A's vs Yankees Picks and Predictions: Rumble in the Bronx

The Yankees narrowly escaped a tightly contested game against the A's on Tuesday, winning 2-1. Part of that was due to a tough pitching matchup. It will go somewhat differently today as the Bombers should make Cole Irvin's life miserable in the Bronx.

Last Updated: Jun 29, 2022 10:43 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Gleyber Torres New York Yankees MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

It's the final game of the three-game series in the Bronx today when the New York Yankees and Oakland Athletics meet. 

Last night featured a low-scoring pitcher's duel, a little late drama, and the Yankees prevailing by a 2-1 margin. With the win, New York became the fifth team in the live-ball era to win 55 of its first 75 games. With the loss, Oakland continues to fall into a deeper hole with the worst record in the league and is now 25-51 on the season, nearly a mirror image of the Yankees.

Can New York finish off the sweep? Find out in our MLB betting picks and predictions for Wednesday, June 30th, 2022.

A's vs Yankees odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Yankees opened up as firm favorites around -280. The odds haven't moved much from there. You can get Oakland as large as +250 on some markets by the time of this writing. The total opened at 8.5 and has also stayed static.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

A's vs Yankees predictions

Picks made on 6/29/2022 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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A's vs Yankees game info

Location: Yankee Stadium, New York City, NY
Date: Wednesday, June 29, 2022
First pitch: 1:05 p.m. ET
TV: NBC Sports California, YES

A's vs Yankees betting preview

Starting pitchers

Cole Irvin (2-5, 3.29 ERA): Irvin's numbers are as misleading as any in the league. His xERA is 5.29, which highlights how lucky he's been this season. Irvin has succeeded because of a slightly above-average chase rate and an innate ability to induce ground balls. It's hard to believe that's sustainable, though. Irvin's hard-hit rate, barrel rate, and other metrics are all signs that big bats are going to do damage against him.

Jameson Taillon (8-1, 3.19 ERA): Taillon has exceeded his preseason expectations. He was lit up in his last outing against the Astros for six earned runs, but that marked just the second time all season he's given up four or more earned runs. Taillon doesn't get many swings and misses, but he does everything else well. His walk-to-strike ratio is among the best in the league, and he does a great job of inducing soft contact.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Betting trend to know

The A's are 0-4 in their last four games at Yankee Stadium. Find more MLB betting trends for A's vs. Yankees

A's vs Yankees picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Run line analysis

A side in these games has been harder to take than it may appear. In the previous two games of this series, Oakland both had starting pitchers on the mound that weren't getting the proper market respect. Unfortunately, that's not the case today. The Yankees are a nightmare matchup for Cole Irvin, and I expect New York to roll this afternoon.

New York has a unique mix of chase contact and a high hard-hit rate, spelling doom for the soft-tossing lefty. 

Irvin's biggest issue has been giving up too much hard contact to big bats. His secondary issue is when teams "chase" and still can make contact. He could get away with it against the Braves a few weeks ago because he made them chase and miss. But Atlanta has the lowest chase contact rate in MLB, making that a cushy matchup for his set of skills.

That wasn't the case against a team like the Phillies, where he gave up four earned runs in five innings. At the time, Philly was in the Top 10 in hard-hit rate. The Guardians presented another issue for Irvin. They rank first in baseball in chase-contact rate, so they naturally did a good amount of damage, tagging him for four earned runs on three home runs and seven hits. 

The two things that have plagued Irvin are the two things the Yankees excel at. First, they hit the ball hard, ranking second in hard-hit rate. Second, they make contact when they chase, ranking sixth in chase contact. Even though the second part of that has slowed down a bit lately, I don't expect it to be an issue today.

My projections are seeing the most significant edge on alternate run lines. I have the Yankees winning by four runs over 55% of the time and over four runs around 45% of the time. I'm going for broke here as this has the makings of a blowout. 

Prediction: Yankees' alternate run line -3.5 (+165 at DraftKings)

Over/Under analysis

This handicap will be much the same as the above. Again, we will target Irvin on the mound and the issues the Yankees batters present him. 

Irvin has the 21st-highest barrel rate among qualified pitchers. His struggles speak to his issues with hard-hit balls just as much as any stat. The Yankees have seen a few pitchers in this same area of barrel rate and, to no surprise, they've succeeded. Here are a few of their last performances against starting pitchers in the Top 25 with the highest barrel rate:

  • Bruce Zimmerman (fourth-highest barrel rate): four earned runs in six innings.
  • Yusei Kikuchi (seventh): three earned runs in four innings.
  • Beau Brieske (eighth): three earned runs in six innings.
  • Jose Berrios (11th): five earned runs in five innings.
  • Elvin Rodriguez (12th): 11 earned runs in four innings.

Omitted from this list was Jose Urquidy, who ranks 18th in barrel rate. He was brilliant in his last outing against the Yankees, surrendering just one earned run in seven innings.

There were plenty of oddities in that game but, generally speaking, he's a much better pitcher than Irvin. The Yankees followed the same script in almost all of the other games against similar pitchers. 

I'm rolling with the Yankees to win the race five runs today. I see about a 10% edge on this, and the Athletics' offensive issues even strengthen that proposition. 

Prediction: Yankees win race to five runs (-105 at FanDuel)

Best bet

To no surprise, we'll target Irvin one last time. In this instance, we'll look at the home run market.

We'll take a look at Gleyber Torres' home runs this year and why he may hit one today. Torres has 13 homers this season, with eight coming in the Bronx. He returns to the lineup today after missing a few games with a minor injury. 

Of his 13 home runs…

Four have come against ground ball pitchers, which Irvin is

Four have come against pitchers that use a mix of fastball and breaking balls, which Irvin does.

Eight have against left-handed pitchers, which Irvin is

Another player that is strong in these categories is Anthony Rizzo. I'll likely play him as well but see more value on Torres.

Pick: Gleyber Torres to hit a home run (+560 at FanDuel)

MLB parlays

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