The PGA Tour makes its annual stop at Vidanta Vallarta Golf Course in Vallarta, Mexico, and my VidantaWorld Mexico Open picks feature Doug Ghim, Johnny Keefer and Corey Conners ahead of Round 1 on Thursday, Oct. 29.
Here are my latest golf picks for this week's PGA Tour event at Vidanta Vallarta in Mexico.
📇 VidantaWorld Mexico Open top picks
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📊 VidantaWorld Mexico Open odds
The VidantaWorld Mexico Open runs at Vidanta Vallarta in Mexico from Thursday, Oct. 29, through Sunday, Nov. 1.
| Golfer |  Probability |
|---|---|
| Wyndham Clark | 6.2% |
| Ben James | 4.9% |
| Doug Ghim | 4.7% |
| Tom Kim | 4.2% |
| Ben Griffin | 4% |
| Johnny Keefer | 3.2% |
| Blades Brown | 2.8% |
| Marco Penge | 2.8% |
| Corey Conners | 2.5% |
| Andrew Novak | 2.1% |
| David Ford | 2.1% |
| Henry Hall | 2% |
🔍 What I'm looking for at the VidantaWorld Mexico Open
Vidanta Vallarta Golf Course is a resort-style Greg Norman signature design along the Ameca River, and this will be the fifth time it hosts the PGA Tour's Mexico Open. The par-71 course features an unusual layout, with five par-3s, nine par-4s, and four par-5s.
A redesign ahead of the 2026 event included shortening the course to 7,337 yards, in addition to creating a four-quadrant routing for optimal fan viewing and a stadium-style buildout on the par-3 17th hole.
Characterized by generously wide fairways and large, sticky Paspalum greens, Vidanta Vallarta has historically rewarded elite tee-to-green play and distance off the tee.
There hasn’t been a past champion ranking outside the top three in true strokes gained tee-to-green, and three of four have paced the event in the metric.
Additionally, though the course requires long approach shots from beyond 200 yards, long-iron play from the 175–200 yard range remains incredibly important.
The wind off the Pacific coastline typically acts as the course’s primary defense. However, with early 2026 forecasts calling for calm conditions, the tournament is likely to be a low-scoring birdie fest with a winning mark around 20-under par again this year.
Key stats
- True strokes gained tee-to-green, true strokes gained approach
- Adjusted scoring average, birdie-or-better percentage
- Proximity 200+ yards, Proximity 175-200 yards
- Par 3 scoring
🏆 VidantaWorld Mexico Open picks to win
Best bet to win: Doug Ghim
With five consecutive top-20 finishes, including his solo-second in the Bank of Utah, Doug Ghim’s game is peaking ahead of a trip to a track that fits his skill set.
- Course fit: Fifth in true strokes gained tee-to-green during T8 here in 2025
- Recent form: Leads field in true strokes gained tee-to-green during five-event heater
- Key stat: Seventh in birdie-or-better percentage in 2026
Outright pick: Johnny Keefer
A spike in putting from Johnny Keefer has my attention this week. He can overpower Vidanta and ranks 10th in this field in true strokes gained putting across his past eight events.
- Course fit: Keefer has the distance to score on this forgiving layout
- Recent form: Consecutive Top 10s before T33 last week
- Key stat: 11th in field in true strokes gained tee-to-green in 2026
💣 VidantaWorld Mexico Open long-shot picks
Best long-shot pick: Corey Conners
While the elite ball-striker is debuting at Vidanta, Corey Conners was second in true strokes tee-to-green during his T3 at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship.
- Course fit: Vidanta rewards Conner’s peaking tee game and iron play
- Recent form: Elite tee-to-green play during T3 last week
- Key stat: Sixth in field in true strokes gained tee-to-green across past five events
Long-shot pick: Rasmus Hojgaard
Rasmus Hojgaard is too talented to be trading this far down the board. He’s a five-time DP World Tour winner and will be playing this track for the second consecutive year.
- Course fit: Respectable T34 in Vidanta debut
- Recent form: Only trading this low because of recent ball-striking decline
- Key stat: 14th in Par 3 birdie-or-better percentage in 2026
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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