The 2026 U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club is officially underway, and all eyes will be on betting favorite in the U.S. Open odds Scottie Scheffler's bid to complete the career Grand Slam.
Here is why Scheffler headlines my favorite early golf picks for the week, alongside a course breakdown of what it takes to win at the famed Shinnecock Hills Golf Club, starting on Thursday, June 18.
⛳ U.S. Open: Key takeaways
- Best early bet: Scottie Scheffler to win (+550) – There isn’t a player on the planet with a better stylistic or statistical fit for Shinnecock, and I believe Scheffler’s No. 1 goal in 2026 was peaking to win this event and complete the career Grand Slam.
- Best early value: Patrick Reed to win (+5000) – With a T4 finish at the 2018 U.S. Open, Reed heads back with a T12-T10 run in majors to start 2026, and his tee-to-green game and short-game prowess are perfect fits for what this course demands.
- Course: Shinnecock Hills Golf Club is a historic and grueling 7,440-yard Par 70 layout characterized by William Flynn’s ingenious wind-defying triangular routing, wide fairways, and punishing crowned greens that demand elite tee-to-green precision.
- Weather: The early forecast features a volatile opening round with 30 mph wind gusts and potential thunderstorms, followed by dry, sunny conditions with persistent 15-25 mph winds testing players throughout the weekend.
- Expected cut: The 36-hole cut for the 2026 U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills will trim the 156-player field down to the low 60 scores and ties following Round 2.
📊 U.S. Open odds
The U.S. Open runs at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club from Thursday, June 18, through Sunday, June 21.
| Golfer |  |
|---|---|
 Scottie Scheffler |
+550 |
 Rory McIlroy |
+1200 |
 Jon Rahm |
+1400 |
 Xander Schauffele |
+1800 |
 Cameron Young |
+2000 |
 Matt Fitzpatrick |
+2000 |
 Tommy Fleetwood |
+2000 |
 Ludvig Åberg |
+2200 |
Odds from BetMGM, one of our best golf betting sites.
Check out the full U.S. Open field.
Best bets card
Outright: Scottie Scheffler (+550) - The World No. 1 can capture the career Grand Slam with a win, and Scheffler scoring statistics and ball-striking metrics are a perfect fit for Shinnecock.
Top 20: Matt Fitzpatrick (+100) - Cruising along a three-month heater consisting of three wins and two solo-seconds across nine events, Fitzpatrick has the game to contend again this week.
Top 20: Sam Burns (+175) - With consecutive Top 10s in the U.S. Open and spikes in approach and around-the-green play, Burns is in the right form to tackle this track.
Top 20: Patrick Reed (+175) - Pair his T4 here in the 2018 U.S. Open with a T12-T10 run in the past two majors, and Reed is a priority in this market at this price point.
Top 20: Maverick McNealy (+250) - With three straight Top 25s in majors and another six across his latest 2026 events while gaining true strokes tee-to-green, around-the-green and on the green McNealy’s game is dialed in.
Why I’m betting Scottie Scheffler to win the 2026 U.S. Open
While the 2026 PGA Tour season, including the first two majors, probably hasn’t gone exactly to plan for Scottie Scheffler, the World No. 1 is still a statistical darling and perfect stylistic fit for what it will take to win at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club.
Additionally, I wholeheartedly believe he’s circled this event to peak at this season to complete the career Grand Slam.
Plus, here are his statistical ranks ahead of the 2026 U.S. Open:
- True strokes gained tee-to-gree: 1st
- True strokes gained on approach: 13th
- True strokes gained around-the-green: 3rd
- True strokes gained putting: 13th
- Adjusted scoring average: 1st
- Par 4 scoring average: 1st
- Birdie-or-better percentage: 1st
- Bogey avoidance: 1st
- Driving accuracy: 26th
- Scrambling: 2nd
- Three-putt avoidance: 25th
I'd be comfortable betting Scheffler to win the U.S. Open down to a price of +500.
Course breakdown: What wins at Shinnecock Hills?
