the mound.
His props appear to be priced fairly and therefore I’m opting to target Toronto in the first five innings of the game. The moneyline is juiced to about -165 in most spots, which is more than I’m willing to pay. I believe that price does accurately reflect Toronto’s chances of taking a lead in the first half of this game, but I’ll opt to cut down on the juice by taking the -0.5 run line at -115.
Toronto has one of the hottest lineups in the league and their bats have been stellar at home (13-3 to the Over in its last 16 home games). I like their odds to be leading after five innings with an ace like Manoah on the bump.
Pick: Blue Jays first five innings -0.5 (-115 at DraftKings)