As the oldest incorporated country club in the United States (1891) and one of the USGA’s five founding clubs, Shinnecock Hills Golf Club carries a legendary history, having hosted both the second U.S. Open and second U.S. Amateur back in 1896.
The present layout, masterfully designed by William Flynn in 1931, plays as a demanding 7,440-yard Par 70. Flynn was renowned for routing his designs to incorporate existing terrain and prevailing coastal elements.
This is brilliantly highlighted by three sets of consecutive holes that form strategic triangles, ensuring that, regardless of the wind direction on any given day, players are constantly faced with a variety of shot-making challenges. The layout retains its classic integrity while benefiting from minor modern adjustments by the design team of Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw, a restoration project completed in 2013 that widened fairways and reclaimed the open, windswept landscape.
Shinnecock features just a pair of Par 5s, amid multiple punishing Par 4s stretching over 500 yards. While the wide fairways look inviting and encourage aggressive play off the tee, Flynn's unique triangular routing means specific angles into the greens are absolutely critical to survive the shifting gusts. Furthermore, the firm, crowned green complexes feature shaved runoffs and subtle contours that severely penalize imprecise approach shots.
The 2018 U.S. Open serves as the most recent baseline, and Brooks Koepka won at 1-over par, leaning on an elite tee-to-green performance while leading the field in true strokes gained on approach. He narrowly edged out Tommy Fleetwood, who carded a historic final-round 63 by dialing in his own approach for +4.33 true strokes gained on the field.
Obviously, there’s a massive premium on approach play into the challenging Shinnecock green complexes, and finding the fairway with the proper angles to attack the greens and control spin is also critical to navigate Flynn's layout.
- Grueling 7,440-yard Par 70 featuring only two demanding Par 5s
- Triangular hole routing to maximize wind challenges
- Minor modern adjustments were completed in 2013 to restore classic playing angles
- Multiple punishing Par 4s stretching over 500 yards
- Crowned green complexes featuring shaved runoffs and deceptive contours
- 151 sand bunkers on the property
- Shinnecock Hills puts a premium on fairways hit and short-game precision
Players to watch
-
Xander Schauffele: A complete game throughout the bag has enabled Schauffele to card a pair of wins to go along with eight Top 10s across 14 majors since the beginning of 2023. He’s poised to contend again this week.
-
Jon Rahm: The ball-striking and short-game wizard finished T2 at the PGA Championship and has oodles of experience on links-style tracks that resemble the demands of Shinnecock. Of course, Rahm’s a two-time major champion with a U.S. Open title.
Key stats & player profiles to target
- True strokes gained on approach
- True strokes gained around the green, scrambling percentage
- Bogey avoidance
- Adjusted scoring average
- Par-4 scoring
- Three-putt avoidance
Players to watch
-
Scottie Scheffler: There isn’t a player on the planet who can match Scheffler’s statistical profile. He paces this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green, adjusted scoring average, Par-4 scoring, and bogey avoidance in 2026, after all.
-
Matt Fitzpatrick: Ranks second in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green, seventh on approach, and second in the around-the-green metric across his past nine events, which includes three wins and two solo seconds. Fitzpatrick also sits third in both adjusted scoring average and bogey avoidance this season.
Top finishing position picks
Pick 1: Matt Fitzpatrick Top 20 (+100)
This price jumps off the page considering the unmatched heater Matt Fitzpatrick is on. He’s bookended a nine-tournament run with a pair of solo seconds at the The Players and RBC Canadian Open with three more wins while ranking second in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green, seventh on approach, and second in the around-the-green metric.
- Course Fit: Game is dialed throughout the bag to tackle Shinnecock
- Recent Form: No one enters with better finishes the past three months
- Key Stat: Ranks third in adjusted scoring average in 2026
Risk: Potentially, Fitzpatrick’s on the downslide of the highlighted heater.
Pick 2: Sam Burns Top 20 (+170)
The American has six Top 20s across his past nine events, including in back-to-back events while gaining true strokes across the board with encouraging spikes on approach (+0.95) and around-the-green (+0.51) across his past three events. Of course, Sam Burns also has consecutive Top 10s in the U.S. Open.
- Course Fit: Elite work on the greens will be Shinnecock separator
- Recent Form: Encouraging spike in approach and around-the-green play
- Key Stat: Paces field in true strokes gained putting in 2026
Risk: Burns is a notoriously inconsistent ball-striker.
Pick 3: Patrick Reed Top 20 (+175)
There is no question Patrick Reed has the tee-to-green game and short-game creativity to excel at Shinnecock Hills again, and he heads to the 2026 U.S. with consecutive strong finishes in majors.
- Course Fit: Finished T4 in 2018 U.S. Open at Shinnecock
- Recent Form: T12-T10 start to 2026 majors
- Key Stat: Reed has gained +2.18 true strokes tee-to-green in 2026 majors
Risk: Limited competitive play could catch up to Reed.
Pick 4: Maverick McNealy Top 20 (+250)
With consecutive Top 20s in major championships and four more across his past six 2026 events while gaining true strokes tee-to-green, around-the-green and putting, Maverick McNealy has my attention at this price.
- Course Fit: Ranking 25th in adjusted scoring confirms he can play tough tracks
- Recent Form: True strokes gained across the board this season
- Key Stat: 17th on Tour in birdie-or-better percentage in 2026
Odds movement & market notes
Because the 2026 U.S. Open odds have been available since the conclusion of last year’s edition; it's a mature market with a lot of insights already available through BetMGM.
Unsurprisingly, Scottie Scheffler (+550) has received the highest betting handle (27.1%) by a considerable margin and is the largest liability at the shop followed by Cameron Young (+2000) and Matt Fitzpatrick (+2000). Additionally, Young opened at +6600, while Fitzpatrick was +10000.
The 2023 U.S. Open winner, Wyndham Clark (+4000), also have a huge odds move after opening as a U.S. Open long shot at +10000.
On the flip side, Bryson DeChambeau (+2500), Ludvig Aberg (+2200) and Collin Morikawa (+4000) have seen their numbers climb, after respectively opening at +800, +2000 and +2500.
It’s also notable that the 2018 U.S. Open winner at Shinnecock, Brooks Koepka (+3000) was bet down from an opening +4000. So, after his withdraw from the RBC Canadian Open last weekend, it will be interesting to follow his betting handle and odds leading into Round 1 on Thursday.
How to watch the U.S. Open & tee times
How to watch:
- Thursday: 6:30 a.m-5 p.m. ET (USA), 5-8 p.m. ET (NBCSN/Peacock)
- Friday: 6:30 a.m-1:30 p.m. ET (USA), 1:30-7:30 p.m. ET (NBCSN/Peacock)
- Saturday: 10 a.m.-12 p.m. (USA), 12-8 p.m. ET (NBCSN/Peacock)
- Sunday: 10 a.m.-12 p.m. (USA), 12-7 p.m. ET (NBCSN/Peacock)
Tee times:
U.S. Open betting FAQ
Who is the 2026 U.S. Open favorite?
Scottie Scheffler is a +550 betting favorite at BetMGM.
When is the 2026 U.S Open?
The 2026 U.S. Open will be played from Thursday, June 18, to Sunday, June 21.
Where will the 2026 U.S. Open be played?
The 2026 U.S. Open will be played at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southampton, New York.
What are U.S. Open FRL markets?
First Round Leader (FRL) markets center around which golfers will be in the lead following the first 18 holes of the tournament.
How do U.S. Open matchup bets work?
When betting U.S. Open matchups, you're selecting which golfer will score better between the two golfers listed in that specific market. There are 18-hole, single-round matchups, in addition to tournament-long, 72-hole matchups.
What is the U.S. Open cut line?
The U.S. Open features a cut to the Top 60 players and ties after Round 2.
Are U.S. Open odds the same across all sportsbooks?
You'll see slight to significant variations in odds across sportsbooks for the U.S. Open; it's always good practice to check multiple sports betting sites for the best odds.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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